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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Predicted League Tables: Review

At the beginning of the season, the lads all gazed into their crystal balls and predicted how they thought the Championship, League One, and League Two tables would end up.

So, nine months on, just how well did they do and who was the most accurate in their forecasts?

Here's how the points scoring system works:

For every spot-on prediction of where a club would finish, ten points are rewarded. Things then descend on a scale of five points for being one position off down to one point for being five places off.

Predictions that were between six and nine places off pick up no points.

A prediction ten places off means one point is taken off the total. Being 11 places off equates to a two point penalty all the way up to five points off for being incorrect by 14 positions.

A prediction inaccurate by more than 14 places sees a 10 point penalty dealt out.

So, just how well did the lads do?

Here's what they believed the Championship table would look like, League One, and League Two.

Here's how the lads scored for each division:

Lakes scored 21 points from the Championship. He was boosted by five points hauls from predictions for Swansea, West Brom, Watford, and Coventry. On the other hand, he lost 20 points from Newcastle and Blackpool.

Nobes's final total from the Championship was 26 points. He scored the only spot on prediction in the division with Derby for ten points. He lost the same number of points from Newcastle, however.

Turls trailed well behind the other two - scoring just ten points. Most of his damage was caused by Blackpool, Crystal Palace, and Sheffield Wednesday. Plymouth, West Brom, and Watford each earned him five points however.

So the scores after the Championship stand:

1. Nobes: 26
2. Lakes: 21

3. Turls: 10

Into League One:

Lakes was nothing short of sensational in this division with his predictions. In total he clocked up 53 points - including spot ons for Norwich, Colchester, and Stockport. His only big losses were minus four from Brentford and Tranmere.

However he was outdone by a consistent Nobes who registered 68 points. Only one side - Southend - caused him any negative points. He also achieved spot-ons with Hartlepool and Stockport.

On a big improvement on his first score, Turls racked up 50 points from League One. That included a spot on from Bristol Rovers. However, he suffered a ten point deduction for Southend.

So, after two divisions, the scores stand at:

1. Nobes: 94
2. Lakes: 74

3. Turls: 60

Things would be decided by how well the lads performed in League Two.

In reverse order this time and, Turls needed a huge improvement to win. A huge improvement is what he got. Ten point hauls from Grimsby, Accrington, and Macclesfield. Although he lost ten points from Hereford.

In total he scored 37 points - taking him to a grand total of 97 points.

Lakes scored just 15 from League Two. His best performances came from Bury, Northampton, Notts County, and Barnet. However, he suffered a ten point loss from Aldershot as well as minus five for Dagenham.

After three divisions that left Lakes on a grand total of 89 points - ruling him out from winning.

So, Nobes needed just four points from League Two to win the competition. A sure thing, right? Wrong.

Suffering a ten point hit from Aldershot and further five point deductions for Lincoln and Dagenham, he scored just three points - five points from Hereford being his best score.

That left the final table looking like this:

1. Nobes: 97
= Turls: 97
3. Lakes: 89

The only fair way to decide who won was through the number of spot-on predictions. With Derby, Hartlepool, and Stockport - Nobes had three.

However, with Macclesfield, Accrington, Grimsby, and Bristol Rovers - Turls's score of four spot-on predictions saw him edge ahead by the closest of margins.

Meaning, while he might have lost his Prediction League crown to Nobes, Turls's pre-season predicted tables were officially the most accurate.

Overall, the lads were the most accurate in their predictions for League One, and least accurate in League Two. Nobes achieved both the highest and lowest scores in a particular division.

The highest scoring team were Stockport - who earned the lads 21 points in total. The most punishing team were Blackpool - with minus 24 points afflicted altogether.

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