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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Prediction League Review

The Soccer AM/MW Prediction League is over for another season. It was a fierce, topsy-turvy battle that raged for nine months but, eventually, Nobes managed to wrestle the crown away from Turls.

Here's the story of this season's League.

Weeks 1-5

The early pacesetter in the Prediction League was Nobes. Three spot-on predictions in the opening seven fixtures saw him leaving the other pair behind. By the end of Week 5 though, his lead had been cut to a single point as a three horse race developed.

Nobes: 18
Turls: 17

Lakes: 17

Weeks 6-10

Nobes continued to set the pace for the next few weeks, but was unable to hold off Turls's good run and was overtaken at the top on Week 9. The defending champion had opened up a five point lead by the end of Week 10 - as he began to look ominous.

Turls: 36
Nobes: 31

Lakes: 30

Weeks 11-15

Lakes suddenly found his form during Weeks 11 and 12. Three spot on predictions in a row lifted him from the bottom to the top. That saw Nobes slip to last place as Turls responded to Lakes's challenge to resume top spot on Week 15.

Turls: 45

Lakes: 43

Nobes: 41

Weeks 16-20

Nobes found his form again as the mid-point of the season approached, and overtook Lakes into second. However, the consistent predicting of Turls meant his challenge was always being kept at arms' length as the table began to spread out.

Turls: 59
Nobes: 54

Lakes: 49

Weeks 21-25

Eight correct results on the spin saw Nobes continue his challenge to catch Turls at the top, but he still trailed the leader by three points as 2010 dawned. A good run from Lakes helped drag himself back into the title race after once slipping well behind.

Turls: 68
Nobes: 65

Lakes: 61

Weeks 26-30

There was no separating Turls and Nobes in their performance over the next five weeks - both scored 15 points as the long-time leader clocked up 16 weeks at the summit. Lakes had once again slipped off the pace - now eight off the top.

Turls: 83
Nobes: 80

Lakes: 75

Weeks 31-35

Week 31 was the turning point of the campaign. Ten points from Nobes saw him storm to the top, followed by seven points in Week 33. He left Turls and an improving Lakes fighting it out for second as a nine point gap emerged.

Nobes: 107
Turls: 98

Lakes: 97

Weeks 36-40

The title appeared in the bag after Nobes collected six points on Week 36. That meant Turls and Lakes had to focus on avoiding the wooden spoon. By Week 37, Lakes had moved off the bottom for the first time in 12 weeks.

However, just three more points collected in the season saw him overtaken by Turls - who put together a late charge to comfortably take the runners-up spot.

Final table:











Here's how the lads scored for each team:

Points from Forest:

Nobes: 54
Turls: 48

Lakes: 46

Nobes earned almost half of his points from Forest results - bettering Turls on his own team. Indeed, Forest results helped the lads to the most points of any team.

Points from Preston:

Lakes: 41
Turls: 38

Nobes: 31

Lakes scored his highest points total from his own team. Preston were notably the weakest point for Nobes, who earned the fewest points from PNE and only achieved three spot-on predictions.

Points from Boston:

Nobes: 36
Turls: 26

Lakes: 21

The lads earned fewest points from Boston. Especially Lakes, who failed to predict a spot-on scoreline for the Skyrockets all season.

They were arguably the secret of Nobes's success though - he never predicted them to lose and they helped to earn him ten points more than Turls.

Points from own team:

Turls: 48

Lakes: 41

Nobes: 36

Despite coming out top overall, Nobes actually fared worst on scoring points from his own team. Although he didn't score the best for Forest, Turls's points show, when it came to judging their own team, he was most accurate.

Correct results:

Nobes: 81
Turls: 75

Lakes: 73

Nobes had a clear lead over the other two in terms of the number of matches in which he correctly predicted the result, if not the scoreline.

Correct scorelines:

Nobes: 20
Turls: 18
Lakes: 17

Despite winning with a nine point gap from Turls and 13 ahead of Lakes, Nobes was only marginally better at correctly predicting scorelines.

Weeks on top:

Turls: 19
Nobes: 18

Lakes: 3

Nobes actually spent fewer weeks on top of the Prediction League than Turls. The former Champion looked on course to make it back-to-back titles as he ruled the roost between Weeks 15 and 30.

However, once Nobes - who spent the first eight weeks at the summit - re-assumed top spot, he stayed there for the final ten weeks of the season.

So there we have it, the analysis is over and the Prediction League is at an end for 2009/10.

It will return in August where Nobes will see whether he can be the first person to defend the title. Will Turls reclaim top spot, or will Lakes win his first title?

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