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Tuesday, March 09, 2010

League One Focus

Tuesday, and it's time to turn our attention towards what's going on at both ends of League One.

Promotion:



It seems a long time ago when Leeds were running away with the League One title. Indeed, it's now Norwich who appear in pole position for top spot.

Charlton and Colchester have also re-discovered some form to keep themselves in contention for second spot.
Can either one of them oust Leeds?

As it stands:

........................P...GD...PTS
1. Norwich.........35...37....75
2. Leeds............34...30....68
------------------------------------
3. Charlton........35....23....66

4. Colchester.....34....17....63


Turls:
I predicted last month that the Norwich express would win League One and with them sitting seven points clear of a stuttering Leeds, I can't see any reason for that opinion to change.

They've scored 73 goals and I can't see them drying up anytime soon.

They should be joined by Leeds. The Peacocks have had an awkward run of form of late but I still think they have the strength to get to the line in second place.

Grayson is a good manager and Beckford will have a strong finish to the season as he tries to impress potential clubs that he would be a good signing in the summer.

Summary: Norwich (Champions), Leeds.

Can Phil Parkinson lead Charlton to an instant return to the Championship?

Nobes:
Leeds were my pre-season tip for the title, but I have to say I'm now not sure they will win it. Something's happened at Elland Road and I think they should have strengthened more during January.

Norwich are on such a strong run and have so much firepower that it's hard to see past them to finish top.

I still fancy Leeds to finish second though, they're a cut above a Colchester side who rely too much on their home form and a Charlton side who are a bit too erratic.

Summary:
Norwich (Champions), Leeds.


Play-offs:



Things are still tight in the race for the play-offs with sides swapping places every week. Swindon and Millwall appear best placed with Huddersfield right in the mix too.

Milton Keynes and Bristol Rovers still harbour hopes that a late run could see them sneak into the top six come the end of the season though.

As it stands:

..............................P...GD..PTS
5.
Swindon..............33...11....60
6.
Millwall...............34...15....59
------------------------------------------
7. Huddersfield........35....18....58
8. MK Dons.............34.....1.....52
9. Bristol Rovers......34....-3.....52


Turls:
Charlton are in the play-offs. Despite impressing no-one this season, they have gone about their business in a quiet and unassuming manner and should finish 3rd.

Colchester are only four points clear of 7th but the games in hand over the rest will open up this gap.

That leaves two spots up for grabs. Swindon are in fine form and should have the mental fortitude to forget about their walloping at the hands of Bristol Rovers on Saturday. They have the strength to make the play-offs and I think they will.

I don't like Millwall and, although I fancy them to make the top six, I refuse to acknowledge them as promotion candidates.

For this reason, I reckon Paul Ince will guide the MK Dons on an inspired end of season run which will see them glide into the play-offs.

Summary:
Charlton, Colchester, Swindon, Milton Keynes.

Danny Wilson's Swindon Town are fighting it out to finish in the top six

Nobes:
I think it is a battle now between three teams for two places. It's very difficult to call it, although I still make Swindon the favourites of the three to definitely finish in the top six.

Danny Wilson is an experienced campaigner and has a track-record of steering clubs into the play-offs.

Millwall still have both Huddersfield and Swindon - on the final day - to play, so if they win those head-to-heads then I fancy the Lions to make the top six once again.

I like the way Huddersfield are going about their business with a young team playing exciting, attacking football. However, I think they might just fall short this time around.

Summary:
Colchester, Charlton, Swindon, Millwall.


Relegation:



While Stockport appear doomed, it's anyone's guess who will fill the other three relegation spots in League One.

Poor runs of form have seen Southend and Exeter join struggling Wycombe in the drop zone. Oldham and the improving-Tranmere remain in trouble and Gillingham are also too close for comfort.

As it stands:

.............................P....GD....PTS
18.
Gillingham........35...-11......37
19.
Tranmere..........33...-22......36
20. Oldham............32...-14......33
------------------------------------------
21.
Exeter..............34...-15......32
22.
Southend..........34...-16......32
23. Wycombe..........35...-25......29
24. Stockport..........34....-35.....23


Turls: Stockport are dead. I still think Wycombe will join them as they ship goals too easily and the teams above them have games in hand.

Surprisingly, I don't think the positions will change over the coming months. Southend lost a big game at the weekend to Hartlepool and Exeter are struggling.

I think Tranmere could still be dragged into it but they should have the "quality" - for lack of a better word - to avoid the drop. Not a good year to be a promoted club then.

Summary:
Stockport, Wycombe, Southend, Exeter.

Long-reigning Southend manager Steve Tilson has a relegation battle on his hands

Nobes:
There are a few sides down there - Oldham and Southend particularly - who I didn't expect to be involved. I can't believe either are two of the worst teams in League One this term.

Stockport and Wycombe certainly are and will be relegated. I expect Exeter to join them, they are a club who rose too quickly from the Conference straight through to the third tier and are now out of their depth.

It's difficult to know who else will go as there are a clutch of sides very tightly packed together and one win can change things massively. If I had to stick my neck out I'd go for Gillingham, who can't buy an away win.

Summary: Stockport, Wycombe, Exeter, Gillingham.


We'll have the latest goings-on from League One in a month's time. Tomorrow, the spotlight falls on the runners and riders in League Two.

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