Stuck In A League You Can't Get Out Of

After Grimsby part company with manager Neil Woods, Nobes considers why relegated Football League clubs find it so hard to bounce back quickly and gain promotion from the Conference.

Neil Woods was unable to keep Grimsby up or get them challenging for promotion

Out with the Woods, but not yet out of them. Grimsby's decision to part ways with boss Neil Woods came as little surprise.

However, nor should their struggle to mount any kind of promotion challenge in this year's Conference come as a major shock. The top tier of Non League football is notoriously difficult to escape at the first time of asking.

Indeed, since the introduction of automatic promotion and relegation between the Football and Non Leagues 24 years ago, just four teams have managed to achieve that particular feat.

When you consider that two of those instant returns, by Lincoln and Darlington, came in the first three years, and recent statistics are made all the more damning.

It has been the same story after the introduction of a two-up two-down in 2003/4. The first two years saw Shrewsbury and Carlisle win promotion at the first time of asking. Since then though, no club has managed it.

To put that into context, in the last five seasons five sides in the Championship, three in League One, and four in League Two have all done what no relegated team into the Conference has accomplished.

True, the obvious point to make would be all three higher divisions offer at least one more promotion place, and a couple in the case of League Two.

However, when you consider that very few relegated sides even challenge for a place in the Conference play offs, the issue of how many teams get to go up doesn't really figure in the debate.

The stats show that the Conference is the most difficult division to instantly gain promotion from - as Woods and Grimsby have found to their respective cost.

It's been a bumpy ride for the Mariners, who saw the curtain come down on their century in the Football League in May after an horrific season which saw them, at one point, go 25 games without winning.

However, if they thought that life would get easier as a big fish in a small pond, the Lincolnshire outfit have been given a rude awakening. In fact, their results paint a typical picture of a Football League club trying to adjust to life in the Non Leagues.

It's not as though results have been disastrous, they have taken four points off big-spending Crawley and kept two clean sheets in the process. High flying Luton, Wrexham and Newport have also all been seen off at Blundell Park this term.

Contrast that though, with embarrassing defeats to the likes of Tamworth and Hayes & Yeading. Struggling sides Southport, Eastbourne, and Barrow have all returned from a trip to the North Sea coast with a point to show for their efforts.

For fans whose club were, ten years ago, rubbing shoulders with some of England's finest in the Championship, this season they've seen Town fail to record victories at places like Gateshead and Forest Green Rovers.

The feats of Shrewsbury and Carlisle have proved hard for others to match since

Perhaps this is a major part of the problem which holds back relegated sides though. Nowhere else can clubs enter a lower division with such a superiority complex and expectation of success.

Most Football League fans probably couldn't even tell you where Forest Green are from, let alone expect their side to return from a visit to their trip to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds without maximum spoils.

It's part of the culture shock of adapting to life in the Non Leagues. Travelling to small, ramshackle grounds with antiquated facilities and some teams whose home support is the kind taken away from home in the League.

Fans have high hopes and expectations that such sides will be easily swotted aside - and players must undoubtedly learn to cope with the pressure that they are under.

They're also aware that the longer they remain in the Conference, the harder it becomes to escape - making the stakes in that first season all the more higher - and all the more difficult to meet.

Fans must also come to terms with games against their side being treated almost as cup finals. Non League stalwarts enjoy nothing more than taking a big Football League scalp - and cutting some egos down to size in the process.

It's also not uncommon for smaller sides to travel away and park the bus, supporters' coach, as well as their entire team and fan base in front of their goal in an attempt to claim a point.

Trying to break down such defensive tactics is hard enough - and the longer it goes on the more frustrated fans with high expectations come, and soon playing at home becomes more of a hindrance than an advantage.

Grimsby have only lost twice on home soil this term, but the seven draws at Blundell Park have undoubtedly been key in why they find themselves nine points off the play offs in 9th, albeit with a couple of games in hand.

Throw in an early exit in the FA Cup and a going out of the FA Trophy after a humiliating loss at Chasetown last month, and Woods's job always appeared to be hanging by a thread.

Now under-fire chairman, John Fenty, has the opportunity to make the right appointment to guide Town back into the Football League at the earliest opportunity.

He will be well advised to take his time when deciding his next manager though, as a quick look around the Conference Premier shows a whole host of ex-Football League clubs struggling to find their way back.

Mansfield are now in their third season in the Conference, posting finishes of 12th, 9th, and they currently lie in 13th. A fourth try to escape awaits the Stags next season.

Cambridge have spent the majority of this term looking over their shoulders towards the bottom, and will reflect on successive play off final defeats in 2008 and 2009 as hugely missed opportunities.

Last year's play off winners Oxford spent four seasons in the Conference

Same with York. Last season's play off final losers to Oxford are now in their seventh season in the Conference and as well as another play off appearance in 2007, they have also ended up in the bottom half on three occasions.

Wrexham are only now making an impact in the top five in their third season in the fifth tier, and Darlington - relegated alongside the Mariners last term - are only in mid table and finding life much tougher than they did in the '80s.

I must admit, I was someone who expected the Quakers to have performed better than they have with experienced and proven Conference manager Mark Cooper at the helm.

However, it has taken him time to turn around the sinking ship in the North East which fell to relegation with barely a whimper 12 months ago.

It's true to say as well as that, like the Quakers, often relegated Football League clubs enter the Conference in a shambolic state on the pitch and in financial disarray off it.

The loss of revenue relegation can cause inevitably means a turnover in playing squad, which can often mean a slow start as players gel and adapt to a new set-up.

No matter their size and history, they are simply not in a condition to quickly adapt to the rough and tumble and rigours of the great unknown that is the Non League game - and it shows.

And even when they do, the pressure to succeed can get the better of even the most illustrious and big clubs - Oxford took four years to escape the Conference.

Even the Luton side which, barring a 30 point deduction, would have finished in mid table in League Two in 2009 could only hold down a play off place last season - where they failed to progress through the end of season lottery.

Part of their problem had been holding onto a manager, in Mick Harford, who was so woefully incapable of orchestrating a promotion push. The same could probably be said of Woods - who was fortunate to keep his job after presiding over Grimsby's easily avoidable relegation.

Were the ageing Jim Smith and Brian Little really the men to lead Oxford and Wrexham's respective first promotion pushes, too? It was no surprise that the Oxen, when appointing the canny Chris Wilder, finally did escape the Non Leagues.

Even Shrewsbury had the foresight to hire an experienced Non League name in Jimmy Quinn to guide them back to the Football League at the first time of asking in 2004 - before rightly jettisoning him after struggling to make the step up.

Grimsby must now be similarly pragmatic - looking to select someone well versed in coping with the unique demands of the Conference, and winning promotion from it.

Stalybridge's Jim Harvey has an impressive CV at that level, and current Luton assistant Gary Brabin led Cambridge into the top five. Martin Foyle, in charge at York last season, has also been linked with the job and would seem a decent pick.

The wrong choice, and the Mariners risk settling in too comfortably to life in the Conference. Then the only Cod Army on the march to the Football League will be that of ambitious Fleetwood.

Continually Foyled

After Martin Foyle's resignation as York boss, Nobes suggests the Minstermen are in danger of becoming part of the Conference furniture.

Martin Foyle twice took City to Wembley during his spell as manager

During his time as York City boss, Martin Foyle was living out of a local B&B for six nights a week.

In contrast, now in their seventh season in the Conference, City's place in Non League's top tier is beginning to look more than simply a temporary residence.

Of course, it could have been very different. Foyle's men were surprise qualifiers for the play offs last term having flirted with the drop 12 months earlier when the ex-Port Vale boss took charge.

However, the 47-year-old engineered a turnaround in fortunes and, after seeing off Luton in the semi finals, they faced Oxford at Wembley for a chance to regain their place among England's elite.

It wasn't to be on the day, with Chris Wilder's side emerging 3-1 victors. It was the closest City had come to getting back into the League though.

They had also qualified for the play offs in 2007, but on that occasion lost out in the semis to Morecambe.

Having had to wait three years after that Morecambe loss to have another go in the play offs, City fans will now be concerned how long they will have to go until they get another opportunity.

Indeed, a look back into the history books makes depressing reading for the Bootham Crescent faithful.

Automatic relegation from the Football League was introduced in 1987, with one side taking the plunge into the Conference before being extended to two in 2003.

Ten different clubs were relegated in those 16 years, and two others - Maidstone and Aldershot - lost their place due to financial problems.

However, of those ten, Lincoln, Darlington, and Colchester all made swift returns to the League.

Halifax returned only to go down again and then out of existence altogether. Scarborough and Newport were not as fortunate - both clubs ultimately folding and phoenix clubs being established in their place.

Chester were relegated in 2000, returned in 2004 but, after relegation in 2009, then went out of business last season.

The other three - Barnet, Doncaster and Hereford have all since returned after spells of four, five, and nine years respectively, and remain in the 92 club today.

Of those sides relegated since two-up two-down was introduced in 2003, long-standing Football League clubs Shrewsbury, Exeter, Carlisle, Oxford, and Torquay all bounced back.

Kidderminster, Rushden, and Boston - promoted in successive years at the turn of the Millennium - all spent five years in the League before dropping back down to more familiar territory.

That leaves Cambridge United - relegated in 2005 - as the only other traditional League club besides York to currently be enduring a prolonged spell in the Conference.

The U's couldn't have come much closer though, and were beaten play-off finalists in both 2008 and 2009.

Like their League days, York's Bootham Crescent is a thing of the past

However, like City, they too have fluctuated between campaigns of challenging in and around the top five and struggling towards the bottom and fighting relegation.

The key, it appears, is getting out as quickly as possible. The longer you stay down, the harder it becomes to escape.

The problem for both is the longer they spend in the Conference the more the question must be considered: are they actually that out of their place?

After all, despite being the county town, when it comes to the footballing hotbed of Yorkshire, the Minstermen are very much the poor relations.

City will never be able to compete against the two Sheffield giants or Leeds. They will also always play second fiddle to the mining towns of Barnsley, Doncaster, and Rotherham, not to mention a resurgent Huddersfield.

Of course, it's not these clubs who York must try to compete against on the pitch. Instead, it is the wave of new Football League clubs who have made the breakthrough in the last decade.

The likes of Burton, Morecambe, Stevenage, and Dagenham may not have the pedigree of City, but they appear to be upwardly mobile clubs with an eye on the future.

It is reflected in the fact that three of them now play in purpose built stadiums, and the Daggers have been steadily re-developing their Victoria Road ground to coincide with their transition into the League.

A quick look around Bootham Crescent however and, for all its traditional lower league charm, it very much has the look of a past era.

While others clubs have been moving forward, the likes of York - who endured huge financial troubles in 2002 - have been standing still. It's no surprise they have been overtaken therefore.

It's no surprise either then that Minstermen supporters are now pressing hard for the construction of a new community stadium that the club can use. They know, as with many other clubs, it is crucial to their future.

Indeed, it shapes the entire question of where they wish their future to be. Without realising it, York are quickly becoming part of the Conference furniture.

Not only are they facing competition for promotion from an increasing number of former Football League outfits like Grimsby, Mansfield, and Wrexham, but also from wealthy upstarts like Fleetwood and Crawley.

It was a sign of the times that City were unable to hold onto their prized asset - striker Richard Brodie - when the latter came calling with a six figure bid during the summer.

Replacing Brodie, whose goals fired them to the brink of promotion last term, was never going to be an easy task. His loss, coupled with City's slow start this term, probably made Foyle's mind up that he could take the club no further.

The Brodie transfer was a worrying sign, too. In the past, City only lost striker Andy Bishop to a Football League club in Bury and they were able to reject a bid of £200,000 for fellow hitman Clayton Donaldson before he left on a free to Hibernian.

Selling Brodie to a Conference rival - and a smaller, if richer, club at that - would have stuck in the throats of York fans. If they can't compete with Crawley, can they compete at all?

Is the harsh reality that, despite once, during the '70s, spending a couple of years in the second tier of English football, York have now found a more natural level? Is simply returning to the Football League now the height of their ambition?

Just as their surroundings in an historic city hark back to a different era, are the Minstermen themselves going to be consigned to simply being part of the Football League past?

Fan Files: Conference Play Off Final

Ahead of the Conference play-off final, our Fan Files turn the spotlight on a supporter of both Oxford United and York City to gauge their mood ahead of Sunday.

Oxford fan Clive Browning has been following the club's fortunes for over 40 years.

In that time he's witnessed the highs of the 1980s - successive championships and their three year spell in the top flight of English football. That included victory in the 1986 League Cup final.

However, he's also been around for the pain of relegation from the Football League in 2006 - the lowest point in his time following United.

Now though, he looks forward as his club appears to be moving in the right direction both on and off the pitch.

So Clive, you're in the play-off final and one game away from a return to the Football League - how are you feeling?

Nervous. Hopeful. Excited. I would easily class this game as the biggest in our history since that 1986 League Cup final. I'd even go as far to say that it's bigger.

I think that we had an almost blase attitude to being in the Football League. Relegation out of it happened to other clubs, not us, and when it did it was an immense shock.

We now recognise what we had was very special. Being a member of the 92 is very special and we desperately want to be part of it again. Okay, it won't be the end of the world if we lose, but it will be terribly disappointing to have got so close and failed.

Oxford defeated Rushden & Diamonds to make the play-off final on Sunday

At one point you were sitting top and looking good for automatic promoton - what went wrong?

I think as an Oxford fan you are always waiting for something to go wrong!

In any other season we would have been streets ahead of the pack but Stevenage, to their credit, were always just a few points behind us - keeping up the pressure.

The period over Christmas when the weather was so bad certainly didn't help. The postponements and our cup ties meant we only had two league games in January.

The fact that Stevenage were able to get games in to close the gap on us really disrupted our rhythm.

A severe back injury to our key play maker, Adam Murray, which has sidelined him 'til next season, also played a major part.

Up to this point, Chris Wilder had been a very lucky manager, with most of his decisions coming off. His meddling with the formation and unsuitable loanees only served to disrupt the team spirit though.

Under pressure from the fans, he then made a few silly statements to the press which he probably regrets now. In the last month of the season though, he seemed to regain his composure and with a more settled side results started to pick up again.

Wilder's a young manager who shows all the signs of being very good one day. Hopefully he would have learned a valuable lesson from this experience and, should we still be in this league next season, I'm sure he would go about things differently.

Oxford have sometimes been accused of not handling pressure situations. Do you feel that's changed with this team after your win against Rushden in the semis?

I was quietly confident going into this tie because people were expecting us to fail. In a way it took the pressure off us.

Leading up to the play-offs we'd actually got a little run together and the spirit in the side seemed to be back to what it was like at the beginning of the season when we started so well.

The big test was the home tie in the second leg. Too often it's been packed to the rafters and then we've failed miserably. You sense now that we have players for the big occasion.

We glimpsed that earlier in the season when we beat Luton 2-0 at home in a highly charged atmosphere, and again on Monday when we looked comfortable in what was a really pressured situation.

Your boss, Chris Wilder, took Halifax to the 2006 play-off final, are you hoping his experience will benefit you?

Wilder knows the pain of losing in a play-off final, so hopefully that will motivate him to prepare our team in a positive way.

Of course, York have played at Wembley in the FA Trophy final last season, so they'll probably be going into the game hoping the experience will benefit them too.

It's a cliche I know, but on the day the winner will be the team that handles the pressure best.

Oxford manager Chris Wilder has tasted play-off final defeat in the past

Who are the key men for you in the final if you're to emerge victorious?

I'm loathe to single out individuals because when we play well it's down to each man in the team performing to their maximum potential.

James Constable is the obvious focal point because of all the goals he's scored. However, we have players like Adam Chapman, Matt Green, Jack Midson, Simon Clist, Sam Deering, and Alfie Potter - all who could be matchwinners on the day.

How do you feel about York as opponents? Are you happier to be facing them than Luton?

Everybody expected Luton vs. Oxford to be the final but I wasn't surprised because, from our two games against them during the season, York are a very good side and you treat them lightly at your peril - as Luton found out.

Our first game of the season was at home to York so, in some ways, our season has come around full circle and it seems fitting that we end with them.

In our two league encounters they have been the better side and we were extremely fortunate to come away with four points.

In the home game they dominated for 88 minutes and were 1-0 up, but we scored two very late goals in added time to nick all three points. They will be out for revenge and will be very dangerous opponents.

If you do get promoted, how do you think you'd do in League Two next season?

I'm confident we would do well. A top half finish shouldn't be beyond us.

There's talk that promotion could net us around £700,000 and, while I know that a portion of that money would have to be used to service some of our debt, I'm pretty sure Wilder would be given funds to strengthen the team.

For the first time in many years the club actually feels as if it's moving forwards again. Chris Wilder has had a lot to do with that, but the man who appointed him, chairman Kelvin Thomas, must take the major credit.

The previous chairman, Nick Merry, while being a staunch Oxford man, was an absolute disaster at running the club. His poor PR skills alienated fans and possible business business people alike.

His dealings with Firoz Kassam hit such an all time low that the former owner was ready to bring the bailiffs in over unpaid bills.

Thomas has smoothed over the rift with Kassam by massaging his ego and has managed to increase our revenue from the stadium after agreeing a 50 per cent slip over advertising and catering where we'd previous got none.

He then listened to the fans concerns and, in partnership with the OXVOX supporters group, a 12th Man fund has been implemented in which the supporters raise funds through various activities for the manager to buy or loan players.

There are even rumours that we could re-introduce a reserve side through such funding.

There's a positivity around the place that hasn't been there since the early 1990s and a feeling that, if we get back into the League, we have a solid foundation on which to build for the future.


York supporter David Husband has been following City's fortunes for 24 years. His finest memory was their 3-0 win in the 1995 League Cup against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The Minstermen's relegation from the Football League in 2004, unsurprisingly, ranks as his worst moment following his club.

So, David, you're into the play-off final then, did you expect to be here when the season kicked off?

No, most York fans expected mid-table after last season's relegation battle. It's now hard to remember we were in trouble right until we beat Weymouth on the final Friday of last season.

Many people were tipping Luton as favourites in the play-offs, but you comfortably saw them off in the semis. Does that make you favourites now?

No way. Oxford are the favourites as they finished eight points clear of us in the table. They also got back into form in the last month of the season, while we laboured after we confirmed our places after the 5-0 win over AFC Wimbledon.

Martin Foyle's the man in charge, and City fans must be very pleased with the job he's done so far?

Excellent. The thing is he can be a bit too defensive which, for a former striker, is surprising.

Even after last season - when we were strong at the back - he still brought in Neil Barrett, Alex Lawless, and Luke Graham, who has been excellent since signing from Mansfield.

Martin Foyle has turned around York's fortunes this season

You're up against Oxford in the final. Are you pleased to be facing them, or would you rather you were playing Rushden?

I wasn't that fussed who we played as, whoever we faced, would have been a tough game.

Then again, we do owe Oxford one as we've outplayed them twice and, somehow, only got one point off them. Both league games against Rushden were tight affairs though.

Who are the key players for York if you are to beat Oxford on Sunday then?

Our front two and the centre back. Richard Brodie and Michael Rankine are a handful - as are the Oxford front pair - so David McGurk and Luke Graham will have to be on top form.

There's also Alex Lawless - who is our playmaker, along with Neil Barrett.

How do you think you'd do next season in League Two should you win the final?

The top half of the Conference is no worse than the bottom half of League Two.

We've beaten Crewe this season in the Cup and - from what I've seen from the League Two games on Sky - us, Oxford, and Stevenage should at least be mid-table next season.

York were 2-1 losers to Oxford when the pair met on the opening day of the season

Finally, what would returning to the Football League mean to York fans if you do manage it?

It means the world to us. We've been down here for six years now and we feel it's our time to go back.

Other than one season under Billy McEwan where we got knocked out by Morecambe in the play-offs, we've been poor down here - and the runs in the FA Trophy doesn't hide that fact in City fans' eyes.

Conference Play Off Final: Preview

..Oxford United vs. York City

Sunday May 16, 17:00, Wembley

As it was in the beginning, so shall it be in the end.

After starting the season against one another, 281 days later Oxford United and York City bring the curtain down on this year's Conference campaign as they do battle at Wembley to determine which of them will reclaim their place in the Football League.

Both clubs suffered play-off heartbreak three years ago. However, one of them will avenge that failure on Sunday and take their place amongst the coveted 92 from next season.

In Oxford's case, it was a route to promotion they hoped to avoid after their blistering start to the campaign. However, Chris Wilder's side eventually subsided as Stevenage's momentum took them to the title.

A top five finish was probably beyond York's expectations before they kicked off their campaign. A consistent season under Martin Foyle's leadership though has earned them a chance to cap it off with promotion.

Irrespective of their pre-season ambitions, defeat would still be a bitter pill for both to swallow come full time. Victory, however, will end what both clubs deem an exile from their rightful home in the Football League.

For York, that exile has been six long years where they have sometimes struggled at the lower reaches of the Conference Premier.

Only once have they looked like claiming promotion back after a disastrous loss of form saw them slide out of the Football League in 2004. That was in 2007, when Billy McEwan's men were beaten in the play-offs by Morecambe.

Now though, former Port Vale boss Foyle has dramatically turned around the Minstermen's fortunes after initially guiding them away from relegation trouble last season.

The professional manner in which they dispatched play-off favourites Luton in their semi-final - winning both legs 1-0 - is testament to the progress that has been made at Bootham Crescent over the past 12 months.

Their success has also been matched by that of top scorer Richard Brodie. With 26 goals, he's been the Conference's leading marksmen this term - form which has seen him linked with Championship clubs.

In City's path are an Oxford team who are making the first appearance at Wembley since winning the League Cup against QPR in 1986.

Unbelievably, just twenty years on from their highest point, the Oxen were relegated from the Football League in 2006.

For a club who have attracted gates over 10,000 during their time in Non League, they have struggled to make a return to League Two that most felt would be a formality.

That included blowing a lead over Dagenham in 2007's title race. They had to settle for a spot in the play-offs instead, where Exeter overturned a first leg deficit to knock out United.

Now though, under the management of Chris Wilder, and with the strikes of 22-goal man James Constable, they stand on the brink of being members of the 92 once again.

Even after defeating Luton in the semi-finals, it's hard to argue that York are the favourites in this game. They finished eight points off their opponents and will be outnumbered in support by fans from Oxfordshire.

However, it's a tag of underdogs that they will undoubtedly relish in what I anticipate will be a very tight affair.

The pressure is on Wilder's men - but this team have shown an ability to deal with such expectations. The first goal will be crucial, particularly if York get it, but I would still back Oxford to emerge victorious come the final whistle.

Nobes' Prediction: Oxford United 2 York City 1

Conference Play Offs

Four sides hoping for a return to the Football League meet tomorrow evening as the play-offs in the Conference Premier begin.

Champions Stevenage Borough have already sealed their place in next season's League Two. Which one of Luton Town, Oxford United, Rushden & Diamonds, and York City will join them though?

Nobes takes a look ahead to the showdown in Non League's top division.

Final table:

.....................................P....GD....PTS
1. Stevenage..................44....55......99
-------------------------------------------------
2. Luton Town................44.....44.....88
3. Oxford United.............44.....33.......86
4. Rushden & Diamonds....44.....38......79
5. York City...................44.....27......78
-------------------------------------------------
6. Kettering Town...........44....10.......66


Ties:

Luton Town vs. York City



Luton are hoping to become only the fifth team to instantly bounce back from relegation to the Conference. York are looking to end a six-year spell outside the Football League.

First leg: Thursday April 29, 19:45, Bootham Crescent
Second leg: Monday May 3, 15:00, Kenilworth Road


Luton Town

Pre-season favourites for the title, Luton struggled to adapt to life in the Conference and parted company with manager Mick Harford in October.

Since then, they've been on a tremendous run of form under new boss Richard Money [right]. He's won 17 and lost just four of his 27 games in charge at Kenilworth Road.

That run helped propel them up to second, and push local rivals Stevenage almost all the way for the title.

The play-offs represent a second chance to claim an instant return to the Football League.


York City

It's been a much better campaign for the Minstermen this term after coming close to relegation last season. Boss Martin Foyle helped them to avoid the drop and has set about re-building their fortunes this season.

After a slow start, they were consistently in the race for the play-offs and, at one stage, looked like being outside contenders for the title.

A poor run dashed any hopes of an automatic return to the Football League, which they dropped out of in 2004.

They will be hoping for better luck in the play-offs than in 2007 though - where they lost to eventual winners Morecambe in the semi finals.


Key players:

Play-offs are notoriously tight and close encounters - so having a man who can nick a goal from limited opportunities is crucial.

Both York and Luton have two of the Conference's top strikers in their respective ranks. Richard Brodie [left], with 26 goals to his name, is the division's top marksmen, and City hopes will rest on his shoulders.

Tom Craddock has been in similiarly good form for the Hatters this season, and has found the back of the net 23 times to date.

Both sides will hope their leading men will be able to add to their tallies - possibly with a promotion winning strike.


Form Guide (last six games):

Luton Town: DDWDWW
York City: LDWLWW


Previous meetings:

York City 0-0 Luton Town, February 16, Bootham Crescent
Luton Town 1-1 York City, October 20, Kenilworth Road


Prediction:

The games between the two teams this season are an indication of how evenly matched this ecounter could be.

Both have, at stages this season, been in title winning form, but also have gone through poor spells.

However, it's hard to argue against Luton just shading this over two legs. They have been in great form in 2010 and have the crucial home advantage in the second leg.

York's best bet will be if they can go to Bedfordshire with a lead to protect. If not, then expect Luton to progress to Wembley for a second successive season.

Prediction: Luton Town



Oxford United vs. Rushden & Diamonds



These two teams were relegated with one another from League Two in 2006. Since then, Oxford have looked the more likely to return, but Diamonds have experience of winning promotion from the Conference in 2001.

First leg: Thursday April 29, 19:45, Nene Park
Second leg: Monday May 3, 15:00, Kassam Stadium


Oxford United

For a long time, it seemed as though Oxford were going to gain promotion back to the Football League as Conference winners.

However, the long time leaders saw the wheels well and truly came off their title challenge in March. Five games without a win allowed Stevenage to seize top spot and leave the Oxen trailing behind.

They managed to regain their form and finished the season with four wins and draw in their last six matches - including keeping five clean sheets.

This is their second appearance in the Conference play-offs. In 2007 they squandered a first leg lead to lose to Exeter City on penalties in the semi final.

Boss Chris Wilder [right ]was also a Conference play-off final loser with Halifax in 2006.


Rushden & Diamonds

Arguably the surprise package in this season's Conference, Diamonds have been born-again under the management of Justin Edinburgh.

They raced out of the blocks and hit second place before suffering a dip in form. However, they came on strong in the second half of the campaign - emphasised by the fact they've lost just twice in the league in 2010.

That included a run of 11 unbeaten matches that helped cement their place in the top five and a first ever crack at promotion via the Conference play-offs.

They'll be aware though that one of their two defeats this calendar year was at the hands of play-off opponents Oxford.


Key players:

With 22 goals, James Constable is Oxford's top scorer this season and could play a crucial part in their hopes of winning the play-offs. With 64 goals, only York in the top five have scored fewer than United.

By contrast, Rushden's success has been more of a team effort. Despite their leading scorer, Lee Tomlin [left], only finding the back of the net on 14 occasions this term, they've scored 13 goals more than the Oxen.

Defences may well come out on top over the two legs and someone like Oxford keeper - and former Diamond - Billy Turley, could play an essential role. Particularly if penalties are involved.


Form Guide (last six games):

Oxford United: LWWDWW
Rushden & Diamonds: DWLWDD


Previous meetings:

Rushden & Diamonds 1-1 Oxford United, March 24, Nene Park
Oxford United 1-0 Rushden & Diamonds, February 16, Kassam Stadium


Prediction:

It's difficult to know who the momentum is with in this tie - and momentum can often play an important part.

Rushden have certainly been more impressive in 2010 and have made themselves very difficult to beat.

However, but for their wobble in March, Oxford have been very consistent all season and are almost invincible on home soil - where they will play the second leg.

They have also managed to get themselves back on form, barring a last day loss at Eastbourne.

I don't envisage many goals over the two games, but Oxford's home advantage in the deciding leg and the experience of their boss Chris Wilder might just edge it their way.

Prediction: Oxford United