Stuck In A League You Can't Get Out Of

After Grimsby part company with manager Neil Woods, Nobes considers why relegated Football League clubs find it so hard to bounce back quickly and gain promotion from the Conference.

Neil Woods was unable to keep Grimsby up or get them challenging for promotion

Out with the Woods, but not yet out of them. Grimsby's decision to part ways with boss Neil Woods came as little surprise.

However, nor should their struggle to mount any kind of promotion challenge in this year's Conference come as a major shock. The top tier of Non League football is notoriously difficult to escape at the first time of asking.

Indeed, since the introduction of automatic promotion and relegation between the Football and Non Leagues 24 years ago, just four teams have managed to achieve that particular feat.

When you consider that two of those instant returns, by Lincoln and Darlington, came in the first three years, and recent statistics are made all the more damning.

It has been the same story after the introduction of a two-up two-down in 2003/4. The first two years saw Shrewsbury and Carlisle win promotion at the first time of asking. Since then though, no club has managed it.

To put that into context, in the last five seasons five sides in the Championship, three in League One, and four in League Two have all done what no relegated team into the Conference has accomplished.

True, the obvious point to make would be all three higher divisions offer at least one more promotion place, and a couple in the case of League Two.

However, when you consider that very few relegated sides even challenge for a place in the Conference play offs, the issue of how many teams get to go up doesn't really figure in the debate.

The stats show that the Conference is the most difficult division to instantly gain promotion from - as Woods and Grimsby have found to their respective cost.

It's been a bumpy ride for the Mariners, who saw the curtain come down on their century in the Football League in May after an horrific season which saw them, at one point, go 25 games without winning.

However, if they thought that life would get easier as a big fish in a small pond, the Lincolnshire outfit have been given a rude awakening. In fact, their results paint a typical picture of a Football League club trying to adjust to life in the Non Leagues.

It's not as though results have been disastrous, they have taken four points off big-spending Crawley and kept two clean sheets in the process. High flying Luton, Wrexham and Newport have also all been seen off at Blundell Park this term.

Contrast that though, with embarrassing defeats to the likes of Tamworth and Hayes & Yeading. Struggling sides Southport, Eastbourne, and Barrow have all returned from a trip to the North Sea coast with a point to show for their efforts.

For fans whose club were, ten years ago, rubbing shoulders with some of England's finest in the Championship, this season they've seen Town fail to record victories at places like Gateshead and Forest Green Rovers.

The feats of Shrewsbury and Carlisle have proved hard for others to match since

Perhaps this is a major part of the problem which holds back relegated sides though. Nowhere else can clubs enter a lower division with such a superiority complex and expectation of success.

Most Football League fans probably couldn't even tell you where Forest Green are from, let alone expect their side to return from a visit to their trip to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds without maximum spoils.

It's part of the culture shock of adapting to life in the Non Leagues. Travelling to small, ramshackle grounds with antiquated facilities and some teams whose home support is the kind taken away from home in the League.

Fans have high hopes and expectations that such sides will be easily swotted aside - and players must undoubtedly learn to cope with the pressure that they are under.

They're also aware that the longer they remain in the Conference, the harder it becomes to escape - making the stakes in that first season all the more higher - and all the more difficult to meet.

Fans must also come to terms with games against their side being treated almost as cup finals. Non League stalwarts enjoy nothing more than taking a big Football League scalp - and cutting some egos down to size in the process.

It's also not uncommon for smaller sides to travel away and park the bus, supporters' coach, as well as their entire team and fan base in front of their goal in an attempt to claim a point.

Trying to break down such defensive tactics is hard enough - and the longer it goes on the more frustrated fans with high expectations come, and soon playing at home becomes more of a hindrance than an advantage.

Grimsby have only lost twice on home soil this term, but the seven draws at Blundell Park have undoubtedly been key in why they find themselves nine points off the play offs in 9th, albeit with a couple of games in hand.

Throw in an early exit in the FA Cup and a going out of the FA Trophy after a humiliating loss at Chasetown last month, and Woods's job always appeared to be hanging by a thread.

Now under-fire chairman, John Fenty, has the opportunity to make the right appointment to guide Town back into the Football League at the earliest opportunity.

He will be well advised to take his time when deciding his next manager though, as a quick look around the Conference Premier shows a whole host of ex-Football League clubs struggling to find their way back.

Mansfield are now in their third season in the Conference, posting finishes of 12th, 9th, and they currently lie in 13th. A fourth try to escape awaits the Stags next season.

Cambridge have spent the majority of this term looking over their shoulders towards the bottom, and will reflect on successive play off final defeats in 2008 and 2009 as hugely missed opportunities.

Last year's play off winners Oxford spent four seasons in the Conference

Same with York. Last season's play off final losers to Oxford are now in their seventh season in the Conference and as well as another play off appearance in 2007, they have also ended up in the bottom half on three occasions.

Wrexham are only now making an impact in the top five in their third season in the fifth tier, and Darlington - relegated alongside the Mariners last term - are only in mid table and finding life much tougher than they did in the '80s.

I must admit, I was someone who expected the Quakers to have performed better than they have with experienced and proven Conference manager Mark Cooper at the helm.

However, it has taken him time to turn around the sinking ship in the North East which fell to relegation with barely a whimper 12 months ago.

It's true to say as well as that, like the Quakers, often relegated Football League clubs enter the Conference in a shambolic state on the pitch and in financial disarray off it.

The loss of revenue relegation can cause inevitably means a turnover in playing squad, which can often mean a slow start as players gel and adapt to a new set-up.

No matter their size and history, they are simply not in a condition to quickly adapt to the rough and tumble and rigours of the great unknown that is the Non League game - and it shows.

And even when they do, the pressure to succeed can get the better of even the most illustrious and big clubs - Oxford took four years to escape the Conference.

Even the Luton side which, barring a 30 point deduction, would have finished in mid table in League Two in 2009 could only hold down a play off place last season - where they failed to progress through the end of season lottery.

Part of their problem had been holding onto a manager, in Mick Harford, who was so woefully incapable of orchestrating a promotion push. The same could probably be said of Woods - who was fortunate to keep his job after presiding over Grimsby's easily avoidable relegation.

Were the ageing Jim Smith and Brian Little really the men to lead Oxford and Wrexham's respective first promotion pushes, too? It was no surprise that the Oxen, when appointing the canny Chris Wilder, finally did escape the Non Leagues.

Even Shrewsbury had the foresight to hire an experienced Non League name in Jimmy Quinn to guide them back to the Football League at the first time of asking in 2004 - before rightly jettisoning him after struggling to make the step up.

Grimsby must now be similarly pragmatic - looking to select someone well versed in coping with the unique demands of the Conference, and winning promotion from it.

Stalybridge's Jim Harvey has an impressive CV at that level, and current Luton assistant Gary Brabin led Cambridge into the top five. Martin Foyle, in charge at York last season, has also been linked with the job and would seem a decent pick.

The wrong choice, and the Mariners risk settling in too comfortably to life in the Conference. Then the only Cod Army on the march to the Football League will be that of ambitious Fleetwood.

The Boat Race

With the Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford taking place tomorrow, Turls and Lakes take the opportunity to contrast the fortunes of the two city's respective football clubs' fortunes in this season's Conference.

Using the real life milestones from the actual Race, how has the season panned out for the two Varsity clubs?


Town Buoy (5 games)

Having failed to get promoted - again - both Oxford and Cambridge were looking to bounce back into the Football League. After so many near misses, many fans refused to expect anything of their club.

The Oxen got off to an electric start as they recorded four wins and a draw from their opening five games. They hammered relegated Chester 4-0 and beat Stevenage 2-1. The only blip came in an away draw at Kettering.

It was a drab start for Cambridge however, who were torpedoed by the ship-builders of Barrow - sinking to a 2-0 defeat on the opening day.

Inconsistency was rife - with two wins, two defeats, and two draws making up their first six results of the season.



Commentary:

Oxford have exploded from the start line - causing officials to pull alongside them and see if they've attached an electric motor to their boat!

It's a perfect start from the Oxen as they look to put the disappointment of the past behind them. These boys look like they mean business and have already opened up an impressive lead over the U's!

Oh, and it's chaos! Cambridge are all over the place. If they don't start stringing wins together, nobody is going to take their campaign chances seriously this term.

They've already slipped a long way behind Oxford and this could be a very long race for Cambridge.


Mile Post (10 games)
Oxford's electric start wasn't electric after all - it just turns out to be the norm for the Oxen. Another four wins and a draw saw them accumulate 26 points from the opening 10 games of the season.

What made the feat even more impressive is that, in the last five games, they didn't even concede a goal. Beating Luton was the high point of the run, but they will have been disappointed to have dropped points to Forest Green.

Averaging two goals a game, their rivals will be fearful that Oxford could run away with this.

BLAM! Cambridge are back though! It's a stonking 7-0 win over Forest Green, and surely that will see their form ignite. Well, not really. There are just too many draws! Too many draws!



Commentary:

Oxford are still going at an impressive rate of knots here. They don't look like easing up for a second. The rowers must be on some of drug because a start this good hasn't been since Cambridge invited the East Germans to race against them.

The U's are starting to win games big, but they're still drawing too many. They have the occasional burst of speed and then the team just think: "Well, that was rather good, wasn't it Jeeves? Let's take a well earned rest."

Cambridge don't have a cat in hell's chance of catching Oxford if they keep up this pace. That's the question though, isn't it - can they keep it up?


Hammersmith Bridge (20 games)

The next ten games weren't as smooth as smooth as the first ten for Oxford. After thrashing a poor Grays side 5-0, they then had a difficult time in the Midlands - losing at Mansfield and Kidderminster.

They did manage to win six of their ten games though. The Grays victory helped their goal difference as they managed to score 16 goals in their ten-game stretch, and only conceded ten.

With 46 points on the board, Oxford fans were not too concerned by the 'dip' in form.

Cambridge, however, were still stuttering. Collapsing, perhaps, under the weight of expectation. The fans were starting to realise it wasn't going to be their season.

An inability to win games is the key problem, with far too many draws leaving them high, dry, and not very handsome.


Commentary:

Oxford look like they're slowing down a bit. I knew they wouldn't be able to keep that pace up - even if all of them ate 200 bowls of Weetabix before the race.

They're still looking good, but there've been a couple of incidents that will concern the head honchos of Oxford University.

The first came when one of the boys threw up his lunch - looked like a Stag burger - and the other came when a small bird attacked several members of the team. We haven't had confirmation yet, but we're pretty sure it was a Harrier.

Either way, Oxford will be nervously looking their shoulder to make sure Cambridge don't gain on them too much. Although they won't actually be looking over their shoulder - considering rowers don't face the way they're going.

Bit dangerous really. That's toffs for you.

Cambridge don't look they're ever going to really get going. It's like they're rowing in custard, or something equally gloopy. Gloopy is a word, yeah?

Everyone thought that the Forest Green burst of speed would do it, but they were wrong. Massively wrong. Surely their priority now isn't winning the race or even setting a good time, but simply finishing in a respectable time?


Chiswick Steps (30 games)

An identical record to their previous ten games saw Oxford continue to stumble along. Defeats to Luton and Tamworth were eased by a 4-0 thrashing of Grays, but Oxen fans are starting to panic that automatic promotion could slip from their grasp again.

Six wins from ten games is good, but is it Champions good? Only seven goals conceded indicates that Oxford are looking strong at the back, but the warning signs are still there.

Meanwhile, it's all over for Cambridge. There are tears on the faces of the fans. They're now absolutely certain it's all over. At least they're being consistent in their inconsistency,

They seem completely incapable of putting a decent run together and need to be wary of relegation.


Commentary:

Oxford are still maintaining a steady rhythm and speed, but it's a pace that is a lot slower than earlier on in the race.

Fatigue looks to be etched across the faces of the team and panic could set in soon.

It would appear that a member of the crowd threw a Lamb at the Oxford team. I don't think I'll ever understand these varsity types. It certainly knocked the wind out of their sails.

Speaking of which - why have Oxford got that sail? Seems a little unfair to me. I'll consult the rule book and get back to you.

Anyway, they still hold a commanding lead over Cambridge. Oh, and Cambridge are taking on water! They are taking on water!

Our riverside correspondent is saying they've sprung a major leak of discontent and the very bowel of the vessel is starting to move and give way. This could get messy!


Barnes Bridge (35 games)

It looks as if Oxford have bottled it again. Just when the fans needed the players to step up and turn the pressure back on leaders Stevenage, they fail to win any of their five games.

A defeat at home to Hayes & Yeading was the worst point in a terrible run as they drew with Kettering, Tamworth, and Rushden.

More importantly, Oxford drew with rivals Cambridge. The Oxen will know that their rivals will be celebrating the fact they could stop the club being promoted.

If they carry on in this form, it looks as if they will be left to battle it out in the play-offs.

It was also a boring time to be an Oxford fan as the team scored four goals and conceded five. Exciting stuff indeed.

Cambridge though are delighted. Spurred on by that draw against Oxford, they are finally starting to string together some performances!

Six wins and two draws in March have seen them sail up the table. It's too late, but it's an indication of how the players have been holding back this season. Only the threat of relegation has boosted them to a mid-table berth.


Commentary:

The Oxen have pretty much stopped rowing! These are incredible scenes! I don't remember seeing anything like this since one of the Varsity Boys jumped out of the boat because he thought it was on fire.

It's like Oxford have hit some some type of brick wall. Maybe they have hit a brick wall? In which case, the authorities need to take a look at that because it's a serious water hazard.

Fortunately for Oxford, they still hold a massive lead over their rivals, so this 'decision' shouldn't come back and haunt them too much.

I'm still hoping to see someone fire a cannon at their opponents. What's that? This isn't Pirates of the Caribbean? Oh, that's a shame.

It's Cambridge who are in the ascendancy now though. They're going hell for leather and chasing down Oxford. There just isn't enough river! There simply isn't enough river!

They're going for it though, they're really going for it! It's a flat-out sprint to the finish, but surely it's come too late. They're about half a mile down on Oxford, but at least Cambridge are giving it a go!


Verdict: Comfortable victory for Oxford