Destiny Calling

With Northampton Town struggling at the wrong end of League Two, Nobes looks at the concept of fate and destiny in football - and whether it's about to catch up with the Cobblers.

Northampton boss Gary Johnson is aiming to keep his side in League Two

Albert Einstein once remarked that: "Everything is determined, the beginning as well as the end, by forces over which we have no control."

It's what we refer to as fate, a pre-determined destiny that, no matter what we do, we cannot prevent. It is inevitable, unstoppable, and is simply a question of 'when' and not 'if.'

Commentators often refer to the "Footballing Gods" which, depending on the luck a side gets, are either smiling on a team, or not. Not even the beautiful game, it seems, can escape the inescapable.

It is, perhaps, the fear that should be permeating through every Northampton Town fan right now. The Cobblers are currently on a run of 13 games without a win, and are struggling to gain any momentum under new boss Gary Johnson.

After Barnet's surprise win at fellow strugglers Burton at the weekend, Town sit just four points above the League Two drop zone, anxiously looking over their shoulder as they get sucked into a scrap for survival.

Tonight they travel to Burton themselves in a crunch game which, if lost, will have Northampton fans of a certain age casting their minds back ago to 1994 when their side finished bottom of the entire Football League.

However, they were granted a reprieve because the ground of Conference champions Kidderminster Harriers wasn't deemed good enough to gain entry to the 92 club.

Ever since, Cobblers have established themselves a yo-yo side between the third and fourth tiers, either battling the drop in League One or making a push for promotion from League Two.

However, this term, despite upsetting Liverpool at Anfield in the League Cup, Town have endured a tough campaign. It saw playing legend Ian Sampson removed as manager last month, with the experienced Gary Johnson brought in to replace him.

The former Bristol City and Peterborough boss, who won the basement division with Yeovil in 2005, has struggled to turn around fortunes at Sixfields though. Relegation cannot be ruled out.

Enter fate to play its part in a surprisingly intriguing fight against relegation into the Non Leagues. History does not make pretty reading for the Northamptonshire outfit.

Northampton were one of five sides in the '90s who, because of other clubs going bust or Conference Champions denied promotion, despite finishing bottom of the Football League weren't relegated.

In 1991, the demise of Aldershot spared Wrexham the drop. Twelve months later and bottom placed Carlisle were thankful for Maidstone's financial woes causing them to have to exit the League instead.

Then Torquay and Exeter, like Cobblers, were saved from the drop because Stevenage and Macclesfield's respective grounds weren't considered up to Football League standards.

After a lucky escape in 1995, Exeter were relegated from League Two in 2003

Come the Noughties, and fate caught up with all four though. Exeter were the first when, in 2003, they became the first side to be relegated in 23rd after the introduction of two-up-two down between the Football and Non Leagues.

Carlisle, so often the experts at the great escape, finally fell through the trapdoor in 2004, having given themselves one too many a mountain to climb.

In 2007, it was Torquay who slumped to a miserable relegation and a year on Wrexham took the plunge in the Conference - where they remain to this day. Is fate now about to catch up with Northampton too?

It may sound slightly surreal, does fate really play a part in football? However, sport, like life, has a funny way of evening things out.

Having been denied promotion, Macclesfield, Kidderminster, and Stevenage all eventually made it to the Football League. They weren't to be denied the second time they won each won the Conference title.

Indeed, there are many superstitions surrounding the transition between the Football and Non Leagues in recent years.

Kidderminster's spell in the Football League lasted exactly five seasons, between 2000 and 2005. The side that succeeded them as Conference Champions, Rushden & Diamonds, also lasted just five years before relegation in 2006.

My own club, Boston United, also spent five years in the Football League, between 2002 and 2007. Chester City likewise with five years between 2004 and 2009.

Even forgetting the "five year curse" as it became known, there was a feeling when my club were on the brink of relegation that the Footballing Gods were exacting some karma into proceedings.

The irony wasn't lost on us that our place in the 92 was taken by the club we so controversially pipped to the Conference title, Dagenham & Redbridge. They had to take our place, it was written in the stars.

As it had been 12 months previously when Oxford United were relegated to the Conference. When they had joined the Football League in 1962 it had been because of the demise of debt-ridden Accrington Stanley.

Forty-four years later, and the phoenix club from the Lancashire town were on hand to swap places with Oxford again. You can't write scripts like that.

The first ever year of two-down from League Two saw Exeter and Shrewsbury drop down. The two had faced one another on the opening day.

The following season it was Carlisle and York who were facing up to life in the Non Leagues. They had begun the campaign against one another too.

Cobblers can at least console themselves with the fact they lined up on the opening day against Torquay rather than face the seemingly doomed Stockport.

However, when they take to the field on the final day at Morecambe, they will hope in the resort of the notorious quicksands to not experience a sinking feeling of their own. Time to prove Einstein wrong.

Stuck In A League You Can't Get Out Of

After Grimsby part company with manager Neil Woods, Nobes considers why relegated Football League clubs find it so hard to bounce back quickly and gain promotion from the Conference.

Neil Woods was unable to keep Grimsby up or get them challenging for promotion

Out with the Woods, but not yet out of them. Grimsby's decision to part ways with boss Neil Woods came as little surprise.

However, nor should their struggle to mount any kind of promotion challenge in this year's Conference come as a major shock. The top tier of Non League football is notoriously difficult to escape at the first time of asking.

Indeed, since the introduction of automatic promotion and relegation between the Football and Non Leagues 24 years ago, just four teams have managed to achieve that particular feat.

When you consider that two of those instant returns, by Lincoln and Darlington, came in the first three years, and recent statistics are made all the more damning.

It has been the same story after the introduction of a two-up two-down in 2003/4. The first two years saw Shrewsbury and Carlisle win promotion at the first time of asking. Since then though, no club has managed it.

To put that into context, in the last five seasons five sides in the Championship, three in League One, and four in League Two have all done what no relegated team into the Conference has accomplished.

True, the obvious point to make would be all three higher divisions offer at least one more promotion place, and a couple in the case of League Two.

However, when you consider that very few relegated sides even challenge for a place in the Conference play offs, the issue of how many teams get to go up doesn't really figure in the debate.

The stats show that the Conference is the most difficult division to instantly gain promotion from - as Woods and Grimsby have found to their respective cost.

It's been a bumpy ride for the Mariners, who saw the curtain come down on their century in the Football League in May after an horrific season which saw them, at one point, go 25 games without winning.

However, if they thought that life would get easier as a big fish in a small pond, the Lincolnshire outfit have been given a rude awakening. In fact, their results paint a typical picture of a Football League club trying to adjust to life in the Non Leagues.

It's not as though results have been disastrous, they have taken four points off big-spending Crawley and kept two clean sheets in the process. High flying Luton, Wrexham and Newport have also all been seen off at Blundell Park this term.

Contrast that though, with embarrassing defeats to the likes of Tamworth and Hayes & Yeading. Struggling sides Southport, Eastbourne, and Barrow have all returned from a trip to the North Sea coast with a point to show for their efforts.

For fans whose club were, ten years ago, rubbing shoulders with some of England's finest in the Championship, this season they've seen Town fail to record victories at places like Gateshead and Forest Green Rovers.

The feats of Shrewsbury and Carlisle have proved hard for others to match since

Perhaps this is a major part of the problem which holds back relegated sides though. Nowhere else can clubs enter a lower division with such a superiority complex and expectation of success.

Most Football League fans probably couldn't even tell you where Forest Green are from, let alone expect their side to return from a visit to their trip to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds without maximum spoils.

It's part of the culture shock of adapting to life in the Non Leagues. Travelling to small, ramshackle grounds with antiquated facilities and some teams whose home support is the kind taken away from home in the League.

Fans have high hopes and expectations that such sides will be easily swotted aside - and players must undoubtedly learn to cope with the pressure that they are under.

They're also aware that the longer they remain in the Conference, the harder it becomes to escape - making the stakes in that first season all the more higher - and all the more difficult to meet.

Fans must also come to terms with games against their side being treated almost as cup finals. Non League stalwarts enjoy nothing more than taking a big Football League scalp - and cutting some egos down to size in the process.

It's also not uncommon for smaller sides to travel away and park the bus, supporters' coach, as well as their entire team and fan base in front of their goal in an attempt to claim a point.

Trying to break down such defensive tactics is hard enough - and the longer it goes on the more frustrated fans with high expectations come, and soon playing at home becomes more of a hindrance than an advantage.

Grimsby have only lost twice on home soil this term, but the seven draws at Blundell Park have undoubtedly been key in why they find themselves nine points off the play offs in 9th, albeit with a couple of games in hand.

Throw in an early exit in the FA Cup and a going out of the FA Trophy after a humiliating loss at Chasetown last month, and Woods's job always appeared to be hanging by a thread.

Now under-fire chairman, John Fenty, has the opportunity to make the right appointment to guide Town back into the Football League at the earliest opportunity.

He will be well advised to take his time when deciding his next manager though, as a quick look around the Conference Premier shows a whole host of ex-Football League clubs struggling to find their way back.

Mansfield are now in their third season in the Conference, posting finishes of 12th, 9th, and they currently lie in 13th. A fourth try to escape awaits the Stags next season.

Cambridge have spent the majority of this term looking over their shoulders towards the bottom, and will reflect on successive play off final defeats in 2008 and 2009 as hugely missed opportunities.

Last year's play off winners Oxford spent four seasons in the Conference

Same with York. Last season's play off final losers to Oxford are now in their seventh season in the Conference and as well as another play off appearance in 2007, they have also ended up in the bottom half on three occasions.

Wrexham are only now making an impact in the top five in their third season in the fifth tier, and Darlington - relegated alongside the Mariners last term - are only in mid table and finding life much tougher than they did in the '80s.

I must admit, I was someone who expected the Quakers to have performed better than they have with experienced and proven Conference manager Mark Cooper at the helm.

However, it has taken him time to turn around the sinking ship in the North East which fell to relegation with barely a whimper 12 months ago.

It's true to say as well as that, like the Quakers, often relegated Football League clubs enter the Conference in a shambolic state on the pitch and in financial disarray off it.

The loss of revenue relegation can cause inevitably means a turnover in playing squad, which can often mean a slow start as players gel and adapt to a new set-up.

No matter their size and history, they are simply not in a condition to quickly adapt to the rough and tumble and rigours of the great unknown that is the Non League game - and it shows.

And even when they do, the pressure to succeed can get the better of even the most illustrious and big clubs - Oxford took four years to escape the Conference.

Even the Luton side which, barring a 30 point deduction, would have finished in mid table in League Two in 2009 could only hold down a play off place last season - where they failed to progress through the end of season lottery.

Part of their problem had been holding onto a manager, in Mick Harford, who was so woefully incapable of orchestrating a promotion push. The same could probably be said of Woods - who was fortunate to keep his job after presiding over Grimsby's easily avoidable relegation.

Were the ageing Jim Smith and Brian Little really the men to lead Oxford and Wrexham's respective first promotion pushes, too? It was no surprise that the Oxen, when appointing the canny Chris Wilder, finally did escape the Non Leagues.

Even Shrewsbury had the foresight to hire an experienced Non League name in Jimmy Quinn to guide them back to the Football League at the first time of asking in 2004 - before rightly jettisoning him after struggling to make the step up.

Grimsby must now be similarly pragmatic - looking to select someone well versed in coping with the unique demands of the Conference, and winning promotion from it.

Stalybridge's Jim Harvey has an impressive CV at that level, and current Luton assistant Gary Brabin led Cambridge into the top five. Martin Foyle, in charge at York last season, has also been linked with the job and would seem a decent pick.

The wrong choice, and the Mariners risk settling in too comfortably to life in the Conference. Then the only Cod Army on the march to the Football League will be that of ambitious Fleetwood.

Like The Fox On The Run

With Leicester City surging into promotion contention in the Championship, Nobes looks at other clubs who have come up with a late run to win promotion.

Sven-Goran Eriksson's Leicester are the form side in the Championship

Sure, Steve Claridge may have predicted as much on the BBC's The Football League Show, but so did our very own Doctor Lakes last month - Leicester City are on the march.

In fact, since Sven-Goran Eriksson took charge at the Walkers, no Championship side has done better than the Foxes with the Swede collecting 43 points from his 22 games at the helm.

Now lying 7th and just five points off the top two, City, who were propping up the rest of the division in the first few weeks under Paulo Sousa, are firmly in the promotion mix.

After his team's recent 4-1 loss in the East Midlands, Barnsley boss Mark Robins declared Leicester the best side in the division - and current form backs his judgement.

Should they indeed gain entry back to the Premier League though, they won't be the first side to win promotion off the back of a storming second half season run.

Here's my look at how some of their potential predecessors managed to do it.


Birmingham City - 2001/2

Perennial top six candidates, Birmingham parted company with long-serving boss Trevor Francis in 2001.

They then made an enemy for life in Simon Jordan in poaching Crystal Palace boss Steve Bruce to turn around their fortunes.

However, with nine games of the season remaining, it appeared promotion in his first season at the helm would be beyond former Blues player Bruce.

Not so. A combination of a late run coupled with rivals Preston, Burnley, and Coventry wobbling saw City get back into contention.

Five wins and four draws from their remaining matches secured 5th place and a shot in the play-offs.

There they saw off Millwall over two legs. Then they recovered from a goal behind to defeat Norwich on penalties in the final at the Millennium Stadium and reach the Premier League for the first time in their history.



Wrexham - 2002/3

When the Red Dragons went down to a loss at struggling Exeter at the beginning of March they were still just three points off 3rd in a congested top half of League Two.

However, they were a mammoth 21 points behind league leaders Hartlepool with only 42 points left to play for.

They dropped just eight of those points though, winning ten and drawing four, to finish the season promoted in 3rd.

They ended up three points off top of the table Rushden, a single point behind Hartlepool, and with the largest goal difference in the league.

It earned boss Denis Smith the Manager of the Year award in the basement division. In truth, had the season gone of for a couple more weeks, Wrexham would have been crowned Champions.

Remember when this man used to have the Midas touch? No, seriously.

Crystal Palace - 2003/4

God bless Iain Dowie.

You don't hear those words very often, but the remarkable run his Crystal Palace team went on in 2004 has provided great comfort to many a Championship club and boss since.

Should their side be struggling at Christmas, you can guarantee - in an appeal for more time to turn things around - that they will mention the dramatic turnaround in fortunes Dowie engineered in South London.

True, the Eagles were in the relegation zone at the start of December, but soon surged up the table until, with ten games left, they were just five points shy of the top six.

In those last ten, they won seven and drew one to end up 6th, having only moved into the play off positions for the first time in the penultimate round of fixtures.

Once in the play offs they saw off Sunderland on penalties in the semi finals before earning a sweet victory over Capital rivals West Ham in the final to end the season promoted to the top flight.



Sunderland - 2006/7

It was a run which made Roy Keane a legend on Wearside and established managerial credentials gradually destroyed over 18 months as Ipswich manager.

Still, before we discovered Keane's scouting network was reserved simply for former players, Irishmen, or Manchester United youngsters, he seemed to have the Midas touch in 2007.

The Black Cats rounded off 2006 sitting in 12th after a 1-0 loss to Preston at the Stadium Of Light. They sat six points off the play offs and a massive 16 behind leaders Birmingham.

However, in their final 20 games, Keane's charges won 16 and drew 3 to oust Birmingham from the top after game 42 and stay there to secure the league title and promotion.

The original late run and Blackpool play off win came under Simon Grayson

Blackpool - 2006/7

If Ian Holloway guiding Blackpool to play off success last term was a surprise, their promotion in 2007 was every bit as unexpected, and owed much to a good late run.

The Seasiders had only just avoided relegation the previous season and seemed to be in for a year of mid table mediocrity in League One.

A loss to Millwall in the back end of the campaign left them 10th, a full 12 points off second place.

However, Simon Grayson's men then went on a storming run of 11 wins and two draws to end up in 3rd spot, just two points off promoted Bristol City.

In truth, there was only going to be one winner in the play offs that season. Blackpool swotted aside Oldham in the semi finals before putting surprise package Yeovil to the sword 2-0 in the final.



Bristol Rovers - 2006/7

Clearly 2007 was the year of late runs, with Bristol Rovers filling that particular role in the basement division to win promotion.

When the Gas suffered a 2-1 defeat at Boston, they sat 16th in League Two with only 11 games of the season remaining.

Nobody could have envisaged what was to happen next. Rovers discovered a run of form and won eight and drew two in the run-in.

It culminated in them finishing 6th and they saw off play off veterans Lincoln over two legs to make the final.

There a 3-1 win at Wembley over Shrewsbury secured them the most unlikeliest of promotions to the third tier.

Coming to a concert hall near you soon - Phil Brown on top of the world in 2008

Hull City - 2007/8

Remember when Phil Brown wasn't known for being that eccentric orange-skinned man who enjoys berating his players on the pitch and singing badly?

I know, it seems hard to believe now, but Brown was making a name for himself in East Yorkshire - first saving Hull from relegation from the Championship and then progressing them up the table.

When they lost to table topping Bristol City at the beginning of March, the Tigers sat 11 points off 3rd place with 12 games of the campaign left to play.

Eight of those games were won, and another drawn, as Brown guided City to 3rd place, just four points behind promoted Stoke.

They went into the play offs strong favourites and, after casting aside Watford over two legs, a 1-0 win over, appropriately, Bristol City secured them top flight status for the first time in the club's history.



Notts County - 2009/10

Now, you might be spotting a pattern here - as well as rejoicing that we have the play offs in English football. Late run of form, qualify for play offs, win them.

You're not wrong. However, in the case of Notts County they didn't leave their chances to the end of season lottery.

In truth, County had been the title favourites last season with an expensively assembled squad that nobody thought they could afford - and they were right. They were also right about them winning the league though.

Notts did it the hard way, however. Their third manager of the season, Steve Cotterill, took over at Meadow Lane with them 7th in the division, trailing leaders Rochdale by a full 14 points.

In Cotterill's 18 games in charge, the Magpies won 14 and drew three of them. Coupled with Dale imploding, they secured the title by a decisive ten point margin.



While 14 games may be too few for Sven's men to close the ten point gap separating them and Championship leaders QPR, current form suggests that just points, rather than any other sides, will separate the Foxes and the Rs come May.

The Boyos Are Back In Town

Turls looks at the renaissance in Welsh football taking place not just in the Championship but also in the Conference Premier.

Wrexham are in Conference play off contention under Dean Saunders

In a land dominated by Tom Jones, rugby, leeks, and Katherine Jenkins' knockers, it's difficult for anything else to get a look in.

The Welsh national football team is rubbish, and is currently ranked as the 113th best team in the world football - behind Central African Republic and Qatar, and just ahead of Suriname. In fact, according to FIFA, Wales are the eighth worst team in Europe.

The Welsh Premier League is even worse, and probably on a par with the sixth or seventh tier of English football. I don't think most people could name many clubs who play in the WPL other than PMS and Airtours FC.

Welsh football has been seen as a bit of a shambles for quite some time, but there are a few clubs who are trying to rescue the state of football in Cymru.

The funny thing is that, while two teams are scrapping it out to leave the Football League, two others are doing their best to get into it.

Swansea City and Cardiff City are both having great seasons so far, with both teams looking likely to be in the Championship promotion shake up come the end of the season. But we all know about these two teams.

Everyone knows about what's going on in Wales' two biggest cities and I'll have a little natter about them later. What about the other two clubs?

No, I'm not referring to Merthyr Town and Colwyn Bay, I am of course talking about Wrexham and Newport County.

Both teams are in the hunt for promotion out of the Conference Premier, but each team have taken different journeys to get where they are today. One came up, and the other came down.

Wrexham are looking to get back into the Football League at the third time of asking. Their 87-year stay in the Football League was ended in the 2007/8 season, but the writing had been on the wall for them for a few seasons.

Since being relegated, Wrexham haven't really looked like rejoining the 92 club and many people, including our very own Nobes, thought that, under Dean Saunders, the North Wales club would be very lucky to find themselves in a promotion battle.

Not many thought he had the experience required to guide them out of the Non League pyramid. At the moment, Nobes is wrong.

We may only be half way through the season, but T-Wrex are sitting in the play off positions and look like they may have the strength to last the distance.

It's being achieved on the back of a mean defence. Saunders' men have only conceded 23 goals and have one of the tightest backlines in the division.

They may not score as many goals as some of the other teams in the promotion hunt, but Saunders has turned the Racecourse Ground into a fortress - with the Red Dragons losing just one of their 13 games at home.

Newport County stormed to Conference South title success last term

Over at Newport County, their success was founded by the work of another inexperienced manager.

Unlike Wrexham though, the Exiles will be forced to continue their hunt for promotion without the man who helped them cruise to the Conference South title last season.

Dean Holdsworth left for Aldershot not too long ago, and many feel that he has taken County's hopes of promotion with him. Everything he touches turns to gold at the moment, with the Shots in fine form since he took over.

Who gives a monkey's what's happening at Aldershot though, because County have been left in the lurch. Holdsworth took the Exiles to the Conference South title in style - winning the league with two months of the season to spare and averaging more than two goals per game.

It was ridiculously easy, and they carried their momentum into the Conference Premier - losing only one of their first 11 matches.

However, upon Holdsworth's departure, a few fans are starting to panic and I honestly heard one fan discussing the distinct possibility of relegation. That may be a little extreme, but you can understand the fear factor surrounding the club under new circumstances.

Many cite Holdsworth as the sole reason for the club's new found success, while others have claimed it is nonsense to suggest man is responsible for the a whole team's success.

They probably won't get promoted, and I wouldn't be surprised if they started to drift down towards the middle of the table, but Holdsworth leaves behind a strong team with a determined work ethic.

If they can keep the core of the squad together, which is always a problem when losing a manager, they have the ability to maintain a steady presence in the Conference Premier.

Welsh football is clearly on the up. Cardiff and Swansea are looking to get promoted out of the Football League, while Newport are Wrexham hope to gain entry.

Still, until Jenkins dumps that Blue Peter chap, I refuse to accept Wales into my heart.