Soccer AM/MW

Flavour Of The Month

2011-06-24T08:45:00.002+01:00

Torquay's appointment of Martin Ling as their new boss has Nobes talking about how quickly a manager's stock can change.

Martin Ling is back in League Two via League One and a spell in the Conference

In a rare expression of humility, new Torquay boss Martin Ling admitted that he still has things to prove to people in the game.

For a man entering a division he's already won promotion out of before, it was a refreshingly honest expression of his own disappointment with an 18 month spell at Conference side Cambridge.

Indeed, it could be argued that in some ways, the 44-year-old is fortunate to have been given the opportunity to succeed Paul Buckle.

His spell at Cambridge was hugely underwhelming, as he failed to hit the heights of play off final appearances his immediate predecessors Jimmy Quinn and Gary Brabin both delivered.

After the way his tenure at Leyton Orient came to a close, coupled with his struggles at the Abbey Stadium, it's entirely plausible that the Londoner could have been waiting much longer for another job.

Now though he has the chance to remind people why he was so highly thought of for the the way his Leyton Orient side played their way out of the basement division in 2006.

In the five years since, he has seen his stock rise to the point where he was being linked with a move to a bigger club in Swindon only to plummet to as low as successive P45s.

It is the nature of the managerial stock where bosses who find themselves the current flavour of the month can soon lose their appeal with a few results going the wrong way.

In many ways it's a sad indictment of the state of today's game, where those both on the inside and outside of football are so quick to rush to judgements - whether positive or negative.

From the striker destined for the top after a good goalscoring run, to the young homegrown manager being tipped as a candidate for the national team job after a couple of promotions.

Then again, on the flip side you have the boss in need of the sack after a sticky spell of form or the player who'll never amount to anything after failing to impress early on.

Such hastiness could have long term negative consequences for the game though. After all, fifty per cent of first time managers never get a second opportunity to prove their worth? How can that be right?

By the same token, countless number of clubs have rushed in to extend a manager's contract after a good spell - only to have to pay out thousands of pounds in compensation when they fire him later on. That's poor business.

Not that it's football's problem, but society's in general. This impulsive way of running clubs - sacking and hiring almost on a whim has helped develop a culture of impatience and a demand for instant results.

Of course, it's true to say that some managers do just prove to be flashes in the pan - over hyped frauds who soon find themselves exposed.

It's easy to forget that, when Aidy Boothroyd took Watford into the Premier League in 2006, the Yorkshireman was being touted for the England manager's job. He's now not even in club management.

Iain Dowie was once a rising star in management, but after enjoying a good spell at Crystal Palace he's flattered to deceive in numerous jobs - particularly at Charlton.

Can Eddie Howe expect to follow Harry Redknapp's path in today's impulsive climate?

Others prove to be managers who struggle to recreate their successful period at one club - where everything seemed to come together - in future posts.

Steve Tilson guided Southend to successive promotions to the Championship and saw his name being linked to the then vacant manager's role at Norwich.

Southend tumbled back down to the basement division though, and he moved on. Now, next season, he'll be managing in the Conference with Lincoln - after failing to keep the Imps in the Football League last season.

It's easy to forget that the likes of Gary Johnson and Paul Simpson were once seen as managers whose career were destined for the top. Both made it as far as the Championship, but have gone backwards ever since.

Johnson is now at fourth tier Northampton, via a short spell at Peterborough, having once been 90 minutes away from the Premier League with Bristol City.

Simpson, in charge of Carlisle when the Cumbrians recorded back-to-back promotions, had Preston in the top six of the Championship for the majority of the 2006/7 season.

His career has nosedived in the following years, and is now out of work after being sacked from jobs in League Two at Shrewsbury and Stockport.

It's an ominous warning to some of the current bright stars of management. Keith Hill has left the comfortable surroundings of Rochdale to test his ability at Championship Barnsley.

Paul Tisdale has remained loyal to Exeter, but his achievements on a budget as well as his brand of passing football has attracted the interest of clubs higher up the football ladder. He will surely move on soon.

Eddie Howe found himself a man in demand by an array of Championship clubs after a remarkable couple of years at Bournemouth. He's now at the helm of Burnley, who will expect a push for the Premier League in the coming season.

Howe may well deliver it, but it's easy to forget that he's only a 33-year-old with just over two years experience in his job. It seems unfair to pick on the genial Clarets boss, but let us use him as an example.

If he was to fail to bring promotion to Turf Moor, what would the verdict be? A young manager promoted too quickly? Or a young manager still learning in his job and whom had shown promise earlier in his career which could still bear fruit?

And here's the crucial point. For those who complain about the fact that the England national team is managed by a foreigner, the reality is that there is a dearth of talented homegrown managers for the job.

That's because too many never get the opportunity to manage in the big time, with their careers snuffed out after a bad turn. They climb so far only to fall back down again.

In all likelihood, it will be the Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp who will take on the job in the near future. It will come almost 30 years after he began, at what is now League Two level, with Bournemouth.

What are the chances that Howe will follow the same course though? Will he be afforded the chance to manage in the Premier League or even England? Or will he, like so many before him, never live up to all the promise and potential?

Or, more accurately, never be given the opportunity to live up to all the promise and potential? That's all any manager - whether they've previously succeeded or failed - can ask for, the chance to prove themselves all over again.

Just ask Martin Ling.

Crossing Enemy Lines

2011-06-22T14:54:00.000+01:00

With Sheffield United's appointment as manager of former Sheffield Wednesday boss Danny Wilson, Nobes looks at others who've tried to cross similar divides.

Sheffield United's appointment of Danny Wilson is a controversial choice

A manager whose teams have a reputation for playing good football and with experience of getting sides to challenge at the top end of League One.

It's a fair to suggest that it was the kind of boss Sheffield United, having been relegated from the Championship and then decided to replace Micky Adams as manager, were on the look out for.

Their eventual choice, Danny Wilson, meets the above demands, so does it matter then that formerly in his career he both played for and managed United's bitter Steel city rivals Wednesday?

For many United fans, the answer is undoubtedly yes, with an added criterion for the hunt for a new boss excluding anybody with connections to the Hillsborough club.

They and others will also point to a chequered managerial career for the Northern Irishman, from the highs of Barnsley and Hartlepool to the lows of Milton Keynes and Wednesday.

Add in his mixed fortunes at Swindon and Bristol City and it's hard to know what to think of chairman Kevin McCabe's decision to hand Wilson the task of restoring the Blades to the second tier.

In some ways, having struggled under a lifelong Blades fan in Adams, the appointment of Wilson fits the pattern of clubs choosing a polar opposite to a previously unsuccessful manager.

Even though Adams assumed control with United embroiled in a relegation dogfight though, the need for immediate results is probably even greater for his successor in August.

A poor start and those questioning his passion for, and commitment to, the Bramall Lane club will soon become even more vocal. Wilson's tenure could turn out to be a short lived and very unsuccessful experiment.

He's not the first manager to try his hand at the rivals of a former club though. Here's how some others fared when they crossed enemy lines:

Harry Redknapp - Portsmouth, Southampton

Arguably the biggest Judas act of all time came from Harry Redknapp when both of these Championship sides were still in the Premier League.

Having guided Pompey into the big time in 2003, Redknapp helped stabilise them in the top flight before resigning - unhappy at interference from club owner Milan Mandaric.

He then had the audacity to turn up at bitter Hamsphire rivals Southampton and try and engineer their escape from the drop - maybe even at his former club's expense.

Ultimately he failed to keep them up, but almost a year later returned to Fratton Park to save Portsmouth from joining Saints in the second tier.

That helped convince the doubters who hadn't wanted his return. Leading them to FA Cup glory in 2008 didn't hurt either.

Billy Davies - Derby County, Nottingham Forest

The outspoken Scot took Derby to promotion to the Premier League in 2007 in just his first year at Pride Park.

However, a slow start the next season saw the Rams rooted to the bottom, and he was relieved of his duties.

He returned to the game at County's local rivals Nottingham Forest, following in the illustrious footsteps of Brian Clough, who'd also managed both East Midlands sides.

He saved the City Ground outfit from relegation in 2009 and then took them to the play offs the following season.

They lost out to Blackpool and again were play off losers to Swansea last term before he was replaced by Steve McClaren.

Tony Pulis - Bristol Rovers, Bristol City

Pulis spent the majority of his playing career with Bristol Rovers, with two stints totalling eight years with the Gas.

His appointment as City boss in 1999 was met with hostility by many Robins fans therefore.

Results were patchy, particularly at home where City struggled to win, and fans also become unhappy with the football on display.

The Welshman lasted around six months at Ashton Gate, with fans relieved to see him leaving to take over at Portsmouth.

Peter Jackson - Bradford City, Huddersfield Town

It's hard to know exactly where the loyalties of Jackson lie in West Yorkshire.

Bradford-born, he began his career with the Bantams and captained them to the Third Division title in the '80s.

He also played for Huddersfield during his playing days though, and then took over as manager in 1997 - helping them avoid relegation before stabilising them in the top half of the second tier.

Fans were outraged at his dismissal in 1999 and he was present at the Galpharm Stadium to witness his old club relegated from the Championship in 2001.

He returned as manager with the Terriers in the basement division and took them to promotion back up to League One in 2004 before almost helping them return to the Championship via the play offs in 2006.

He was sacked again a while later and, with a spell at Lincoln in-between, is now back in management at Bradford - whom he guided to League Two safety last term.

Steve Coppell - Crystal Palace, Brighton & Hove Albion

Coppell had four spells at Crystal Palace including, in his first nine years, taking them to the final of the FA Cup in 1990 and guiding them to third in the top flight - Palace's highest ever finish.

The Selhurst Park favourite later spent a year as boss at rivals Brighton & Hove Albion between 2002 and 2003.

He was unable to help them win their fight against relegation from the Championship - including suffering a 5-0 loss at Palace along the way.

The fact Coppell received a warm welcome from Eagles fans though demonstrated how he had managed to retain their affection.

He left Brighton for Reading in 2003, with the Seagulls top of the third tier and making a strong bid to return to the Championship at the first time of asking.

Micky Adams - Leicester City, Coventry City

Adams was at Leicester when the Foxes crashed out of the top flight in 2002, but 12 months later he had overcome the club's financial issues to guide them back up at the first time of asking.

They came close to surviving the drop the next season, but ultimately a succession of late goals helped consign them to an immediate return to the second tier.

A poor start to the next campaign saw him resign from the Foxes - only to turn up a few months later at local rivals Coventry - albeit a side he'd represented as a player.

He kept the Sky Blues in the Championship and an 8th place finish the next season is still their best in a decade at that level. A sticky spell the next season saw him relieved of his duties though.

Kevin Dillon - Reading, Aldershot Town

For fans of the original Aldershot, their rivalry with Reading was a cornerstone of the club's existence.

So when former Kevin Dillon - a former assistant at the Royals during their Premier League era - was appointed as manager of phoenix club Aldershot Town they were less than impressed.

Despite leading them to the play offs in his first year, the Geordie's Berkshire connections - as well as an unhappiness over the playing style - always saw him fail to win around some Shots supporters.

It was no surprise then, when results failed to come last season, that he departed the Recreation Ground.

Gary Johnson - Peterborough United, Northampton Town

Although not one of English football's biggest rivalries, these two are old sparring partners from Non League days - as well as a grudge evolving from the fact Peterborough was formerly based in Northamptonshire.

Despite that though, and the fact that Gary Johnson spent a few months in charge at Posh, his appointment as Northampton manager earlier this year was warmly greeted.

Maybe it was because he spent so little time at London Road, or the fact he came with a reputation for playing good football and having succeeded in the lower divisions with Yeovil and Bristol City.

Either way, Johnson was regarded as a coup for the Cobblers and his time at Peterborough hasn't really counted against him.

It Takes An Einstein

2011-06-20T08:58:00.003+01:00

With Keith Hill taking the reins at Championship side Barnsley, Nobes looks at the prospects for the Yorkshire club and their new boss.

Keith Hill left Rochdale to succeed Mark Robins as manager at Oakwell

The departure of Mark Robins from his post at Barnsley has been one of the more surprising managerial changes of the close season.

After all, the 41-year-old had just guided the Reds to 17th in the Championship standings - their highest position in five years since their return to the second tier.

It was a campaign bereft of the usual battle against the drop, with the Reds ending up 14 points clear of the relegation zone and also collecting their most points at that level since 2000.

They also remained undefeated in derby games against local rivals Sheffield United and Doncaster to finish as the highest placed club in South Yorkshire.

The sale to Wolves of winger Adam Hammill, a played signed by Simon Davey but from whom Robins managed to coax consistent performances as well as goals, helped bring the club half a million pounds.

However, a disagreement between the manager and owner Patrick Cryne - believed to centre around the playing budget - saw Robins put on gardening leave and given a year's notice of his contract. Eventually the manager resigned.

In Robins' defence, he can look back on pride at his 20-month spell at Oakwell and could perhaps feel aggrieved he wasn't given greater resources to further improve the team.

Critics will point to how the football on display could often lack the zest demanded from the terraces - illustrated by declining attendances - but he oversaw a definite progression from the days of battling the drop under Davey.

It's hard not to see how his career prospects wouldn't have been enhanced by his time at the club, and Robins is sure to secure another Football League position in the future.

For the club he leaves behind though, the future direction remains unclear - even with a protracted and sometimes messy search for Robins' successor having come to a close with the appointment of Keith Hill.

The 42-year-old Lancastrian has earned his chance in the Championship after orchestrating a remarkable turnaround in fortunes on the other side of the Pennines at Rochdale.

So often the butt of jokes for their prolonged stay in England's basement division, Dale were fighting the drop to the Conference when Hill took over as manager in 2006.

The transformation in results, as well as playing style, was dramatic. Along with assistant Dave Flitcroft, he presided over a surge up the League Two table brought about with a vibrant and attractive attacking style.

That progress was continued with two appearances in the play offs before, finally, Rochdale ended their long wait for promotion in 2009. Hill had written his name into the club's history books.

Not content at that, Dale defied a summer of upheaval in the transfer market and set about taking League One by surprise. They ended up finishing 9th, just three points off the play offs and equalling the club's best ever League placing.

Hill had once again marked himself out as a rising managerial star, qualities that have attracted Barnsley enough to give him his chance in the Championship - in the hope he can deliver something similar at Oakwell.

No-nonsense and straight-talking, there's something traditionally northern about Hill. During his side's chase against Notts County for the League Two title in 2009, he blasted that, if Dale couldn't catch up with their big-spending rivals, the taxman one day would.

That honesty and determination will go down well with Reds fans as he sets about proving that, while following in Steve Parkin's footsteps in swapping Dale for Barnsley, he won't endure the same fate of relegation that Parkin did in 2002.

Mark Robins made steady progress during his two seasons at Barnsley

His approach to playing the game the right way and to attack should certainly provide comfort to fans who famously serenaded Danny Wilson's promotion team of 1997 with the praise that it was "just like watching Brazil."

The board too, in their search for Robins' successor, also recognised that under the former Rotherham boss the football had become "staid" and "defensive." They're unlikely to see something similar under Hill's tutelage.

The hope is that he will deliver both the excitement and results which the Oakwell hierarchy are in search for, in their attempt to escape, what they themselves, have branded a "rut."

They have simply concluded that something different is required: a different approach, a different kind of manager, a different kind of product.

Indeed, in a refreshingly candid communication with fans via Barnsley's official website, the club even drew on the inspiration of Albert Einstein, citing his definition of insanity - doing the same thing over again and expecting a different outcome - as being part of their thinking.

While it would therefore be wrong to suggest they're insane, the appointment of Hill still represents something of a risk - as admittedly does the hiring of any new manager.

He is an unknown quantity in the Championship and will have to adjust to a new club and new playing level at the same time. Delivering attractive football and Championship results also proved the undoing of Andy Ritchie at Oakwell in 2006.

Hill has experience of adjusting to a new level with Rochdale 12 months ago, however. His subtle change in tactics to a 4-1-4-1 formation that brought the best out of captain and midfield general Gary Jones also demonstrates a shrewd mind.

His capturing of young defender Craig Dawson from Non League Radcliffe Borough is also typical of his promoting of youth and eye for a bargain. Dawson is now in the Premier League at West Bromwich Albion.

The nurturing of talent like Will Buckley, Glenn Murray, and David Perkins during his time at Dale also helped bring in valuable money to the Spotland coffers. They are qualities that should come in use as he works with modest second tier resources in South Yorkshire.

It's hardly surprising either that two of his first signings have been to capture Chesterfield's leading scorer from League Two last year in Craig Davies along with a reunion with Perkins from Colchester.

It's the kind of financial prudence and emphasis on youth that, for a club looking to cut debt and manage its budget more effectively - particularly with a drop in TV revenue from next season - badly needs.

Naturally, such talk begins to raise doubts over the club's standing in an increasingly competitive second tier.

The example of Preston - another club who looked to cut costs with the gamble of a young manager in Darren Ferguson - should serve as a warning. North End will be lining up in League One from August thanks to Ferguson's mismanagement.

No club has spent more years at Championship level than Barnsley, but history is no guarantee of a club's future standing on the English football ladder.

There will be fans too, who rightly point to the success of Burnley and Blackpool - two sides of comparative stature to the Reds - in reaching the Premier League in recent years and ask "if them, why not us?"

In the case of those two Lancashire sides, both defied the financial odds to secure elevation via the play offs - largely thanks to exceptional management from Owen Coyle and Ian Holloway respectively.

Barnsley will be hoping their bold decision to break free of their malaise under Hill has similarly positive consequences. Not that you'd need Einstein to realise that.

A Beautiful New Day

2011-06-18T08:53:00.003+01:00

After Alex McLeish leaves relegated Birmingham and crosses the second city to Aston Villa, Nobes suggests that his old club could be better off without him.

Alex McLeish brought success but no style during his time at St. Andrew's

Life is never dull supporting Birmingham City. True, the Blues have been shorn of silverware in their 136 year history and are seemingly destined to play second fiddle in the second city to rivals Aston Villa.

However, over the past decade the St. Andrew's faithful have seen their side promoted to the Premier League on three occasions and relegated from it the same number of times.

Add in last season's League Cup triumph over Arsenal at Wembley - the club's first major trophy since 1963 - and City fans have had plenty to keep them occupied.

While supporting them over the past ten years has been exciting though, could the same be said for watching them? It's an important distinction, as well as a major one.

I have no shame in admitting I was pleased to see the Blues drop down from the Premier League on a frantic final day's play. That wasn't because I have anything personal against them as a football club, I don't.

Rather, it was because I didn't enjoy watching them - or their brand of football being showcased on England's highest stage. The Premier League, as far as I'm concerned, is a more attractive place without Alex McLeish's Birmingham.

Only they're not Alex McLeish's Birmingham anymore, with the Scot's controversial decision to quit the Blues and move to bitter neighbours Aston Villa causing consternation in the boardroom at St. Andrew's.

Should it though? McLeish had overseen two relegations from the top flight during his spell at St. Andrew's - usually one is enough to see a manager given the boot.

While there may have been mitigating circumstances in both cases - taking over midway through their 2007/8 relegation year and injuries blighting his squad last term - he must still accept his share of the blame.

The board had made it patently clear, too, that the Scot was expected to lead them back up to the Premier League at the first time of asking - a feat to be achieved while possibly losing some of his top players.

Fans of the former Rangers manager would point to how he did just that in 2009, as Birmingham returned to the Premier League after just a season away.

That promotion two years ago though was achieved largely via a gruesome grinding out of results. McLeish's men managed just 54 goals in their 46 matches, despite possessing an arsenal of attacking options the envy of the division.

Instead, they relied on defensive solidity and a doggedness to ensure their exodus from the big time was a short one. Ultimately, the end justified the means, but success had been achieved with no style.

Their approach to life in the top flight was a similar story. Strength at the back helping them to a comfortable 9th placed finish on their return before last season's slump to the drop.

It was no surprise that, when the defence began to wobble, Birmingham's reliance on eking out narrow victories fell apart. It was the strategy designed by the manager.

While members of the press - who the affable McLeish enjoys a healthy relationship with - continued to laud him, it disguised the reality that Birmingham were a desperate side to watch.

Too often their approach to games was negative and spoiling. They relied far too heavily on goals from set pieces and were badly lacking in any kind of creativity and flair.

Birmingham were shock victors over Arsenal in February's League Cup final

Senior journalists gushing over McLeish's engineering of a turnaround in their League Cup semi final win over West Ham was embarrassing in the extreme.

The Scot was hailed as some kind of tactical genius for his decision to bring on giant Serbian striker Nikola Zigic so his side could pump the ball long to him. It was football from the dark ages.

Their victory at Wembley over a lackadaisical Arsenal was, for all of their endeavour, highly fortuitous. A win for the neutral, perhaps, but not for football. McLeish, as so often in his tenure north of the border at Rangers, got lucky.

There could be no guarantee, therefore, that he would have taken Birmingham straight back up again in the coming season.

Indeed, it may well transpire that the Blues board, currently chasing the £5.4 million in compensation they feel they're due, could be receiving money they would have had to hand out for firing the Scot at some point in the future.

It is no longer acceptable either for those critics who would argue that the 52-year-old's approach was dictated by the resources he had available to him.

Note the contrast to the refreshing and positive way Blackpool succumbed to the drop last May to the tale of Birmingham's grim slide toward their own day of reckoning.

The choice to play dull, to be negative, was just that - a choice. The manager's choice. Pundits bemoaned Blackpool's demise. Nobody shed a tear for the Blues.

While they will never match City for their history or fan base, it is only positive for English football that Roberto Martinez's Wigan survived to keep entertaining fans with their stylish approach to the beautiful game.

However, McLeish's defection to Villa Park now provides City with an opportunity to try something different and embrace the direction football in this country is now going in.

The success of last season's promoted trio from the Championship, three sides in QPR, Norwich, and Swansea who played good football - should serve to inspire them.

The appointment of the next manager at St. Andrew's must signal the start of a culture change from the stale football played under both McLeish and his predecessor, Steve Bruce.

It's the reason names like Portsmouth's Steve Cotterill would be a terrible retaining of the status quo in the second city. Now is the time for a courageous and bold decision made for the long term.

After all, a side can grind and bore their way to the top flight - just as McLeish's crop of 2009 did - but where's the fun in that? Is it really a price worth paying just to be part of the Premier League elite?

In the coming season, Blues will come face-to-face with clubs who have taken such an approach and given progressive, young talent an opportunity to shine.

From Keith Hill at Barnsley, being given the chance to impress at a higher level after rejuvenating Rochdale, to Gus Poyet's upwardly mobile and easy-on-the-eye Brighton.

The precocious Eddie Howe is settling into life at Burnley and Southampton are once again on the rise with Nigel Adkins at the helm. The talent is out there. The chance to change their ways has presented itself.

McLeish's departure could actually be a blessing in disguise. It's up to Birmingham to make it so.

Everything Must Go

2011-06-17T18:55:00.000+01:00

Nobes on West Ham United's attempts to gain an instant return to the Premier League under the controversial guidance of Sam Allardyce.

Sam Allardyce advocates an "Up and at 'em" approach to the game

The theory goes that a side relegated from the Premier League is likely to lose many of its top players. Some leave of their own accord - wishing to remain in the top flight and unwilling to slum it in the Championship.

Others are let go, high wage earners who present a luxury no longer affordable when you've lost your seat on English's football gravy train.

For relegated West Ham it's not a new scenario. Back in 2003, the last time they found themselves back in the Championship, they lost the services of many of the young players that had promised a bright future in London's East End.

The likes of Joe Cole, Jermain Defoe, and Glen Johnson all upped sticks from Upton Park. Michael Carrick hung around for another year, but wasn't willing to spend two seasons outside the elite.

This time, it's names such as Scott Parker, Robert Green, and Matthew Upson - all England internationals - who could well flee United's sinking ship. The great sale is on. Everything must go.

By appointing Sam Allardyce as the club's new manager though, the question has to be asked whether West Ham have sold something even more valuable than their star players - their principles.

The club of Billy Bonds, John Lyall, and Ron Greenwood have opted for a man whose approach to playing football has been described most kindly as "ugly."

This is the Academy of Football, the team for whom the likes of Bobby Moore, Trevor Brooking, Martin Peters, and Geoff Hurst donned the famous claret and blue shirt.

A club with a proud history, fanatical support, and a philosophy of playing the game the right way - win, lose, or draw.

A club which, upon relegation in 2003, turned to Alan Pardew, a young manager with the same belief in playing good football, to restore their top flight status. He did so at the second time of asking as play off winners in 2005.

Why then have they seemingly thrown away years of commitment to the beautiful game, of an approach admired and respected among English fans, and teamed with up Allardyce?

On the face of it, owners David Gold and David Sullivan have turned to a man with vast experience and Premier League pedigree.

At Bolton he cemented the Lancashire side in the top flight, turning them into a top half team who regularly upset richer and more illustrious opponents.

He went into Blackburn with the club struggling against relegation and saved them from the drop before stabilising them in mid table. His sacking in December last year by Rovers's new Indian owners appeared harsh.

The 56-year-old can also point to promotion experience out of the Championship with Bolton in 2001. However, that was the last time he managed outside the Premier League.

England's second tier is a much-changed division since then and, while Allardyce's more agricultural methods may have been the norm a decade ago, successful sides in the Championship of late have tended to be more cultured.

Even an old warhorse in Neil Warnock, who lead QPR to the Championship title last season, recognised that changing his ways to build a side not only high in steel but also in style was the way forward.

It's been the trend in recent years for footballing sides to be able to thrive in the Championship, which makes West Ham's decision to appoint a manager with a reputation for the long ball game all the more perplexing.

Alan Pardew took West Ham back into the Premier League in 2005

Their experience under Pardew alone should have taught them that they could play their way out of the division. Swansea's success last season, too, was evidence enough of how you can play the game the right way and still thrive.

Allardyce insists he's aware of West Ham's traditions and has promised to play a "passing game" at home while being "tough and utterly resilient" on the road.

It's the kind of positive spin Alastair Campbell - a fan of the other half of Championship's claret and blue contingent in Burnley - would be proud of.

Fans of Allardyce - once considered a contender for the England manager's job - point to his use of sports science and the latest technology as reasons against his "dinosaur" tag.

The truth remains though that his football at heart is direct, physical, and relies heavily on brute force and an expertise from dead ball situations.

It is the road that the club's owners have chosen to go down - as they proudly seek to maintain their record of recovering immediately from relegation to the Championship, as they twice managed while owners at Birmingham.

The fact that in both instances they decided to retain the services of the manager who'd failed to keep them in the Premier League somewhat makes a mockery of their suggestion that they know what it takes to bounce back instantly.

In hiring Allardyce though, Messrs Gold and Sullivan have made a pact of almost Faustian quality. Just as Allardyce's football targets the quickest route to goal, the swiftest return to the riches of the Premier League is West Ham's sole intention.

It begs the question that if Premier League status at all costs was their philosophy, why Allardyce wasn't appointed in January when rumours abounded about the future of then United boss Avram Grant?

The beleaguered Israeli was supposed to have been replaced by Martin O'Neill, only for the former Celtic boss to decide against returning to the game at Upton Park. Grant remained in post until his inevitable firing after relegation was confirmed.

Had they hired Allardyce though, his brand of football so effective in a relegation scrap may have been enough to prevent Championship football for 2011/12.

Now West Ham must hope it will be the catalyst for promotion. Whether the kind of tactics employed to rough-up the Premier League big boys will prove as effective in the Championship is another matter though.

The East Londoners will find themselves one of the most attractive scalps for second tier opponents relishing taking them on. It will pose Allardyce with an unfamiliar challenge when sides come to Upton Park to park the proverbial bus.

As Chris Coleman discovered, there's a distinct difference between survival football and promotion football. While he was able to sustain top flight at Fulham he struggled to mount any kind of promotion charge at Coventry.

Keeping a side in the Premier League is an altogether different task to getting a side into it in the first place. Stating he'll try to play the 'West Ham way' has also seen Allardyce put himself in a corner all of his own making.

Repeating his unsuccessful short reign at Newcastle - another club with passionate and demanding followers - where he never managed to win round a sceptical Geordie audience will undoubtedly be a fear.

He must hope that the club that will soon call the Olympic Stadium their home will remember the season is a marathon and not a sprint.

Not that frequent chopping and changing managers is something the Hammers have participated in over the years. Allardyce must rely on that being one thing which will remain the 'West Ham way.'

Come In Out Of The Rain

2011-06-14T08:52:00.000+01:00

Nobes looks at the rehabilitation process of former England coach Steve McClaren after he replaces Billy Davies at Nottingham Forest.

Steve McClaren endured a difficult spell as coach of the England national team

It's a night that is forever etched into the memory of English football fans: the sight of Steve McClaren shielding himself under an umbrella on the Wembley touchline.

"The Wally with the Brolly," was the barb aimed in his direction, after a 3-2 defeat to Croatia saw him fail in his attempts to steer England to Euro 2008.

While the umbrella may have protected the 50-year-old from the elements on a miserable - in every sense of the word - night at Wembley in November 2007, it couldn't stop the barrage of abuse that came McClaren's way.

Nor could it halt the inevitable sequence of events. The former Manchester United assistant was swiftly dismissed by the Football Association for failing to take the national team to a tournament for the first time in fourteen years.

Now, he is in danger of joining the likes of Burgess Meredith and Patrick MacNee on a short list of people most readily identified for carrying around an umbrella with them.

However, his appointment as Billy Davies's successor at Nottingham Forest provides him with the chance to continue rebuilding a reputation which took a severe knocking and get a once promising managerial career back on track.

His arrival in the East Midlands comes via a spell on the continent enjoying mixed fortunes as he embraced the European game.

First in Holland, he took unfashionable FC Twente to the first Eredivisie crown in their history. In doing so, he followed in the footstep of Sir Bobby Robson, who left England to enjoy similar success at PSV Eindhoven in 1992.

Last season he spent a few months at German side Wolfsburg, but found himself unable to replicate success in the Low Countries in Lower Saxony.

Now, with parts of the country officially declared as being in drought last week, it's tempting to suggest that he couldn't have chosen a better time to return to the English game. He's unlikely to need any shelter in the current climate.

In many ways, the move to Forest, when a return to Twente was also a possibility, is a reflection of a man with a point to prove - and who's confident he can do just that. Returning to Holland would have been the easy choice.

He should also be applauded for choosing to return to the English game outside the Premier League. Albeit, the expectation on him will be to swiftly take Forest back into the top flight.

This from a man roundly chastised by the press during his time as England manager. From unconvincing displays and bizarre tactical choices to his habit, at times, of acting more like the players' friend than their boss.

His almost ubiquitous smile - when most of the country were feeling like doing anything but smiling - also provided further ammunition for media hounds just waiting for the Yorkshireman to fail.

However, he didn't become a bad manager overnight. History forgets that the England side that took to the field against Croatia were missing many of its key men.

Had they managed even a draw then the national side would have gone to Austria and Switzerland the next summer.

McClaren would probably have remained in his post and his reputation would be no worse than any other England manager who has failed to win a tournament.

As it was though, there was something almost poetic about the way the curtain came down on his reign during an evening of mishaps in the rain at Wembley. Not so much God's tears, as England's.

The nation held its breath - as attention turned to how rivals Russia were doing and the grim reality dawned that England were now relying on a favour from minnows Andorra. Unsurprisingly, none was forthcoming.

McClaren began rebuilding his reputation by taking FC Twente to the Dutch title

He will receive no favours at the City Ground either. While managing Forest will attract nowhere near the same media scrutiny he received as England coach, he is under great pressure to deliver promotion.

Not since 1999 have Forest played in the top flight. It's been a spell which has seen the two-times European Cup winners even spend three years in League One.

His predecessor Billy Davies, a volatile figure at the best of times, seemed to be navigating the club back on a course towards the Premier League, with back-to-back play off finishes.

However, defeat in successive years to Blackpool and Swansea at the semi final stage - allied to a fractious relationship with chairman Nigel Doughty and the board at the City Ground - saw Davies relieved of his duties.

The Scot - who has never failed during a full season to guide a side into the Championship's top six - is a formidable act for McClaren to follow. At the very least, Forest will be expected to finish in the top six again.

Not that they're assured to. He is entering arguably one of the most competitive divisions in European football - without any prior experience of managing at that level.

A sound time in charge at Middlesbrough in the top flight - including taking them to League Cup glory in 2005 followed by the UEFA Cup final in 2006 - should offer Forest fans cause for optimism.

None of it will be any guarantee of success on his return to the English domestic game though. True, Kevin Keegan returned from his time with England to lead Manchester City to the second tier title in 2002.

However, Graham Taylor - the last manager before McClaren to not take the national side to a major tournament - failed to guide Woverhampton Wanderers to top fight promotion on his return to management in 1994.

As Taylor found on his arrival at Molineux, McClaren's first mission may well be to simply win around some Forest fans who will hold his failings as England manager against him.

If rumours are to be believed both Blackburn and, most recently, Aston Villa decided against appointing McClaren fearing a backlash from supporters.

Emotions run deep when it comes to the national team - and arguably even deeper for club sides. It's the nightmare at Wembley, not Middlesbrough's success at the Millennium Stadium, which will be freshest in some Forest's fans minds.

Hitting the ground running will be essential in convincing supporters that he is a better manager for his time abroad, and than his time with England showed.

In doing so, he will seek to restore Forest to the level they feel they belong at, as well as his reputation. His task now is to do what Davies couldn't - and take Forest the extra step.

To do so he'll have to hold off the challenge of the likes of former club Boro, as well as resurgent forces in the guise of fellow former top flight sides Leeds, Ipswich, and Southampton.

The relegated trio of Blackpool, Birmingham, and West Ham United will all hope to be in contention for an instant Premier League return too.

There's sure to be added spice as well as he competes against local rivals Leicester, under the management of his former England mentor Sven-Goran Eriksson, one of the favourites for promotion.

If he succeeds in his recovery mission, then this corner of the East Midlands, if not the rest of the country, will be ready to forgive him for his England sins.

Who knows, if the sun shines for him at the City Ground, he may even be tempted to bring out the parasol.

Editorial 16

2011-06-13T14:00:00.000+01:00

Hello Soccer AM/MW followers.

You may have noticed things have gone slightly quiet here at Soccer AM/MW over the past few weeks.

That can partly be attributed to the fact that the season is over, as well as a technological meltdown affecting yours truly. A lesson, if ever there needed to be one, in not keeping an open bottle of Irn Bru next to a computer.

We also made the unconventional step of refusing to cover the play offs - simply because all three of our clubs have suffered so much pain and misery in them that we don't want to anymore.

We're also far too petty minded to want to have congratulate Deadly Darren on his promotion.

Well, things will unsurprisingly be quieter over the summer as we take some well earned weeks of vacation. We might rear our head every so often, so stay tuned to that place where all the super injunctions are revealed for any updates.

And of course, we'll be back for the new season as well. Albeit looking slightly different.

It can't have escaped your notice that the coalition government is in the process of making some rather deep cuts in public services, and we too have felt their axe.

I myself made the trip down to London to discuss cutbacks at Soccer AM/MW towers. Initially I thought I was off to pay a visit to Dave at Number 10 for cucumber sandwiches and tea.

Instead they directed me to the Secretary for Culture, Media, Olympics, and Sport - a man called Jeremy Hunt. Apparently he's referred to by another name by BBC employees.

Still, it was a relief because I don't like cucumber sandwiches or tea, and Jezza's more of a coffee and digestive biscuit guy. Cheryl Cole would have been proud.

After some coffee and chewing the fat - sounds like a disgusting combination, I know - I managed to spare Lakes the chop. Unfortunately though, the likes of the Big Match have not been spared, so we'll be looking slightly more svelte in the future.

We haven't ruled out the possibility of hiring some lackey for nowt and making him work on the site though under the disguise of The Big Society. Everyone else is doing it, so why not us I thought?

Have a good summer.

Nobes

Managerial Sackings Review

2011-06-10T08:38:00.003+01:00

In total, 38 managers left clubs during the past season - 25 of them were sackings.

How many of those managerial changes actually worked though? Or were they just a case of trigger happy chairmen pushing the panic button to no effect?

Nobes analyses every managerial sacking in the Football League this season.

Sheffield United - August 14

OUT: Kevin Blackwell
IN: Gary Speed

United underperformed in missing out on the top six last season and an opening day draw followed by a 3-0 home loss to QPR saw the axe fall on Blackwell.

He was replaced by coach Gary Speed who hardly improved matters before leaving to manage Wales. Micky Adams came in but by then the Blades were struggling badly and ended up relegated to League One.

Verdict: Nonsensical. Giving Blackwell the summer and then sacking him after two games was a farce. He should have gone during the close season or been given more time.

Southampton - August 30

OUT: Alan Pardew
IN: Nigel Adkins

Verdict: A harsh sacking, as Pardew had done a good job during his time at St. Mary's.

They redeemed themselves by appointing a proven boss in Adkins though and he duly delivered the expected promotion back to the Championship. Ruthlessly effective.

Leicester City - October 1

OUT: Paulo Sousa
IN: Sven-Goran Eriksson

Verdict: Sousa had been poached from Swansea but a poor start where his brand of football took time to have an impact, coupled with new owners at the club, saw him dismissed.

The experienced Eriksson oversaw an improvement and Leicester have the big name boss to match their lofty ambitions of establishing themselves back in the top flight.

Hereford United - October 4

OUT: Simon Davey
IN: Jamie Pitman

Verdict: Davey paid the price for walking out on Darlington and making the move back up to League Two at Edgar Street.

The Bulls struggled badly for goals and points and he was jettisoned with them propping up the rest. Physio Jamie Pitman proved his healing powers to gradually steer United away from the bottom two.

Notts County - October 24

OUT: Craig Short
IN: Paul Ince

Verdict: Another season of ridiculous managerial turnover at County began with the sacking of summer appointment Craig Short after a steady start to their third tier campaign.

Notts expected more and former Blackburn boss Paul Ince was given the task of delivering it. A good FA Cup run apart, he didn't.

Bristol Rovers - December 15

OUT: Paul Trollope
IN: Dave Penney

Verdict: Paul Trollope failed to arrest the slide in form at the Memorial Stadium which had begun the previous campaign.

He was given the boot and Dave Penney was charged with hauling the sinking Gas out of the bottom four in League One.

Preston North End - December 29

OUT: Darren Ferguson
IN: Phil Brown

Verdict: A risky appointment the previous season cost Preston, as Darren Ferguson's lightweights found their porous backline rooting them to the foot of the Championship.

He was replaced by Phil Brown who took time to rally his troops before a late surge gave North End hope. They fell short in the end, and were left cursing making their change too late.

Burnley - December 29

OUT: Brian Laws
IN: Eddie Howe

Verdict: Laws had been a shock selection as Burnley boss and, after failing to keep them in the Premier League, he never convinced as he tried to get them back up.

In came highly rated Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe who helped engineer an immediate upturn followed by a sticky spell. In the end, they fell short of their goal of a top six spot. Hopes are high for Howe next year though.

Crystal Palace - January 1

OUT: George Burley
IN: Dougie Freedman

Verdict: Palace only escaped the drop on the final day of the previous season, and once again found themselves embroiled in a relegation fight under the experienced George Burley.

Eagles legend Dougie Freedman was drafted in and, aided by excellent home form, managed to navigate Palace to Championship safety for another year.

Barnet - January 1

OUT: Mark Stimson
IN: Paul Fairclough

Verdict: Mark Stimson always appeared a gamble to take charge at Underhill and a poor away record and ineffective team saw the Bees struggling in the relegation zone.

Fairclough assumed control, followed by Martin Allen and finally Guiliano Grazioli as Barnet saved their Football League status on the very last day of the campaign.

Walsall - January 4

OUT: Chris Hutchings
IN: Dean Smith

Verdict: The Saddlers appeared dead and buried and destined for League One when Hutchings departed. It all seemed too little too late.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man though. Smith orchestrated an incredible turnaround in results. The Saddlers, on the bottom for so long, ended up a point above the relegation zone after a great escape.

Stockport County - January 4

OUT: Paul Simpson
IN: Peter Ward

Verdict: Financially troubled County were always expected to struggle in League Two, so the decision to sack Paul Simpson with the club outside the drop zone appeared harsh.

Ward took over as caretaker, a role he held for four months before Ray Mathias replaced him. By then, the Hatters were rock bottom and relegation to the Conference just waiting to be confirmed. It was.

Charlton Athletic - January 4

OUT: Phil Parkinson
IN: Chris Powell

Verdict: Athletic were play off losers the previous season, and were in contention for the top six again when Parkinson found himself dismissed by the club's new owners.

Charlton hero Powell was his replacement but, after a bright start, he oversaw a second half of the season slump which saw end up in the bottom half.

The appointment may have appeased fans, but Powell has struggled to prove that taking the gamble on him is going to pay off.

Ipswich Town - January 7

OUT: Roy Keane
IN: Paul Jewell

Verdict: Eighteen months of underachievement under Roy Keane eventually saw the fiery Irishman given his P45 from Portman Road.

Seasoned Championship campaigner Jewell succeeded him and fortunes improved on the pitch. Expectations for a promotion challenge next season under him seem well grounded.

Aldershot Town - January 10

OUT: Kevin Dillon
IN: Dean Holdsworth

Verdict: Despite leading the Hampshire outfit into the League Two play offs the previous term, Dillon never won around fans at the Recreation Ground.

With the Shots sliding down the table he was issued with his marching orders and Newport's Holdsworth brought in to replace him. He helped stabilise things and lead the club to a comfortable mid table finish.

Peterborough United - January 11

OUT: Gary Johnson
IN: Darren Ferguson

Verdict: Posh were League One's entertainers, with goals flowing at both ends under Johnson. However, with hopes high of an immediate return to the Championship, he parted company with the club after a poor run.

Ferguson returned to London Road - where he'd made his name - gaining more wins and clean sheets and taking them to promotion in the play off final.

Sheffield Wednesday - February 3

OUT: Alan Irvine
IN: Gary Megson

Verdict: A bright start gave way to a struggle and, after the takeover at Hillsborough by Milan Mandaric, Alan Irvine was soon on his way with a top six challenge fading.

However, his replacement, Owls legend Megson, failed to bring fresh impetus and Wednesday ended up in the bottom half. The pressure's on for much better next season.

Brentford - February 3

OUT: Andy Scott
IN: Nicky Forster

Verdict: An up and down season saw Scott's successful spell in charge at Griffin Park brought to an end amid fan disenchantment with the football on display.

Forster took over as caretaker, leading the Bees to a top half finish and an appearance at Wembley where they lost to Carlisle in the JPT Final.

Northampton Town - March 2

OUT: Ian Sampson
IN: Gary Johnson

Verdict: Sampson oversaw a famous night for the Cobblers with a win over Liverpool at Anfield in the League Cup.

They struggled badly for results in League Two though and, with Town slipping down the standings, Sampson was relieved of his duties to avoid them dropping down.

In came Johnson, who failed to improve matters. Wins in their final two matches eventually saw them safe though.

Bristol Rovers - March 7

OUT: Dave Penney
IN: Stuart Campbell

Verdict: Penney was in charge for just 13 games at Rovers, a run which saw them sink even deeper into the relegation mire after Paul Trollope's departure.

He was swiftly removed, and Campbell took on a player-manager role - he was unable to prevent relegation to League Two though.

Coventry City - March 14

OUT: Aidy Boothroyd
IN: Andy Thorn

Verdict: One of English football's most trigger happy teams lived up to their reputation with one win in 16 leading to Boothroyd departing after less than a year in charge.

Thorn took over as caretaker and City, who had been top six challengers before Christmas, eventually saw themselves safe in lower mid table - enough to earn him the full time gig.

Scunthorpe United - March 16

OUT: Ian Baraclough
IN: Alan Knill

Verdict: The Iron had put faith in coach Baraclough to replace Nigel Adkins, but the rookie's ugly brand of football combined with a relegation struggle led to his sacking.

Knill joined his former club from Bury, but came in much too late to help keep Scunny in the Championship.

Port Vale - March 21

OUT: Jim Gannon
IN: Mark Grew

Verdict: Gannon had been appointed following Micky Adams' decision to leave Vale for Sheffield United. However, he never won around directors, staff, players, or fans.

As their top seven challenge flagged, he was given the boot and Grew promoted to caretaker. The Valiants failed to make the play offs though, and Adams has now returned.

Rotherham United - March 22

OUT: Ronnie Moore
IN: Andy Scott

Verdict: Millers legend Moore had been expected to deliver promotion to the South Yorkshire outfit. A sticky spell of form saw him surprisingly dismissed though.

Scott eventually suceeded him, but by then United were already looking unlikely to claim a play off spot. He will be under pressure to deliver the goods in 2011/12.

Notts County - April 3

OUT: Paul Ince
IN: Martin Allen

Verdict: County's FA Cup run had seen them slide down the table due to inactivity.

When they looked unlikely to make their games in hand on others count though, Ince was fired.

Allen was poached from Barnet and inspired Notts to survival with a late run of results.

The History Book: Review

2011-06-08T08:58:00.000+01:00

Nobes looks back on how successful his experiment of using historical trends to predict the season was.

Could QPR's success in the Championship have been forecast?

Before a ball had been kicked this season, I decided to test a theory that history could be used to help predict the season's events.

The idea was that, instead of using current form, that actually identifying trends and patterns in the league could give a clue as to the fate which may befall some teams during the campaign.

How successful was this idea though?

One of the trends I identified was that the previous five play off winners all had finished in the bottom half the year before winning the end of season lottery.

Now, that hasn't been the case this year, with Swansea finishing just outside the play offs in 7th last term. However, I also made the comment that:

"All of the teams were also linked in the fact they had a manager taking charge of his first full season in charge of them."

This proved correct, with Brendan Rodgers in his first/full season in charge at the Liberty Stadium.

When you add in to the mix that Champions Queens Park Rangers finished in the bottom half last season and were in the first full season of Neil Warnock's management, then some degree of the trend continues.

We'll gloss over the fact that I fancied Crystal Palace could be that side, and move on to my other trend. Namely that a side who finished in the top half the previous season would be relegated.

"Millwall, Luton, and Colchester all finished 10th before relegation the next term. Charlton went from 11th to 24th in the space of a year, and Sheffield Wednesday were relegated last season after ending the 2008/9 campaign in 12th."

The curse struck yet again - Sheffield United suffering a nightmare campaign to plummet from 8th in 2010 to 23rd and relegated in 2011.

My own tip had been Doncaster to go from 12th to relegated. In the end, Donny finished 21st, just a place above the bottom three. Their South Yorkshire rivals still lived up to their end of the bargain though.

I also made the following forecast:

"Another trend in the Championship is for one of the three promoted sides to challenge for - and possibly finish in - the top six.

Both Leeds and Norwich - sides with strong squads, large fan bases, and talented young managers - could be teams who will feature in the race for the top six in 2010/11.

Promoted sides in general, tend to do well, so it would be no surprise to see the other team coming up from League One, Millwall, more than hold their own."

Indeed, Norwich made it successive promotions finishing as runners-up. Leeds ended up 7th, just outside the play off positions, and Millwall ended up a more than respectable 9th.

Swansea bucked the recent trend to win the Championship play offs this season

Moving onto League One, where I looked back and suggested that:

"At the bottom there seems to be a trend for some of the smaller promoted sides to last no longer than two or three seasons before returning from whence they came.

"By that logic, promoted duo Rochdale and Dagenham & Redbridge - both real novices at this level - may struggle."

Ultimately it wasn't Dale but promoted Notts County who along with Dagenham battled against relegation. The Daggers lost their fight, and Notts narrowly won theirs.

As for the other end of the table:

"At the top, it is safe to assume that a couple of the relegated sides should figure in and around the promotion race.

I would suggest that Peterborough, despite their poor campaign last year, should strongly figure in the promotion race this term."

Sheffield Wednesday began brightly but tailed off as the season progressed. Posh, albeit with a change of manager, continued to hunt an instant return to the Championship - finishing 4th before winning promotion via the play offs.

I also suggested:

"There is also a trend for a progressive club who have been gradually improving year upon year to take the final step and claim promotion.

"It would look likely then that one of last season's play-off losers Huddersfield and Swindon plus the 7th placed team, Southampton, could be celebrating come May."

Well Swindon bombed on their way to ending up bottom, but Southampton secured promotion finishing as runners-up and Huddersfield only fell down in the play off final after finishing 3rd.

Peterborough bounced back at the first time of asking - just as predicted

I acknowledged that League Two was a tricky division to call, but suggested that:

"Promoted sides tend to be those who haven't been in the division for long. That statistic suggests that promotion tends to be won by sides with momentum or those who have rebuilt after relegation and naturally belong at a higher level.

"The second group could incorporate Bradford City, Port Vale, Chesterfield, and Rotherham. Two of those teams could be good bets to finish in the top three and gain automatic promotion."

Bradford failed to hit the heights, but all the others were firmly involved in the top seven race. In the end, Chesterfield were worthy winners of the basement division, with Rotherham and Port Vale narrowly missing out on the play offs.

Wycombe instantly bounced back from relegation the previous year, and Torquay continued their upwards momentum after promotion into the League in 2009 to end up 7th.

I'll admit I was hardly sticking my neck out saying that:

"Sides promoted from the Conference tend to do well."

Oxford finished a respectable 12th and Stevenage ended up 6th and made it successive promotions as play off winners in the basement division.

I also forecast in League Two that:

"At the bottom, the two relegation places tend to be filled by either teams with off-field financial worries and teams who have flirted with relegation in the recent past - or a combination of both."

Indeed, Stockport ended up bottom after recent years of financial mismanagement and administration caught up with the Edgeley Park outfit.

Lincoln also dropped into the Conference, after flirting with the drop the previous campaign. They were relegated on the final day by a great escape from a Barnet side for whom I'd suggested:

"Have ended their last two seasons in 17th and 21st, a trend which doesn't bode well."

Stevenage continued the tradition of promoted sides doing well in League Two

So how did I score overall?

Championship:

Bottom half to play-off winners: Crystal Palace
QPR went from bottom half to divisional winners though.
Top half to relegated: Doncaster Rovers
Donny ended up 21st, but Sheffield United went from top half to relegated.
Promoted side to challenge: Leeds United
Leeds did challenge, but Norwich went one better to win successive promotions.
One relegation battle too many: Barnsley
Another lower mid table finish for the Reds, but Scunthorpe lost their second successive relegation battle.

League One:

Relegated and bounce back instantly: Peterborough United
Peterborough were instantly promoted back as play off winners.
Making the leap to promotion: Southampton
Southampton finished runners-up and were promoted.
Relegation catching up with them: Hartlepool United
Pools actually enjoyed a rare season of comfort under Mick Wadsworth.
Immediately relegated back down: Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham lost their fight against the drop on the final day.

League Two:

Rebuilt and ready to rumble: Port Vale
They rumbled under Micky Adams, but it was Chesterfield who'd rebuilt best.
A club on the up: Burton Albion
Not the Brewers, but the side promoted with them in 2009 - Torquay finished in the play offs. Stevenage continued their upwards trajectory too.
Paying for their flirting: Macclesfield Town
Not a chance, they ended up 15th. Lincoln paid for their previous flirting though.
Lack of money and results: Accrington Stanley
Nowhere near, but Stockport filled this particular vacancy.

So there we have it. While my own predictions for the teams to fill the historical roles were often wayward, the trends themselves were largely accurate.

It shows that history does have a part to play when forecasting the future. Particularly in that notoriously unpredictable division of the Championship.

Everyone says it's a hard league to call, but perhaps that's because people don't look back at previous years.

Predicted Tables Review

2011-06-06T08:59:00.000+01:00

At the beginning of the campaign, the lads all predicted how the Championship, League One and League Two tables would look like come the end of the season.

How did they score though?

The points scoring works as follows:

For every spot-on prediction of where a club would finish, ten points are rewarded.

Things then descend on a scale of five points for being one position off down to one point for being five places off.

Predictions that were between six and nine places off pick up no points.

A prediction ten places off means one point is taken off the total. Being 11 places off equates to a two point penalty all the way up to five points off for being incorrect by 14 positions.

A prediction inaccurate by more than 14 places sees a 10 point penalty dealt out.

Here's how they scored for each of the divisions then:

Lakes was the clear victor in the Championship prediction stakes. He racked up a superb 62 points, including ten point hauls from Coventry, Hull, and his very own Preston.

Runners-up Norwich proved his biggest thorn, costing him five points. Derby were another stumbling block with four points being taken off his tally for their poor showing.

Nobes took 39 points from the Championship, with twenty of his total being accrued from spot on forecasts for Preston and Scunthorpe. However, he lost the same number from Swansea and Sheffield United.

Turls came in a close third with 32 points. He scored a full ten points from Burnley and did well with Hull and Bristol City. He lost ten points for his forecast for Sheffield United though.

After the Championship the scores stood at:

1. Lakes - 62 2. Nobes - 37 3. Turls - 32
Into League One, where the lads performed well below their Championship record. Having said that, Lakes was again the best performer though.

With the likes of Tranmere, Walsall, Southampton, and Colchester all scoring highly for him. He lost ten points from Leyton Orient though.

Nobes performed miserably with just eight points in total from League One. He picked up ten points from Huddersfield but lost twenty from wildly incorrect forecasts for Plymouth and Swindon.

However, it was even worse for Turls, who ended up on -13 points for his League One efforts. Incorrect predictions for Plymouth, Leyton Orient, and Swindon totalling minus 30 points.

That left the standings at:

1. Lakes - 82 2. Nobes - 45 3. Turls - 19

Into League Two, where Lakes continued his impressive form to wrap up a hugely comfortable victory in the Predicted Table standings.

Head and shoulders above the other two, he scored 50 points from his League Two predictions. That included spot on forecasts for Morecambe, Gillingham, Northampton, and Stockport.

He could even afford to lose fifteen points for poor predictions for Shrewsbury, Bradford, and Accrington.

Nobes again came in second, with 24 points to his name. He managed just one spot on prediction, in Lincoln, but also lost ten points for getting Accrington's finishing position badly wrong.

For the second time in the competition, Turls posted a negative score as he registered -18 for his League Two predictions.

Particular lowlights were losing ten points from Bradford and Stevenage. Four point hauls from Crewe, Barnet, and Port Vale were his best effort.

The table in end looked like this therefore, with Lakes easing to an embarrassingly comprehensive win and Nobes well ahead of Turls in second:

1. Lakes - 162 2. Nobes - 71 3. Turls - 1

Overall, the Championship was easily the best division for the lads to predict, and League One the hardest.

The highest scoring team were, maybe unsurprisingly, Preston North End. With 24 points in total being scored by the lads from Preston.

The lowest scoring teams were surprise League One flops Plymouth and Swindon, who cost the lads 24 points in total.

Talking Points - June 2011

2011-06-01T20:06:00.007+01:00

What was on the lads' minds during the close season month of June:

The History Book: Review
How successful was Nobes' attempts to use history and trends to try and predict the 2010/11 season's outcomes.

Managerial Sackings Review
Nobes assesses every managerial sacking in the Football League during the past campaign - and gives his verdict on their respective wisdom.

Come In Out Of The Rain
With ex-England boss Steve McClaren returning to the domestic game at Nottingham Forest, Nobes reflects upon his rehabilitation process.

Everything Must Go
Does relegated West Ham's hiring of Sam Allardyce represent an abandoning of the club's principles? Nobes considers.

A Beautiful New Day
With Alex McLeish walking out on Birmingham to join local rivals Aston Villa, Nobes suggests his old club could be better off without him.

It Takes An Einstein
As Keith Hill fills the vacancy at Barnsley created by Mark Robins' resignation, Nobes looks at the Yorkshire side's future prospects.

Crossing Enemy Lines
As ex-Sheffield Wednesday boss Danny Wilson takes over at Sheffield United, Nobes observes other bosses who've trascended local rivals.

Flavour Of The Month
Torquay's appointment of Martin Ling has Nobes looking at the damaging consequences of how quickly a manager's stock can rise and fall.

Talking Points - May 2011

2011-05-31T20:00:00.001+01:00

What the lads were thinking in May 2011:

Final Day Preview
Nobes looks ahead to the final day of action in the Football League.

Prediction League Review
Looking back at the story of the Prediction League season.

Prediction League Review

2011-05-23T08:58:00.000+01:00

Another season over, and history was made in the Soccer AM/MW history with the Prediction League crown being successfully defended for the first time ever.

In truth, the race for the title, convincingly won by Nobes once again, wouldn't win any prizes for its drama. The defending champion led from the front throughout - spending a remarkable 37 out of 41 weeks on top.

However, it was the second half of the season form from Lakes - which saw the perennial wooden spoon winner put pressure on the leader which was arguably the story of the season.

Here's the story of how the race transpired.

Weeks 1-5

Turls topped the first table, but it wasn't long before Nobes got into his stride, scoring four points and then three points in successive weeks to build up a four point advantage over Lakes at the top.

1. Nobes - 14
2. Lakes - 10
3. Turls - 8

Weeks 6-10

At the top, Nobes was determined to stay there with ten points in the next five rounds seeing him pull further away at the top. He now had a seven point margin over his rivals.

Turls moved into second with ten points of his own, but Lakes wasn't far behind. The two would continue to run one another close all season.

1. Nobes - 24
2. Turls - 18
3. Lakes - 17

Weeks 10-15

The fightback begins. After his blistering start, Nobes continued at a decent pace, but found himself outgunned by his rivals.

Lakes had a sensational period, collecting 15 points - and Turls with 14 also had an impressive run of predictions. The pair were separated by just the number of spot-on predictions, and Nobes' lead at the top was down to three.

1. Nobes - 35
2. Turls - 32
3. Lakes - 32

Weeks 16-20

After the feast came the famine, with low scoring all round between Weeks 16 and 20. However, it produced a dramatic finish.

Nobes went three weeks without scoring, which allowed Turls and Lakes to catch up with the defending champion and leave them all locked on the same number of points at the end of Week 20.

It was unprecedented, and they had to be separated by the number of spot on predictions they each had. However, Turls and Lakes found themselves equal on both that score as well as the number of points won from their own team.

1. Nobes - 38
2. Lakes - 38
= Turls - 38

Weeks 21-25

What he had been threatening to do finally came to fruition in Week 22, as Lakes topped the Prediction League table for the first time in the season.

Week 21 had seen him bottom, with Nobes and Turls joint top, but Lakes hit back with seven points in Week 22. Turls bagged four points himself, as Nobes was dumped to the bottom.

By the end of Week 23, Lakes sat six points ahead of Nobes and had a three point advantage at the top. He was the man in form at the mid point of the campaign.

However, like all good champions, Nobes responded in emphatic fashion. He was back up to second by Week 24 and then an amazing Week 25 saw him collect ten points.

Now he was back on top and held a four point lead over Lakes - who could barely believe the turnaround. Little did he know Nobes wouldn't relinquish top spot again.

1. Nobes - 59
2. Lakes - 55
3. Turls - 50

Weeks 26-30

After the drama of recent weeks, the next phase saw little action. Nine points saw Nobes cement his position at the top. A second successive crown was looking ominous.

Having led the table for a few weeks, Lakes suddenly found himself in familiar territory in rock bottom spot at the end of Week 30 though. Turls having found some form to edge ahead by a point.

1. Nobes - 68
2. Turls - 63
3. Lakes - 62

Weeks 31-35

Lakes soon picked himself off the bottom, dumping Turls into third - where he'd remain for the rest of the season.

He then set about closing in on Nobes at the top and reduced a nine point deficit at the end of Week 34 to just four by the end of Week 35. He was hitting form as the season reached its climax.

1. Nobes - 78
2. Lakes - 74
3. Turls - 70

Weeks 36-41

It seemed the story of the season was Nobes saving his best form for whenever his position at the top came under the greatest threat.

The defending champion racked up six points in Week 36 to re-establish a healthy nine point lead over Lakes in second. The title looked destined to go his way.

Lakes cut it back to six the next week, but by the end of Week 38 Nobes sat ten clear at the summit - with Lakes conceding the title only to remember the play off matches still to take place.

Given fresh hope, he scored six points in Week 39 and now was closing in on Nobes - just five points behind.

However, it was to prove too much and five more points in the final two rounds were enough to secure Nobes a healthy win over his rivals.

Lakes managed to hold off a late rally from Turls, who ended up just three points behind in.

Final table

1. Nobes - 97
2. Lakes - 89
3. Turls - 87

In the end, an eight point margin gave Nobes a comfortable win in the Prediction League.

However, it's a sign of how poor the lads were this season compared to last that Lakes, who finished bottom in 2009/10, actually scored 108 points last season.

All three of the lads struggled to match their previous form, with Turls in particular struggling to predict games spot on - he got just seven scorelines all season correct.

He was also the most reliant on his own team for points, with 35 of his total coming from matches involving Forest.

It's probably to be expected that Nobes, with 17, secured the most spot on predictions, but he also picked up the fewest number of points from his own side's games.

What if...

2011-05-20T16:45:00.000+01:00

Enter our paradoxical world as we pose the questions as to how things in the footballing world could have turned out very differently when we ask: What if...

... Stevenage had been promoted in 1996?

What if Stevenage hadn't been denied promotion in 1996 because of their ground? Nobes considers how different the Football League they enter this season is to the one 14 years ago.

... ITV Digital hadn't gone bust?

What if ITV Digital hadn't left so many Football League clubs in the lurch when they went bust and withdrew their funding? Turls looks at the momentous events of 2002.

... Re-election hadn't ended?

What if automatic promotion and relegation between the Football and Non Leagues had never been introduced? Nobes looks at the watershed moment of 1987.

Nobes' Trivia 7: solutions

2011-05-20T10:38:00.003+01:00

Nobes reveals the solutions to his final batch of trivia questions for the season.

Question One - In Common

At the time of writing, seven Championship clubs have these, seven have them in League One, and there's seven in League Two. What?

Solution: They all have the same managers in charge who began the previous campaign with them.

Question Two - Odd One Out

Which of these clubs is the odd one out?

Bury, Hereford, Norwich, Peterborough, Sheffield United, Tranmere, Watford.

Solution: Tranmere are the odd one out. While they play at Prenton Park, all the other sides play at grounds named after the street, lane, or road they're situated on.

Question Three - Where's Nobes?

Which Football League ground is Nobes at?

This ground was constructed copying a design from a stadium in Italy.

Outside the stadium is a statue which features running water.

It is notable for having three stands with faces of some of the club's most successful players picked out in the seating.

Solution: Nobes was at Preston North End's Deepdale ground.

Doctor Lakes

2011-05-19T16:43:00.000+01:00

Is there a doctor in the Soccer AM/MW building? Yes, yes there is. Our doctor doesn't travel through time, he doesn't even have a magic tool - no jokes, please. However he does know his football.

We call him Doctor Lakes, and he gives his expert diagnosis on the health and well-being of football clubs up and down the Football League.

Championship 2009/10 review
Looking at how the campaign went for the 24 Championship sides. Who's in good condition and who needs a summer off to rest?

League One 2009/10 review
Assessing how the season panned out for the teams in League One. Are they fully fit or a cause for concern?

League Two 2009/10 review
What kind of shaoe are the sides of League Two in? Did they pass their physical or did they pick up a prescription on their way home?

2010/11 season:

Burnley

Relegated from the Premier League last term, are the Clarets in good enough health to quickly recover their lost status?

Queens Park Rangers

Top of the Championship and starting the season unbeaten in 19 games, are Rangers the real deal when it comes to promotion?

Leicester City

With Sven at the helm and money being pumped in, are Leicester in rude health for a second half of the season push for the play offs?

Memory Lane

2011-05-17T16:40:00.001+01:00

Contrary to what some people say, football did actually exist before 1992 and the inception of the Premier League.

We often like to take a trip into the past here at Soccer AM/MW. Here are our walks down Memory Lane.

Where are they now?

What happened to the clubs who were once members of the Football League?

Workington

What happened to the Cumbrian side once managed by Bill Shankley?

Glossop North End

The smallest town to ever have a top flight club, but where are the Hillmen now?

Nelson

In the shadow of so many other Lancashire clubs, what happened to the Admirals when they dropped out of the Football League?

Bradford Park Avenue

Once among England's elite, what happened afterwards for Bradford's other football club?

Southport

In the Football League for over 50 years, what happened to the club from one of Lancashire's coastal resorts?

Classic Campaigns

The Football League campaigns which, for one reason or another, live long in the memory.

2000/01 Championship

A year of runaway champions, but one of the most dramatic relegation battles in Championship history.

1986/87 League Two

Differing fortunes for two of Lancashire's traditional clubs, and the part one dog called Bryn played in deciding the basement division's first relegation battle.

Fan Files

2011-05-16T16:37:00.002+01:00

Throughout the season we talk to the real fans of football - folk who follow their local club up and down the country. From Rushden to Reading, and Cambridge to Coventry, we get to the heart of what it's like to be a lower league supporter.

Here you can read all our interviews from the Fan Files.

2009/10 season:

Rochdale

Dale fan Jon tells us what it's like supporting a side who haven't been promoted or relegated in over 30 years.

Chester City

City supporter John discusses the current problems surrounding the troubled Conference club on and off the pitch.

Wycombe Wanderers

The difficulties in making the step-up from League Two to League One, as Chairboys fan Tim explains.

Torquay United

The Gulls have returned to the Football League and Torquay fan Shaun tells us what it's like to be back.

Notts County

They're the League Two side everyone is talking about and County fan Keith gives us the lowdown on what life is like now at Notts County.

Rushden & Diamonds

Rushden are surprise challengers for promotion to the Football League, Diamonds fan James tells us about the former 'moneybag's' revival.

Carlisle United

Ahead of their appearance in the JPT Final, Cumbrians supporter Dave tells us about his love of the competition and the excitement of following Carlisle.

Conference Play Off Final

Oxford supporter Clive and York fan David talk to us about their sides clash in the Conference Play Off Final and a potential return to the Football League.

2010/11 season:

Shrewsbury Town

A good start to the season has Shrewsbury towards the top of League Two, Salop fan Matt talks about trying to bring back the good times at Town.

Yeovil Town

Glovers supporter Ben talks to us about happier times for the Somerset club as they battle to stay in League One.

The views expressed in these interviews are those of the individual and not Soccer AM/MW.

Prediction League Week 41

2011-05-16T08:51:00.000+01:00

After dominating the League all season, Nobes can't now be caught at the summit of the Prediction League.

Last year's winner has led from the front all year, and held off a brave challenge from Lakes towards the end.

Turls can still prevent himself from finishing bottom though, but needs Forest to progress from their play off semi final this evening.

Swansea City vs. Nottingham Forest

Lakes: Swansea City 1-2 Forest

Nobes: Swansea City 2-1 Forest
Turls: Swansea City 0-1 Forest

Trivia

2011-05-14T16:34:00.000+01:00

Fancy yourself as a bit of a football trivia buff? Well, Soccer AM/MW's Nobes does. Here's the full collection of posers he's set.

Season 2009/10

Question 1
Can you identify Nobes' link? Solution

Question 2
Another link for you to try and identify. Solution

Question 3
Can you work out where Nobes is? Solution

Question 4
What do Nobes' teams have in common? Solution

Question 5
Nobes is on his travels again - but where is he this time? Solution

Question 6
Another football teaser to get you thinking. Solution

Question 7
Where's Nobes this week? Solution

Question 8
Three questions - one common theme. Solution

Question 9
A footballing rarity - but what's Nobes referring to? Solution

Question 10
Which clubs' Noughties managerial chains are being described? Solution

Christmas Trivia Quiz
Nobes is the question master as Lakes and Turls go head-to-head in a mammoth football trivia face-off. Can you beat their scores?

Question 11
Nobes in on his travels once more, where is he this time? Solution

Question 12
Find the connection - and the missing team. Solution

Question 13
Plenty of clubs but what links them all? Solution

Question 14
Can you work out which ground Nobes is at? Solution

Question 15

Which footballing occurrence is being described? Solution

Question 16

What have the three clubs been unable to do? Solution

Question 17

He's at a ground - can you work out where Nobes is? Solution

Question 18

Only four teams have ever done it - but what? Solution

Question 19

He's on his travels again - where is Nobes though? Solution

Question 20

The last question of the season - and a final link. Solution

End of Season Trivia Quiz

Lakes and Turls face questions from Nobes on the past nine months of the Football League season. Who will emerge as the winner?

World Cup Question

Nobes with a special question themed on the FIFA World Cup. Solution

Season 2010/11

A new season and a new format. Three questions every month to get you thinking.

Nobes' Trivia: 1

Can you spot the odd-one-out, the link, and the rare occurrence? Solutions

Nobes' Trivia: 2

A cryptic connection, important numbers, plus Where's Nobes? Solutions

Nobes' Trivia: 3

Travelling Nobes, the odd-one-out, and a mystery achievement. Solutions

Christmas Trivia Quiz

It's that time of year again - Turls vs. Lakes in the big trivia quiz.

Nobes' Trivia: 4

Two connections and where's Nobes this week? Solutions

Nobes' Trivia: 5

Similarites, differences, and another ground for Nobes to visit. Solutions

Nobes' Trivia: 6

Connecting, isolating, and travelling Nobes. Solutions

Nobes' Trivia: 7

Things in common, odd ones out, and a final trip for Nobes. Solutions

Big Match: 2010/11

2011-05-13T10:32:00.000+01:00

All the big match previews and reviews from the 2010/11 season:

Championship

Including: Preston vs. Portsmouth; Coventry vs. Leicester City; Doncaster vs. Nottingham Forest; Watford vs. Scunthorpe United; Norwich vs. Leeds; Derby vs. Reading; Swansea vs. Crystal Palace; Ipswich Town vs. Sheffield Utd; Middlesbrough vs. Queens Park Rangers; Hull City vs. Norwich; Nottingham Forest vs. Reading; Leeds vs. Burnley.

League One

Including: Colchester vs. Sheff Wed; Huddersfield vs. Bournemouth; Peterborough United vs. MK Dons; Dagenham & Redbridge vs. Walsall; Tranmere Rovers vs. Plymouth Argyle; Southampton vs. Brentford; Colchester United vs. Charlton Athletic; Walsall vs. Bristol Rovers; Bournemouth vs. Huddersfield Town; Swindon Town vs. Dagenham; Southampton vs. MK Dons; Leyton Orient vs. Peterborough.

League Two

Including: Stevenage vs. Macclesfield Town; Port Vale vs. Torquay; Burton vs. Crewe; Bury vs. Accrington; Northampton Town vs. Gillingham; Oxford vs. Barnet; Torquay vs. Cheltenham; Stockport County vs. Lincoln; Crewe vs. Gillingham; Rotherham United vs. Barnet; Port Vale vs. Bury; Shrewsbury vs. Stockport; Chesterfield vs. Gillingham.

FA Cup

Including: Rochdale vs. FC United of Manchester; Dover vs. Aldershot Town; Preston vs. Nottingham Forest.

Prediction League week 40 continued

2011-05-12T08:50:00.004+01:00

Back to back titles are almost secure for Nobes, with four points at the weekend almost giving him a second successive crown.

The league enters its final stretch with Nottingham Forest playing the first leg of their play off semi final this evening against Swansea.

Both Boston and Preston's seasons have come to an end.

Nottingham Forest vs. Swansea City

Lakes: Forest 1-0 Swansea City

Nobes: Forest 2-1 Swansea City
Turls: Forest 1-0 Swansea City

Big Match Review - Chesterfield 3 Gillingham 1

2011-05-09T08:47:00.004+01:00

Chesterfield 3-1 Gillingham

Saturday May 7, b2net Stadium, (Att: 10,023)

Three second half goals helped long term leaders Chesterfield clinch the League Two title and deny Gillingham a place in the end of season play offs.

The Spireites opened the scoring on 54 minutes when Danny Whittaker seized on a mistake at the back to round Alan Julian and slip the ball home.

However, the Kent side - knowing they had to get a result to have a chance of a top seven spot - were soon back on level termsCody McDonald latching onto Bayo Akinfenwa's through ball to clip the ball over Tommy Lee and give the Gills hope.

The home team hit back though, and restored their advantage when Jack Lester was on hand to tap home Scott Griffith's low centre from close range.

They wrapped up the game and the title when Dean Smalley converted another cross from the left at the back post to make it 3-1.

It capped a memorable first year at the b2net Stadium for John Sheridan's men. For Gillingham though, a season which had begun with such high hopes has failed to deliver.

Prediction League Week 40

2011-05-06T08:53:00.004+01:00

Time's running out for Lakes to mount a late surge for the Prediction League crown, with five points separating him and Nobes in the standings.

This weekend see the final game of the season for Preston. Boston play the second leg of their play off tie on Sunday.

Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest

Lakes: Crystal Palace 1-2 Forest
Nobes: Crystal Palace 1-1 Forest
Turls: Crystal Palace 0-1 Forest

Preston North End vs. Watford

Lakes: PNE 1-1 Watford
Nobes: PNE 2-1 Watford
Turls: PNE 2-1 Watford

Boston United vs. Guiseley

Lakes: Skyrockets 2-0 Guiseley
Nobes: Skyrockets 2-1 Guiseley
Turls: Skyrockets 2-0 Guiseley

Big Match Preview - Chesterfield vs. Gillingham

2011-05-05T08:32:00.012+01:00

Chesterfield vs. Gillingham

Saturday May 7, 15:00, b2net Stadium

Two sides with plenty still to play for on the final day clash in Derbyshire this weekend as top of the table Chesterfield play host to Gillingham.

The Gills still harbour hopes of finishing in the play offs, and know they must get something from the game. A point for the home side will confirm them as the basement division winners.

John Sheridan's side would have expected to have sealed the title after months of leading the way. However, a recent blip has seen the already-promoted Spireites still needing a result.

That's because a defeat, coupled with a win for second-placed Bury, would see the Shakers steal the crown from under Chesterfield's nose on goal difference alone.

They will be hoping it's a case of third time lucky in sealing top spot though, having been beaten by Bury 3-2 in their last home match before a 0-0 draw at Torquay in their most recent game.

That loss to their title rivals was only Chesterfield's fourth defeat on home soil this term as they have built their promotion campaign on an imperious record at the new b2net stadium.

No League Two side has won more home games than the Spireites this term, and with 56 goals bagged in their 22 games, they pose an unnerving threat going forwards to visiting back lines.

In striker Craig Davies they also possess one of the division's deadliest strikers, with 25 strikes already to his name. Veteran Jack Lester also has 16 goals this term too.

John Sheridan's Chesterfield have led League Two almost all season

For opponents Gillingham, they know that a season that had begun with such high hopes still has a possibility to end in promotion.

Andy Hessenthaler's men had expected to be challenging in Chesterfield's position, but endured a nightmare start to the campaign languishing towards the foot of the division.

A loss to Kent rivals Dover Athletic in the FA Cup further compounded matters and heaped on the pressure on Hessenthaler - in his second spell in charge of the club - to start delivering.

However, the Gills recovered and, having ended their away day hoodoo, embarked on a run which propelled them firmly into the race for the top seven - and even automatic promotion spots.

They've stuttered over recent weeks though - suffering 4-2 and 4-1 home losses to Barnet and Macclesfield respectively. Those defeats have dealt a severe blow to their hopes.

Even a win at the b2net on Saturday may not be enough if play off rivals Torquay and Stevenage both earn three points themselves. The Gills could then miss out purely on goal difference.

It promises to be a tension-filled afternoon though, but I have a feeling that only set of supporters will be cheering come full time.

A point apiece will be enough to earn Chesterfield a deserved title, but with results elsewhere it may prove to be a disappointing climax to the campaign for Gillingham.

Nobes' Prediction: Chesterfield 1 Gillingham 1

Final Day Preview

2011-05-04T08:51:00.006+01:00

With the final weekend of the regular season drawing near, Nobes looks at the issues yet to be decided in the Football League and predicts what will happen.

The only race still going on is between Nottingham Forest and Leeds for the final play off berth.

Leeds must win and hope Forest lose - as well as requiring a six goal swing in their favour to take sixth spot from the East Midlands outfit.

Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest

You have to give huge credit to Forest boss Billy Davies. While others around him were losing their heads when the side went on a nine match winless run, he kept maintaining the race for the top six would go to the wire.

So it's proved, but only just. Four wins from five have seen Forest all but cement their spot in the play offs and only a mathematical freak will see them miss out now.

I don't see it happening, and a draw against a Palace side generally good at Selhurst Park will be more than enough to secure yet another top six finish for Davies.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 Nottingham Forest

Queens Park Rangers vs. Leeds United

There will be some serious questions asked about the bottle at Elland Road. Leeds almost choked last season in League One, and they've once again crumbled under the pressure of this year's run-in.

The last team they would want to be visiting needing a healthy victory are the Champions QPR. People forget that, for all their flair going forwards, Rangers are a very hard side to score against, let alone beat.

Leeds will give it a go, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a point - but they won't be ousting Forest.

Prediction: QPR 1 Leeds United 1

The relegation fight goes to the wire, with Bristol Rovers in all reality doomed to life in League Two next season. They will be joined by one of Notts County, Walsall, and Dagenham & Redbridge.

Notts County vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

What a quirk of the fixture list, with the three teams still battling to avoid the drop facing the top three sides in League One. A tough mission for all of them.

Notts have been revived under Martin Allen, who has used his famed motivational skills to help drag County out of a real mess.

I think they've probably done enough to see themselves safe - which is a good thing because Brighton will be looking to go out on a high on their way to the Championship next year.

Prediction: Notts County 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2

Southampton vs. Walsall

I thought Walsall were dead and buried earlier in the campaign, but should the Saddlers complete their great escape this weekend then Dean Smith deserves the freedom of the town.

He's engineered a remarkable turnaround following the departure of Chris Hutchings, although they have to face a formidable Saints side to ensure they remain in the third tier.

It's my belief that, had Nigel Adkins been at St Mary's all season, then they would have won League One ahead of Brighton. He wasn't though, and they will have to make do with finishing runners-up and will win here.

Prediction: Southampton 1 Walsall 0

Peterborough United vs. Dagenham & Redbridge

Given the resources available at Victoria Road, boss John Still has done another incredible job to get the Daggers still in with a shout of survival on the final Saturday.

However, a trip to London Road is a tough one to try and ensure a second successive year in League One next term.

Posh are a side who have great attacking flair and pace going forwards and I can see them picking off Daggers on the break as they warm up for the play offs and send Dagenham down.

Prediction: Peterborough United 3 Dagenham & Redbridge 0

Huddersfield Town vs. Brentford

You have to feel sorry for Huddersfield. Lee Clark's side have been on an unbelievable unbeaten run that, any other season, would have seen them gain automatic promotion.

Unfortunately, the Terriers have come up against superior opponents in Southampton and will have to settle for a crack at promotion via the play offs.

Difficult to see a Bees side with nothing to play for stopping Town from ending their regular campaign with another three points.

Prediction: Huddersfield Town 2 Brentford 0

Issues all over the basement division to be decided. One of Barnet or Lincoln will join Stockport in being relegated to the Conference.

The fight for the third automatic promotion spot is a fight between Wycombe and Shrewsbury. Two from Torquay, Stevenage and Gillingham will make the end of season play offs.

Even long-time leaders Chesterfield need a point to secure the title ahead of a Bury side who can still nick it.

Chesterfield vs. Gillingham

We all thought Chesterfield would have sewn up the League Two title by now, but the Spireites have stumbled a little of late. Having led the table for so long this term too, it would be awful if they didn't end the season as worthy Champions.

Fortunately, they only need a draw - although they take on a Gillingham side who will know they must take something from the game to be in with a shout of the play offs.

Andy Hessenthaler's side have slipped up at home of late - and it may cost them a place in the play offs. Which would be an undoubted failure given their pre season expectations.

Prediction: Chesterfield 1 Gillingham 1

Rotherham United vs. Torquay United

If you'd told someone at the start of the season that one of these two sides would need a result from this game to get into the top seven, you'd have predicted that side would be Rotherham.

Not so though, as the Gulls know a win will secure them a play off spot. That would be a terrific accomplishment from Paul Buckle, who continues to strengthen his cause as one of the lower league's most talented young bosses.

They take on a Rotherham side who have struggled to take off under Andy Scott and have nothing to play for. Add in the Devon side's good record against top half sides, and I fancy a Torquay win to cement a top seven spot.

Prediction: Rotherham United 1 Torquay United 2

Stevenage vs. Bury

No one likes them, and they don't care. Indeed, Stevenage boss Graham Westley probably uses it as motivation to inspire his team in what's been an impressive debut season in the Football League.

Stevenage are a very competitive team, and have a solid record at Broadhall Way. They will be awkward opponents for any side over two legs in the play offs.

And I expect them to be in those play offs by gaining a victory over an already promoted Bury on Saturday. The Shakers blew their chance for the title last weekend really, and that may well affect them psychologically.

Prediction: Stevenage 2 Bury 1

Shrewsbury Town vs. Oxford United

After play off final defeats in 2007 and 2009, Shrewsbury fans will be dreading entering the end of season lottery and will have all fingers crossed that they can pip Wycombe to third spot.

Graham Turner's men have probably slightly overachieved this term, having consistently been in and around the top three despite a radical overhaul of the playing squad and style in the summer.

I think they'll have enough to beat an Oxford side who, although having had a good first season back in the Football League, have nothing to play for now. WEill it be enough though?

Prediction: Shrewsbury Town 2 Oxford United 0

Wycombe Wanderers vs. Southend United

These two sides were relegated from League One together last season, but it's Wanderers who now stand on the verge of returning there.

It's been an up and down campaign for Gary Waddock's men, who have often flattered to deceive and they will definitely need strengthening over the summer to prevent a swift return back to League Two in 12 months time.

As it is, I expect them to enjoy a promotion party at Adams Park this weekend with three points being enough to see them over the line.

Prediction: Wycombe Wanderers 1 Southend United 0

Barnet vs. Port Vale

I wrote an article a couple of months back suggesting the fight for League Two survival would be a huge anti climax. Barnet have proved me badly wrong though and can still beat the drop on Saturday.

That's an incredible feat considering the Bees have been a shambles all season, and always seem to flirt with relegation. The short-lived return of Martin Allen did seem to galvanise them and has given them the impetus required to survive.

Port Vale have nothing to play for - and I just fancy Barnet - with home advantage and knowing that they just need to go for the win - may well get the three points and then hope for a good result from Sincil Bank.

Prediction: Barnet 2 Port Vale 1

Lincoln City vs. Aldershot Town

Deary me. How on earth have Lincoln allowed to get themselves into such a mess? The Imps looked just about safe a few weeks back, but have embarked on a dreadful run of form at the worst possible time.

Now they could end up slipping back down into the Conference for the first time since 1988. I feel for Steve Tilson, who has done his best with a woeful squad left behind by Chris Sutton.

Aldershot are tricky opponents too. They are difficult to beat under Dean Holdsworth - particularly away from home. I can see them making life very uncomfortable for City and earning a draw - relegating Lincoln on goal difference.

Prediction: Lincoln City 1 Aldershot Town 1

Prediction League Week 39 continued

2011-05-03T08:40:00.005+01:00

Lakes is refusing to give in in the race for the Prediction League title. Five points over the weekend cutting Nobes' advantage at the top to six.

This evening sees one match, with Boston playing the first leg of their play off semi final.

Guiseley vs. Boston United

Lakes: Guiseley 2-1 Skyrockets
Nobes: Guiseley 1-1 Skyrockets
Turls: Guiseley 1-0 Skyrockets

Big Match Review - Leeds 1 Burnley 0

2011-05-02T08:30:00.004+01:00

Leeds United 1-0 Burnley

Saturday April 30, Elland Road, (Att: 31,186)

A Ross McCormack goal maintained Leeds United's interest in the end of season play offs as they ended Burnley's own hopes of a top six finish at Elland Road.

The hosts began on the front foot and went close when Billy Paynter's effort from outside the box was just struck wide of the post.

Eddie Howe's men responded though, with Kasper Schmeichel being forced into a fine save from close range when Michael Duff latched onto Chris Iwelumo's flick on from a free kick.

The game was end to end and it was the Yorkshire side who again went close to opening the scoring when a Paynter header brought the best out of Burnley keeper Brian Jensen to deny him.

However, he was powerless to stop McCormack opening his United account on 33 minutes as he latched onto an incisive through ball to sweep the ball past the Clarets custodian.

Simon Grayson's side went in search of a second, and Paynter twice went close in a matter of minutes. First seeing Jensen save a header and then rolling the ball into the side netting from a difficult angle.

The Lancashire outfit were hanging on, and were once more indebted to Jensen in goal for keeping out Andy O'Brien's powerful header from a free kick and a low effort from McCormack.

Burnley almost made United pay for those missed chances too. Schemichel being forced to tip over a Ross Wallace free kick and then the Whites survived a late goalmouth scramble.

The win leaves Leeds three points off the play offs, knowing even a victory in their final game at Champions QPR might not be enough to overtake Nottingham Forest in 6th.

Prediction League Week 39

2011-04-29T08:52:00.003+01:00

It was a good Easter weekend for both Nobes and Turls. The former was the highest scorer with six points to stretch his lead at the summit to ten points.

For Turls, who claimed five points, he now lies within striking distance of Lakes as he looks to avoid taking home the wooden spoon.

In the penultimate weekend of the regular season for Preston and Forest, North End are away from home for the final time and Forest have their last home fixture.

Boston's regulation season ends this weekend at home, but they have play off games to come.

Ipswich Town vs. Preston North End

Lakes: Ipswich Town 1-0 PNE
Nobes: Ipswich Town 1-1 PNE
Turls: Ipswich Town 0-1 PNE

Nottingham Forest vs. Scunthorpe United

Lakes: Forest 4-2 Scunthorpe United
Nobes: Forest 2-0 Scunthorpe United
Turls: Forest 3-1 Scunthorpe United

Boston United vs. Vauxhall Motors

Lakes: Skyrockets 2-0 Vauxhall Motors
Nobes: Skyrockets 2-1 Vauxhall Motors
Turls: Skyrockets 3-1 Vauxhall Motors

When It Rains...

2011-04-29T01:42:00.012+01:00

In the wake of Preston North End's relegation from the npower Championship, Lakes explains why next season might be one of consolidation at best for The Lilywhites.

"Deadly" Darren Ferguson is largely to blame for relegation

Darren Ferguson, Maurice Lindsay and Trevor Hemmings. Ask any Northender what they think of any of those names, and it's likely you'll get very little change out of a pocket full of swearwords.

'Never has so much been owed to so many by so few', is the presiding sentiment haunting the message boards.

Far from heralding an inspirational new era at Deepdale, Lindsay, Hemmings and Ferguson instead take the entire blame for Preston's Championship ambitions turning to dust.

For the uninitiated, Hemmings (Preston's majority shareholder when PNE were a PLC) bought out Preston, installing Maurice Lindsay at the helm as chairman, and getting friend's son Darren Ferguson in as manager.

Northenders deservedly, perhaps, expected a new wave of investment at Deepdale - and perhaps, finally, a properly bankrolled push for the Premier League.

What they got, cynics argue, was a new era of austerity, instead. Loans were the order of the day - a fragile strategy, dependent on the whims of the parties involved, as Preston were to find out to their cost.

After a string of dreadful performances and bizarre tactical displays, Ferguson's tenure was finally brought to an end.

The club was wrecked and seemingly destined for League One. But there was still hope - a new manager could bring change, and a push for safety.

That new manager would find himself without several key players, though, recalled by Ferguson Snr. upon hearing the news his son had been sacked.

What came next was the only positive in North End's season - Phil Brown. Saying and doing all the right things, it looked like survival could still be on the cards.

Yet time ran out for North End. Brown, inheriting a ruined side, could do little in the end - despite vastly improved performances and valiant displays.

When the final blow came, confirming North End's relegation (a defeat at home to Cardiff), Brown was on the verge of breaking down in tears in front of supporters - a true sign that he is passionate and committed.

He took the blame for relegation, yet most people won't look any further than the doorstep of Darren Ferguson, Trevor Hemmings and Maurice Lindsay.

Hemmings, for years a mysterious, benevolent figure, has turned in many fans' eyes into a scrimper, determined to finally wring some money from North End by rebuilding from scratch.

His mouthpiece, chairman Lindsay, has spoken in similar terms - encouraging a fresh start, naively enthusiastic about the prospect of a reduced wage bill and the cakewalk of League One.

A dreadful, dreadful mistake - and one which may prove more costly still for North End.

League One, as any self-respecting football fan would tell you, is not a cakewalk. Statistics show that teams dropping to the third tier have more chance of "doing a Plymouth" than "doing a Norwich".

Lindsay, however, seems oblivious to the difficulties teams face at that level, re-energising debate that Lindsay's first love is rugby.

Preston chairman Maurice Lindsay - a rugby fan?

And then, following relegation, Lindsay recorded "that interview" with BBC Radio Lancashire.

In it, Lindsay seemed to sincerely believe Darren Gibson was playing for Preston - a startling oversight for a chairman.

Other things were said that were much more hurtful to Preston fans - not least Lindsay's regular habit of using "they" in describing the club and supporters. I would urge a visit to the Preston North End Online forum for more detail on that.

It's not pleasant reading for Lindsay, but it's hard to disagree with anything written there.

A poll conducted on the site shows 85.93% of the 200 or so people sampled have no confidence in Maurice Lindsay, or are undecided. Meaning only 14.07% believe he's the man for the job.

It's as damning a poll as I've ever seen on the site and even accounting for post-relegation emotion and scapegoating, it doesn't imply an air of positivity among Preston fans right now.

The mood has certainly turned, from cautious optimism to severe doubt that the current regime is the right one to take the club back to the Championship.

It sounded so good when Hemmings came in. It sounded like we were on the road to prosperity. What we got was a cost-lowering relegation with suspicions of a deeper agenda at work behind the scenes.

After years of stability at Championship level, Preston fans have every right to be angry. And the exodus is yet to begin in earnest...

Big Match Preview - Leeds vs. Burnley

2011-04-28T08:36:00.004+01:00

Leeds United vs. Burnley

Saturday April 30, 12:45, Elland Road

It's do or die in the race for the Championship play offs this weekend as Leeds United and Burnley go head to head knowing that their chances of a top six finish hang in the balance.

With Nottingham Forest, who currently occupy the final play off spot, facing a Scunthorpe side as good as down, they know that anything less than three points could end their challenge come 5pm.

For United, it's a situation they would have found hard to envisage when, at the beginning of the month, they beat Forest 4-1 to move four points ahead of the East Midlands side.

However, since then Simon Grayson's men have lost three and drawn two of their next five games - a run which has seen them slide down to 9th - to lie three points adrift of the last play off berth.

Having come so close to throwing away automatic promotion from League One last term, it appears that Leeds have once again choked as the season has reached its climax.

However, Grayson will know that victory against Burnley will definitely give his side a chance of reaching the play offs going into their last game of the season at table topping QPR.

He will also draw strength from Leeds's imposing home record - with the Yorkshire side having lost just four times at Elland Road where they remain unbeaten since October.

They will hope that 20-goal striker Luciano Becchio will have returned from an ankle injury in time to play in a Leeds side that are the second highest scorers in the division.

Eddie Howe's Burnley have found form - but has it come too late for the top six?

In their way stand a Burnley team who are still able to bounce back immediately to the Premier League following relegation from the top flight after just a season last May.

The Clarets have been involved in and around the play off race all term, but made the decision to axe boss Brian Laws at the turn of the year and appointed the highly rated Eddie Howe from Bournemouth as his replacement.

The new man engineered an immediate turn around in fortunes, overseeing a run of one defeat in nine to guide the Lancashire outfit onto the fringes of the play offs with games in hand.

However, they then embarked on a seven match winless streak which has only recently been reversed in recent weeks with Burnley claiming ten points from their last four fixtures.

That's left them in 8th, just a couple of points behind Forest. Howe will be well aware that his side will have to do it the hard way though, with Saturday's game at Elland Road being followed by promotion-chasing Cardiff on the final day.

Key men for the Clarets include midfielder Chris Eagles and homegrown striker Jay Rodriguez - both with 14 goals to their name. The experienced Chris Iwelumo is also a threat in the air with his height and physicality.

With both sides knowing that only a win will do, this could well be an open and exciting game with plenty of goals. That's often the way with Leeds anyway, who will see this as their last chance saloon.

However, Burnley need the points too - and will look to avenge their 3-2 home loss to Leeds at Turf Moor earlier in the campaign. In the end though, it may well end in the draw which will do neither of them any good.

Nobes' Prediction: Leeds United 2 Burnley 2

Editorial 15

2011-04-27T08:40:00.003+01:00

Hello all!

So where did that season go then? OK, it's not yet over, but I can't believe that we're already approaching that time of the season where the fate of sides is being decided.

Of course, one such side has been Preston. It's fair to say that all of the Soccer AM/MW team were rooting for PNE to pull off the impossible and stage a great escape. Unfortunately, the damage done by Deadly Darren has proved irreperable.

However, we know that relegation isn't the end of the world, and Lakes is now looking forward to a play off push in League One next season.

I say looking forward, we all know it'll end in misery and heartache in the end of season lottery, it is Preston after all.

With the current season coming to a close, it also means the prediction league is also reaching an exciting climax.

I received a text from Lakes the other day suggesting I had wrapped up a second successive crown over the Bank Holiday weekend.

I reminded him of the forthcoming play off games, which he had apparently forgotten. If you ask me though, it was a cunning last-ditch mind game from the perennial wooden spoon winner.

I'm determined not to let it affect my form over the remaining weeks though, with potentially both Boston and Forest involved in the play offs to extend the regular campaign.

In other news, I was delighted to discover that, for some reason, we now have 250 people following us over on that Twitter thing.

Unlike Darron Gibson, it doesn't matter how much abuse people throw at us, we're going to remain on there. If only to prove that I am actually still alive.

I have to concede it's been a bit of a quiet month on the blog recently. However, there's still some good treats to read if you've missed them - including my look at how teams have adjusted to new grounds.

Also I posed the question of whether destiny plays any part in football. Don't believe so? Have a read and see if I can change your mind.

We'll be endeavouring to do justice in the coming weeks to the exciting times that are the play offs. You can't beat them, in my opinion, and I'll still be saying that even if the Skyrockets lose in them next month.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that though, eh?

All the best,

Nobes

Big Match Review - Leyton Orient 2 Peterborough 1

2011-04-26T08:54:00.004+01:00

Leyton Orient 2-1 Peterborough United

Friday April 22, Brisbane Road, (5,476)

A Ryan Jarvis goal deep into injury time secured Leyton Orient a vital win to boost their top six hopes and deal a body blow to Peterborough's hopes of automatic promotion.

It took until midway through the second half for the deadlock to be broken, with Posh defender Gabriel Zakuani - playing against his former club - sliding in to put a Stephen Dawson cross into his own net.

However, United hit back just eight minutes later with Nathaniel Mendez-Lang jumping highest to head a Grant McCann in.

It was the Londoners who claimed maximum spoils though, with Ryan Jarvis nodding home a deep cross from Jason Crowe to keep the O's play off dreams alive.

Orient now sit just three points off a place in the play offs - where they could still end up facing a Posh side for whom finishing in the top two is now out of reach.

Prediction League Week 38 continued

2011-04-25T08:35:00.002+01:00

Week 38 continues today with all three sides in action in their second Easter Bank Holiday weekend game with Boston and Forest on the road and Preston on home soil.

Nuneaton Town vs. Boston United

Lakes: Nuneaton Town 1-2 Skyrockets
Nobes: Nuneaton Town 1-1 Skyrockets
Turls: Nuneaton Town 2-1 Skyrockets

Bristol City vs. Nottingham Forest

Lakes: Bristol City 0-1 Forest
Nobes: Bristol City 1-1 Forest
Turls: Bristol City 1-2 Forest

Preston North End vs. Cardiff City

Lakes: PNE 2-1 Cardiff City
Nobes: PNE 1-2 Cardiff City
Turls: PNE 0-2 Cardiff City

Prediction League Week 38

2011-04-22T08:32:00.005+01:00

Just when Nobes pulls away, Lakes keeps up the chase - with four points for the latter closing the gap on the top to six points.

It now seems as though the destiny of the Prediction League title will be decided between the defending Champion and the one member of the team yet to win the League.

This weekend sees Forest and Boston on home soil while Preston hit the road for their penultimate away game.

Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester City

Lakes: Forest 2-0 Leicester City
Nobes: Forest 2-1 Leicester City
Turls: Forest 1-0 Leicester City

Millwall vs. Preston North End

Lakes: Millwall 1-2 PNE
Nobes: Millwall 1-1 PNE
Turls: Millwall 1-0 PNE

Boston United vs. Blyth Spartans

Lakes: Skyrockets 2-2 Blyth Spartans
Nobes: Skyrockets 2-1 Blyth Spartans
Turls: Skyrockets 2-0 Blyth Spartans

Big Match Preview - Leyton Orient vs. Peterborough

2011-04-21T08:50:00.004+01:00

Leyton Orient vs. Peterborough United

Friday April 22, 15:00, Brisbane Road

Two sides looking to make sure they enjoy a Good Friday clash in East London tomorrow afternoon as promotion hopefuls Peterborough visit a Leyton Orient side still with an eye on the play offs.

With games running out, and both sides playing catch-up in their respective races, they know that three points tomorrow are paramount if they are to keep their dreams alive.

For the home side, currently sitting in 8th place, they still harbour hopes of overturning a five point deficit to sneak into the final play off berth currently occupied by Bournemouth.

Orient were struggling towards the wrong end of the table in the Autumn, but inspired by a great run in the FA Cup went on a run of one defeat in 19 league matches.

It propelled Russell Slade's men to the very fringes of the play offs, but since the O's have won just one of their last eight to lose ground on their rivals at the very worst moment.

However, Slade - who has twice taken sides into the play offs during his managerial career - will know that, with his team's last two fixtures against struggling sides, that a win against Peterborough will keep his team in with a chance.

The O's have generally been solid at Brisbane Road this term, suffering just four defeats from 21 matches, although they have lost two of their last four to Southampton and a crushing 5-1 loss to Yeovil.

Key performers for Orient this season are veteran striker Scott McGleish with 17 goals in all competitions, and fellow forward Alex Revell has 14 to his name too.

Leyton Orient boss Russell Slade has not given up hopes of the top six

Opponents Peterborough are almost guaranteed a place in at least the play offs, but the Cambridgeshire outfit still retain hopes of sneaking up automatically.

It would echo their achievement of two years ago, when Darren Ferguson guided Posh to successive promotions into the Championship - where they endured a nightmare campaign.

Now Ferguson - after a calamitous 12 months at Preston North End - is back in charge and is once more competing for promotion with the London Road outfit.

He assumed control after United appeared to be losing direction under Gary Johnson with the team, while potent going forwards, leaking goals at an alarming rate. Just three defeats in 18 have been suffered since Ferguson's return though.

Posh even went on a sequence of four consecutive clean sheets. However, their defensive frailties - 69 goals have been leaked - are never far away though, and were typified by them throwing a 3-1 lead against Bournemouth recently.

With League One's top scorer in 25-goal man Craig Mackail Smith in their ranks though, Ferguson's free scoring team have an attacking arsenal that can often be enough to overpower their divisional opponents.

This is a big game for both teams. Arguably more so for Posh though, who know they can't afford to drop any more points if they are to make the top two and gain automatic promotion.

I'm going to back Peterborough to continue the chase and end Orient's faint top six chances. Their attacking power should be too much for an Orient side whose best form this season is behind them.

Nobes' Prediction: Leyton Orient 1 Peterborough United 3

Gandhi, Brandy, and a Waldorf Salad

2011-04-20T08:41:00.005+01:00

Nobes on why Brighton & Hove Albion's title success is not only good news for the Seagulls but for the lower leagues in general.

Under Gus Poyet, Brighton have achieved success with a stylish brand of football

The match was a 1-1 draw in October against South Coast rivals Bournemouth, and some Brighton fans had expressed their unhappiness from the stands about their team's patient style of play.

After the game, Seagulls boss Gus Poyet said he wouldn't be listening to supporters calling for balls to be launched forward more quickly, and warned any player doing so that they'd be out of his starting line-up.

Some criticised his stubbornness but, in the end, the Uruguayan has been vindicated in his approach, with Brighton's weekend win at Walsall clinching them the League One title as convincing winners of the third tier with games to spare.

For Albion, a club moving forward both on and off the field of play, it's an achievement which will be celebrated and cherished, especially in the manner it has been achieved.

Brighton's taking of top spot should also be a cause for celebration for all purists and advocates of playing the beautiful game the right way though.

For too long the myth that you must fight and scrap your way out of the lower divisions has been perpetuated by the media. The publicity Poyet's men have attracted this season has now put paid to that.

However, they are by no means the first side to do so, following in a line of managers who encourage their side to play the ball on the deck, rather than hitting it long and playing percentages.

True, not all of them have played in such a patient style as Albion, but they also haven't relied on brute force and physicality to get them out of the lower leagues and into the Championship.

Surely Brighton's success now must herald the start of a new approach. It's time to boot the idea of having to play direct, rather than the ball itself, into touch.

When our own Turls criticised Sheffield Wednesday for the appointment of Gary Megson, he was bombarded by Owls fans with some telling him that playing Megson's long ball style was the only way they were going to get out of League One.

Nonsense. True, Paul Sturrock may have led Wednesday to promotion in 2005 playing that way, but since then a new breed of team have found success at that level.

Indeed, the likes of Southend, Scunthorpe, Swansea and Norwich were all good footballing sides who won League One. Particularly the Swans who, under the guidance of Spaniard Roberto Martinez, played a sublime passing game to sweep to glory in 2008.

Likewise when Sean O'Driscoll took Doncaster into the Championship playing a slow paced, passing game which has subsequently seen the South Yorkshire side compared to Arsenal.

The likes of Bristol City, Blackpool, Barnsley, Peterborough, and Leeds were all preached to pass the ball by their respective bosses and achieved success in the the third tier.

Roberto Martinez's Swansea were attractive League One winners in 2008

All of this season's top six under Brighton are footballing teams too, with Nigel Adkins at Southampton having played his way out of League One with Scunthorpe in the past.

Darren Ferguson, too, advocated such a style winning back-to-back promotions with Peterborough between 2007 and 2009 and is now back at London Road looking to make it a hat-trick of elevations.

Karl Robinson has enjoyed a dream debut in charge of Milton Keynes Dons, and the rookie boss was in no doubt that a passing style would, despite with a reduced deficit, see him improve on Paul Ince's record last term.

One of the surprise packages, Rochdale, are a club transformed under Keith Hill too. When the Boltonian took over at Spotland in 2006 the club were struggling towards the foot of League Two.

Now they're enjoying some of the finest years in their history - and it's made all the sweeter by their approach to the game. Hill's ability to produce attractive and winning football to a budget marks him out as one of England's most promising young managers.

Exeter City too, a club with some of the most meagre resources in their division, are comfortably holding down a spot in mid table and sticking true to the principled slick passing play laid down by boss Paul Tisdale.

It makes a mockery of Wednesday supporters, or fans of any lower league club, who claim that only by playing direct can they achieve success. Even more so given the huge resources on offer at places like Hillsborough.

The story is echoed in the lower leagues where the front runners for promotion are all footballing sides. John Sheridan's Chesterfield, like Brighton, have been head and shoulders above the competition.

Along the way they've entertained fans at the new b2net Stadium with their attractive, attacking approach. Alan Knill had instilled similar virtues in his Bury team before leaving to take control at Championship Scunthorpe.

Graham Turner at Shrewsbury took Hereford up playing football in 2008, and is looking to do the same with Salop this term. Gary Waddock even achieved promotion from the Conference with Aldershot Town by passing their way to success.

The likes of Waddock, Hill, Tisdale, and Poyet are the new breed of lower league manager in a landscape which has changed almost beyond recognition.

When sides in the past scaled the ladder and dared to take on the big boys it was usually achieved by sides like Watford, Wimbledon, and Cambridge United - bullying their way to the top.

True, they could point to poorer pitches - although anyone who has been to Accrington's Crown Ground this season may disagree - but the fact is that lower league teams need no longer take Route One for success.

With any luck, Brighton's title triumph provides the final nail in the coffin for this myth. We should thank Poyet for his stubbornness.

Nobes' Trivia: 7

2011-04-19T08:39:00.003+01:00

For the final time this season, Nobes is back with three trivia questions to test just how well you know the beautiful game. How will you do?

Question One - In Common

At the time of writing, seven Championship clubs have these, seven have them in League One, and there's seven in League Two. What?

Question Two - Odd One Out

Which of these clubs is the odd one out?

Bury, Hereford, Norwich, Peterborough, Sheffield United, Tranmere, Watford.

Question Three - Where's Nobes?

Which Football League ground is Nobes at?

This ground was constructed copying a design from a stadium in Italy.

Outside the stadium is a statue which features running water.

It is notable for having three stands with faces of some of the club's most successful players picked out in the seating.

Nobes will have the solutions for you on May 20.

Big Match Review - Shrewsbury 2 Stockport 0

2011-04-18T08:47:00.004+01:00

Shrewsbury Town 2-0 Stockport County

Saturday April 16, New Meadow, (Att: 5,711)

Two first half goals ensured a comfortable victory for promotion-chasing Shrewsbury and pushed struggling Stockport closer to relegation to the Conference.

Town took the lead after 17 minutes when a long ball out of defence by Ian Sharps caught out the Stockport back line. That allowed Tom Bradshaw the time and space to run through, round Matt Glennon, and knock the ball home.

Three minutes later, and Sharps was the provider again when another raking pass out of defence unleashed Bradshaw, who was brought down by Glennon for a penalty.

Nicky Wroe stepped up to send the Hatters custodian the wrong way and double Salop's advantage.

County struggled in vain to get back into proceedings and another loss leaves them eight points off safety with just four games remaining. Graham Turner's side are now just a point off the automatic promotion positions though.

Prediction League Week 37

2011-04-15T08:58:00.005+01:00

Nobes strengthend his cause for retaining his title in midweek, opening up a nine point advantage over Lakes with time running out on the Prediction League.

This weekend Forest are on the road as Boston and Preston both have matches on home soil.

Norwich City vs. Nottingham Forest

Lakes: Norwich City 2-1 Forest
Nobes: Norwich City 0-1 Forest
Turls: Norwich City 1-0 Forest

Preston North End vs. Sheffield United

Lakes: PNE 1-0 Sheffield United
Nobes: PNE 2-1 Sheffield United
Turls: PNE 3-0 Sheffield United

Boston United vs. Hyde

Lakes: Skyrockets 3-1 Hyde
Nobes: Skyrockets 2-0 Hyde
Turls: Skyrockets 4-0 Hyde

Big Match Preview - Shrewsbury vs. Stockport

2011-04-14T08:41:00.008+01:00

Shrewsbury Town vs. Stockport County

Saturday April 16, 15:00, New Meadow

There's a contest between two teams who may well be both playing their football in different divisions next term on Saturday as Shrewsbury Town play host to Stockport County.

While the Shropshire side are one of a number of sides competing for automatic promotion, their visitors sit rock bottom of the Football League and are running out of games to save themselves.

After coming so close to going of business altogether last year, the Hatters were always expected to be in for a tough campaign, and so it has proved.

Boss Paul Simpson was removed with County just above the relegation zone. However, just 12 points have been collected from the 18 games since his departure.

It's left Stockport propping up the rest and sitting five points from safety with just five games of the season remaining. There's little margin for error left at Edgeley Park.

The Greater Manchester outfit are now under the guidance of former Tranmere manager Ray Mathias, who took over from previous caretaker Peter Ward. He's earned seven points from his three home matches.

More tellingly though, away games under him at Aldershot and Wycombe have proved fruitless and no side has lost more on the road this season than the Hatters with 14 defeats from their 20 away matches.

Key performers for Stockport this season have been midfielders Greg Tansey and Paul Turnbull, with fourteen goals between them. Anthony Elding, in his second stint with the club, is also a threat going forwards.

Graham Turner's Shrewsbury are in the thick of the promotion contest

Their hosts at the weekend came into the game in much better shape, with Town currently lying outside the automatic places in 4th, just three points off third place.

It's been a successful return for boss Graham Turner to Salop, whom he took to promotion to the second tier of English football over 30 years ago. A third promotion at the club is now a distinct possibility.

The experienced boss had been targeting the league title a couple of months ago, speaking bullishly about his team's chances as well as casting doubt over leaders Chesterfield's bottle.

He's been proved badly misguided on both of those fronts, and a poor run of one in six threatened to scupper Shrewsbury's top three chances altogether.

However, they have since recovered and prior to last weekend's 3-0 loss at Aldershot, Turner's side had won three on the spin to improve their automatic promotion hopes.

With just three home defeats and only 18 goals conceded at the New Meadow, they will be tough opponents for Stockport. Midfielder Mark Wright, with 12 goals, is also typical of the many goal threats Salop have going forwards.

This is a match pitting a side flying high and gunning for promotion against a team fighting for their lives as they seek to avoid dropping into the Conference.

It'd be too predictable of me to go for the obvious result of a Shrewsbury win then, surely? However, while strange results can occur at this stage of the campaign, I can't see one here.

Nobes' Prediction: Shrewsbury Town 2 Stockport County 0

From The Ground Up

2011-04-13T08:30:00.016+01:00

With Chesterfield set to crown their debut season in the b2net Stadium as League Two champions, Nobes looks at how other clubs did after they move grounds.

John Sheridan' Chesterfield are on course to win the League Two title this season

So serene has Chesterfield's unflagging quest for the League Two title been that it's easy to forget the Derbyshire side and focus instead on the more competitive areas of the basement division.

It's a sign of just how imperious John Sheridan's men have been in a campaign that will surely see them crowned as worthy League Two winners and end their four year spell in the basement division.

Even more impressively, it has been done despite leaving their home of years in Saltergate and having to adjust to the new surroundings of the b2net Stadium.

However, as I reported earlier in the campaign, the move seems to have been the catalyst behind Chesterfield's renaissance for a dream debut season.

Not every club has welcomed a new ground in such a positive manner though. Here's my look on how it worked out for some of the others.

Oxford United 2001/2

The Oxen were relegated to League Two in their last season at the Manor Ground and hopes were high that they'd bounce back at the first attempt.

However, life in their new three-sided Kassam Stadium was difficult - losing their first two games in a campaign where they struggled towards the bottom and changed managers.

United ended the season in 21st - winning as many matches at home as they lost.

Leicester City - 2002/3

Having waved goodbye to Filbert Street by crashing out of the top flight, the financially troubled Foxes moved into the Walkers Stadium hoping for a change in fortunes.

And they got it. With a little help from a very generous CVA arrangement, City bounced back to the Premier League at the first time of asking as runners-up to Portsmouth.

Leicester won 16 games and lost just twice on their own patch as it served as the foundation for an impressive promotion under Micky Adams.

Leicester won promotion in their first season at the Walkers Stadium

Hull City - 2003

Hull made the unusual step of switching from their Boothferry Park home to the KC Stadium midway through an underwhelming 2002/3 season.

However, having got to grips with their new surroundings in the second half of their mid-table campaign, the Tigers made amends in 2003/4.

They finished as runners-up to Doncaster to gain promotion to League One with a record of 16 wins and three defeats at their new home.

Coventry City - 2005/6

The Sky Blues signed off from their Highfield Road ground with a 6-2 win and began life in the Ricoh Arena with a 3-0 victory.

However, while their final year at their old ground saw them flirt with the drop, their inaugural campaign at the Ricoh saw them post their best finish to date during ten years in the Championship.

Micky Adams's side won 12 and lost just four of their home matches that season and ended up in 8th.

Swansea City - 2005/6

Ending their final campaign at the Vetch Field by winning promotion to League One, the Swans set about welcoming in their new Liberty Stadium in the same fashion.

Kenny Jackett's men were amongst the front runners all season, albeit a late dip in form saw them having to settle for a place in the play offs.

No third tier side scored more goals at home that year than the Welsh club, who won 11 and lost just three on their own patch. They went on to be defeated on penalties by Barnsley in the play off final.

It was nearly a second successive promotion for the Swans at their new home

Doncaster Rovers - 2007

Like Hull, Rovers decided to opt for the mid-season switch as they changed grounds from the antiquated Belle Vue to the more modern and plush Keepmoat Stadium.

They ended the 2006/7 season in mid table before winning promotion to the second tier for the first time in half a century 12 months later.

Donny won 14 and lost five in their first full campaign at the Keepmoat, eventually succeeding through the play offs with a Wembley win against Leeds.

Milton Keynes Dons - 2007/8

The forerunners of Chesterfield. The Dons finally vacated the National Hockey Stadium and moved into their own home in 2007.

The new stadium:mk was given a rude awakening when Bury rolled into town and beat the Dons in its first match. Indeed, four other sides won there that year.

However, Paul Ince's men did win 11 on their own patch, and their formidable away record helped propel them to a double of the League Two title and Football League Trophy.

Shrewsbury Town 2007/8

Salop had gone out with a bang at their Gay Meadow home, reaching the play off final at Wembley - where they had lost to Bristol Rovers.

They were confident of building upon that when making the move to the New Meadow, and even opened up their new ground with four successive victories.

However, that bright start soon evaporated and they finished the campaign in a hugely disappointing 18th with nine wins and eight defeats in their new home.

Shrewsbury didn't do as well as expected when moving to the New Meadow

Colchester United - 2008/9

Having punched above their weight in the Championship for two seasons at Layer Road, the Essex outfit began life in their new stadium in League One.

However, a poor start to the season saw it take them seven matches to record a victory at the Weston Homes Community Stadium.

That sluggish opening saw them end the campaign in mid table, with just seven wins and 12 defeats in their new surroundings.

Cardiff City - 2009/10

A disastrous end to the previous season had seen the Bluebirds depart from Ninian Park with a 3-0 loss and agonisingly missing out on the end of season play offs.

They bounced back in fine style though, winning their first two games at their new stadium 4-0 and 3-0.

It was to remain a fortress for them, with 12 wins and five losses in a season which took them to Wembley and a Championship play off final defeat against Blackpool.

Morecambe - 2010/11

Like Chesterfield, the Shrimps also began this season in new surroundings. However, they have found life a lot harder than their League Two rivals.

Finishing 4th in their last season at Christie Park and qualifying for the play offs, they had hoped to continue from where they left off at their new Globe Arena.

To date though they've won six and lost eight at the new stadium and are languishing in 15th. A far cry from last season's home form of 14 wins and three defeats.

Prediction League Week 36 continued

2011-04-12T08:50:00.008+01:00

Three points at the weekend boosted Nobes' hopes of becoming the first person to retain the Soccer AM/MW Prediction League crown.

This evening both Forest and Preston are back in action. Once more, three points are up for grabs for a spot-on scoreline and one for the right result.

Doncaster Rovers vs. Preston North End

Lakes: Doncaster Rovers 1-3 PNE
Nobes: Doncaster Rovers 1-2 PNE
Turls: Doncaster Rovers 0-2 PNE

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley

Lakes: Forest 1-0 Burnley
Nobes: Forest 2-0 Burnley
Turls: Forest 1-1 Burnley

Big Match Review - Nottingham Forest 3 Reading 4

2011-04-11T08:48:00.003+01:00

Nottingham Forest 3-4 Reading

Saturday April 9, City Ground, (Att: 22,495)

An goal in injury time from Simon Church handed Reading a crucial victory over top six rivals Nottingham Forest as they edged an enthralling encounter at the City Ground.

The visitors took the lead on 19 minutes - Ian Harte once again showing his skill from a dead ball situation to swerve a free kick past Forest's Lee Camp and into the net.

However, Billy Davies's side drew level just before the interval when Kris Boyd converted a penalty after Lewis McGugan was tripped in the box by Mikele Leigertwood.

And six minutes into the second period Forest were ahead. Rob Earnshaw's shot across goal beat Alex McCarthy and went in off the post.

Reading's riposte was almost immediate though, with Jem Karacan looping a header over Camp from a corner to restore parity.

Just past the hour mark, the Royals were back in front courtesy of Jimmy Kebe pouncing on a loose ball in the box after Camp could only parry an earlier shot.

It seemed like the East Midlands side had saved a point with two minutes of normal time remaining though. This time McGugan netting from the spot after a foul on Chris Gunter in the area.

Brian McDermott's team were to have the last say though, when Church got in front of Luke Chambers to knock home a cross from the right during added on time.

There was still enough time, too, for Shane Long to see a penalty for the Berkshire side saved by Camp after Gunter had handled inside the area.

It lifted Reading up to 5th, now six points ahead of a Forest side whose nine game winless streak leaves them 8th and in danger of missing out on the play offs.

Nobes' Trivia 6: solutions

2011-04-08T10:32:00.000+01:00

Last month Soccer AM/MW's Nobes set you three football trivia questions. How did you do on them?

Question 1 - Connect Three

At the time of writing, Norwich City do this best in the Championship, Brighton & Hove Albion in League One, and Burton Albion in League Two. What?

Solution: The answer is they have the highest percentage of filling their grounds.

However, Chesterfield have now overtaken Burton Albion in League Two.

Question 2 - Odd One Out

Which of these clubs is the odd one out?

Bournemouth, Bristol City, Bury, Cheltenham, Hereford, Hull, and Rochdale.

Solution: The odd one out is Hull, who are the only club whose manager didn't formerly play for the club.

Question 3 - Where's Nobes?

Which Football League ground is Nobes at?

This ground is directly adjacent to a railway line.

In the early 20th century a couple of opposition sides refused to play FA Cup games there because they complained that the pitch wasn't long enough.

Its name is often mis-pronounced.

Solution: Nobes was at Exeter's St James Park, not St James' Park, as it is often wrongly pronounced.

Nobes will have more trivia for you soon.

Prediction League Week 36

2011-04-08T08:59:00.000+01:00

There were no points scored in the midweek game, meaning Nobes begins Week 36 still holding a four-point advantage.

This weekend all three teams are back in action with Forest on home duty as both Preston and Boston hit the road for away matches.

Nottingham Forest vs. Reading

Lakes: Forest 1-1 Reading
Nobes: Forest 2-1 Reading
Turls: Forest 1-2 Reading

Portsmouth vs. Preston North End

Lakes: Portsmouth 1-0 PNE
Nobes: Portsmouth 1-1 PNE
Turls: Portsmouth 1-2 PNE

AFC Telford United vs. Boston United

Lakes: AFC Telford United 2-1 Skyrockets
Nobes: AFC Telford United 2-0 Skyrockets
Turls: AFC Telford United 3-0 Skyrockets

Big Match Preview - Nottingham Forest vs. Reading

2011-04-07T08:48:00.005+01:00

Nottingham Forest vs. Reading
Saturday April 9, 15:00, City Ground

There's a critical game in the race for the Championship play offs this weekend as Reading make the trip to the East Midlands to face top six rivals Nottingham Forest.

It's a clash between two sides who, despite sharing a common goal, are in vastly contrasting runs of form as the season reaches its all important climax.

For Forest, now eight matches without a win after their 4-1 loss at Leeds last weekend, they have hit their poorest spell of the season at the worst moment.

Given they're managed by the wily Billy Davies - who has an enviable track record of getting teams into the play offs - their loss of form has been a surprise as they have slipped out of the top six.

However, the Scot will take great heart from his side's first half performance at Elland Road where they were comfortably the better team before a shocking refereeing decision arguably cost them the game.

He will also be encouraged by the fact that, although no longer unbeaten at home this term, Forest are still formidable opponents on their own turf and sure to provide difficulties for any visitors.

Just one defeat from 18 matches is an indication of their superiority at the City Ground, although they're without a win there since mid-February's success against fellow top six candidates Cardiff.

With striking talent of the likes of Lewis McGugan, Rob Earnshaw, Marcus Tudgay, and Radoslaw Mawjeski too, Davies will know he has a side who, while famed for their organisation, are packed with match winners.

Brian McDermott's Reading have hit form at just the right time of the season

While Forest come into the game off form however, their opponents from Berkshire have propelled themselves into the top six off a great unbeaten nine match unbeaten run.

Once again, they have used a run to the last eight of the FA Cup to help generate momentum in the league and have won their last five matches.

That's helped them hit a season high of 6th place with just seven games remaining, and they will hope to claim a place off spot in order to reclaim the top flight status they lost in 2009.

With only five losses on the road all term and 28 goals notched away from the Madejski Stadium, McDermott's men are one of the most dangerous opponents to host in the second tier.

Much of their recent good form has been aided the goalscoring exploits of Shane Long, with the Irishman finding some long-awaited consistency to accrue over 20 strikes to his name this term.

With the likes of Noel Hunt and set piece wizard Ian Harte in the Royals' ranks too, McDermott will be confident he has enough in his arsenal to extend their season in the end of season lottery.

The Championship is a notoriously tight division with sides very evenly matched. This game is one of sides in hugely contrasting form, but both teams are laced with great quality.

I'm going to go for Forest in this one though. They outplayed Leeds until the referee robbed them and, back on home soil looking to right the wrong of last week, I'll back them for all three points.

Nobes' Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 Reading 1

JPT Final Review - Brentford 0 Carlisle 1

2011-04-06T08:30:00.002+01:00

Brentford 0-1 Carlisle United

Sunday April 3, Wembley. (Att: 40,476)

An early goal from Carlisle stalwart Peter Murphy saw the Cumbrians made amends for last season's JPT Final disappointment against Southampton to defeat Brentford.

Twelve months ago, Greg Abbott's men were swept aside by a swaggering Saints side, but this time they resolutely defended their advantage to snuff out any chance of a comeback from the London side.

In the process, United's second Trophy win in their sixth final, ensured they became the most successful side in the competition's almost 30-year history.

Carlisle began on the offensive and were unfortunate not to go ahead early on when Francis Zoko's flick header from a left wing cross was briliantly tipped wide by Bees keeper Simon Moore.

However, United weren't to denied for much longer when, from their fourth corner of the game, Murphy was on hand to control a Zoko header and volley the ball home.

The Londoners tried to respond with a Sam Saunders free kick narrowly wide and then the same man lashed an effort from outside the area off target.

Nicky Forster's side tried to push for a leveller in the second period and came close when Jeffrey Schlupp fashioned an opening for himself only for his shot to come back off the post.

The Bees ended the game with 10 men after Toumani Diagouraga's sending off with three minutes of normal time remaining.

It ensured Carlisle saw out the last few minutes and secured their first Trophy success since 1997.

Destiny Calling

2011-04-05T10:40:00.001+01:00

With Northampton Town struggling at the wrong end of League Two, Nobes looks at the concept of fate and destiny in football - and whether it's about to catch up with the Cobblers.

Northampton boss Gary Johnson is aiming to keep his side in League Two

Albert Einstein once remarked that: "Everything is determined, the beginning as well as the end, by forces over which we have no control."

It's what we refer to as fate, a pre-determined destiny that, no matter what we do, we cannot prevent. It is inevitable, unstoppable, and is simply a question of 'when' and not 'if.'

Commentators often refer to the "Footballing Gods" which, depending on the luck a side gets, are either smiling on a team, or not. Not even the beautiful game, it seems, can escape the inescapable.

It is, perhaps, the fear that should be permeating through every Northampton Town fan right now. The Cobblers are currently on a run of 13 games without a win, and are struggling to gain any momentum under new boss Gary Johnson.

After Barnet's surprise win at fellow strugglers Burton at the weekend, Town sit just four points above the League Two drop zone, anxiously looking over their shoulder as they get sucked into a scrap for survival.

Tonight they travel to Burton themselves in a crunch game which, if lost, will have Northampton fans of a certain age casting their minds back ago to 1994 when their side finished bottom of the entire Football League.

However, they were granted a reprieve because the ground of Conference champions Kidderminster Harriers wasn't deemed good enough to gain entry to the 92 club.

Ever since, Cobblers have established themselves a yo-yo side between the third and fourth tiers, either battling the drop in League One or making a push for promotion from League Two.

However, this term, despite upsetting Liverpool at Anfield in the League Cup, Town have endured a tough campaign. It saw playing legend Ian Sampson removed as manager last month, with the experienced Gary Johnson brought in to replace him.

The former Bristol City and Peterborough boss, who won the basement division with Yeovil in 2005, has struggled to turn around fortunes at Sixfields though. Relegation cannot be ruled out.

Enter fate to play its part in a surprisingly intriguing fight against relegation into the Non Leagues. History does not make pretty reading for the Northamptonshire outfit.

Northampton were one of five sides in the '90s who, because of other clubs going bust or Conference Champions denied promotion, despite finishing bottom of the Football League weren't relegated.

In 1991, the demise of Aldershot spared Wrexham the drop. Twelve months later and bottom placed Carlisle were thankful for Maidstone's financial woes causing them to have to exit the League instead.

Then Torquay and Exeter, like Cobblers, were saved from the drop because Stevenage and Macclesfield's respective grounds weren't considered up to Football League standards.

After a lucky escape in 1995, Exeter were relegated from League Two in 2003

Come the Noughties, and fate caught up with all four though. Exeter were the first when, in 2003, they became the first side to be relegated in 23rd after the introduction of two-up-two down between the Football and Non Leagues.

Carlisle, so often the experts at the great escape, finally fell through the trapdoor in 2004, having given themselves one too many a mountain to climb.

In 2007, it was Torquay who slumped to a miserable relegation and a year on Wrexham took the plunge in the Conference - where they remain to this day. Is fate now about to catch up with Northampton too?

It may sound slightly surreal, does fate really play a part in football? However, sport, like life, has a funny way of evening things out.

Having been denied promotion, Macclesfield, Kidderminster, and Stevenage all eventually made it to the Football League. They weren't to be denied the second time they won each won the Conference title.

Indeed, there are many superstitions surrounding the transition between the Football and Non Leagues in recent years.

Kidderminster's spell in the Football League lasted exactly five seasons, between 2000 and 2005. The side that succeeded them as Conference Champions, Rushden & Diamonds, also lasted just five years before relegation in 2006.

My own club, Boston United, also spent five years in the Football League, between 2002 and 2007. Chester City likewise with five years between 2004 and 2009.

Even forgetting the "five year curse" as it became known, there was a feeling when my club were on the brink of relegation that the Footballing Gods were exacting some karma into proceedings.

The irony wasn't lost on us that our place in the 92 was taken by the club we so controversially pipped to the Conference title, Dagenham & Redbridge. They had to take our place, it was written in the stars.

As it had been 12 months previously when Oxford United were relegated to the Conference. When they had joined the Football League in 1962 it had been because of the demise of debt-ridden Accrington Stanley.

Forty-four years later, and the phoenix club from the Lancashire town were on hand to swap places with Oxford again. You can't write scripts like that.

The first ever year of two-down from League Two saw Exeter and Shrewsbury drop down. The two had faced one another on the opening day.

The following season it was Carlisle and York who were facing up to life in the Non Leagues. They had begun the campaign against one another too.

Cobblers can at least console themselves with the fact they lined up on the opening day against Torquay rather than face the seemingly doomed Stockport.

However, when they take to the field on the final day at Morecambe, they will hope in the resort of the notorious quicksands to not experience a sinking feeling of their own. Time to prove Einstein wrong.

Prediction League Week 35 continued

2011-04-05T08:37:00.005+01:00

He's never won the Prediction League before, and he'll probably never have a better opportunity.

Six points at the weekend saw Lakes narrow the gap between him and Nobes to four points as he goes in search of his inaugural title.

Just the one game this evening, and it sees Preston continue their fight against relegation with a game on the road.

Reading Preston vs. North End

Lakes: Reading 2-2 PNE
Nobes: Reading 1-1 PNE
Turls: Reading 2-2 PNE

Big Match Review - Southampton 3 MK Dons 2

2011-04-04T08:45:00.004+01:00

Southampton 3-2 Milton Keynes Dons

Saturday April 2, St Mary's, (Att: 22,377)

A second half brace from Jonathan Forte helped Southampton stage a remarkable recovery to defeat promotion rivals Milton Keynes Dons and move into third in League One.

The Dons took a first half lead courtesy of Gary MacKenzie's header from a corner just past the half hour mark.

And seven minutes into the second half they appeared set to return to Buckinghamshire with all three points when Sam Baldock skipped past two defenders before beating keeper Kelvin Davies at his near post for 2-0.

However, the Saints hit back with two goals from Forte in as many minutes midway through the second period.

First, he controlled a cross from the left before firing low into the net and then he was on hand to tap home when keeper David Martin could only push out a low centre by Dan Harding.

The comeback for Nigel Adkins's side was complete with 13 minutes remaining as sloppy defending saw Lee Barnard beat the offside drop to fire left footed past Martin.

The victory leaves the Hampshire side five points behind second-placed Huddersfield with three games in hand. For the Dons, a place in the play offs now looks like their best bet.

Prediction League Week 35

2011-04-01T10:45:00.002+01:00

One game, no points, no change to the Soccer AM/MW prediction league standings in Week 34.

It means Nobes retains his place at the top - with time running out to prevent the defending champion holding onto his crown.

This weekend see home games for Preston and Boston while Forest are on their travels.

Leeds United vs. Nottingham Forest

Lakes: Leeds United 0-1 Forest
Nobes: Leeds United 1-1 Forest
Turls: Leeds United 1-0 Forest

Preston North End vs. Swansea City

Lakes: PNE 2-1 Swansea City
Nobes: PNE 0-1 Swansea City
Turls: PNE 0-2 Swansea City

Boston United vs. Worcester City

Lakes: Skyrockets 1-0 Worcester City
Nobes: Skyrockets 2-1 Worcester City
Turls: Skyrockets 2-0 Worcester City

Mad World

2011-04-01T08:40:00.000+01:00

Nobes wonders whether Barnet's controversial decision to re-employ Martin Allen really can save the struggling Londoners from relegation to the Conference.

Martin 'Mad Dog' Allen has returned to Underhill seven years after leaving

Nothing should really surprise us when it comes to Martin Allen. Yet, somehow, it never fails to. It's a classic tale of a complex man.

The 45-year-old is certainly one of the lower league's most colourful and recognisable characters. Extroverted, eccentric, passionate. The man revels in ruffling feathers, no matter who they belong to.

He took to life at Brentford like a duck to water, yet was like a fish out of it during a miserable spell at Cheltenham. At Leicester he barely lasted long enough to find his feet under the table, and he failed to get Milton Keynes off the ground.

And then there was Barnet - where it all began for Allen and where he has now returned, seven years after walking out on the Underhill club to join Brentford.

Back then, he was seeking to turn around their fortunes and ensure Barnet weren't a Non League club. With seven games of the season remaining, his mission is pretty much the same. Perhaps some things never do change.

Many at Underhill credit him with laying down the foundations for their eventual success under his successor Paul Fairclough who led the Bees to the 2005 Conference title and promotion back to the Football League after four years away.

Now Fairclough, a temporary stop gap himself after the dismissal of Mark Stimson on New Year's Day, has stepped aside for Allen to return to Underhill.

It was a controversial decision, and arguably speaks volumes about the dire situation the League Two strugglers find themselves in.

They currently lie second bottom of the basement division, five points adrift of 22nd placed Burton, although the Brewers hold three games in hand over them.

In their hour of need, they have called on the services of the man who preached loyalty yet deserted them when a bigger club came calling. Desperate times call for desperate measures indeed.

For a club in a perilous position though, in a strange way Allen finds himself in an almost no lose situation. A tarnished reputation and damaged relationship both have a chance to be repaired.

Keep them up, and he will be hailed as a miracle worker. Put up a brave fight and still go down, and he may well be handed the chance to restore them back into the League at the first time of asking.

No blame will be attached to Allen for failing to turn around a ship that was sinking fast and without a fight after a nightmare campaign that always appeared to be doomed.

The choice of Stimson to guide one of the League's smallest clubs was always a gamble. He had two relegations on his CV at Gillingham, and his principled approach to playing a passing game had to be called into question.

Stimson was shown the door with the Bees staring relegation in the face

A radical overhaul of the playing staff over the summer only served to equip the Bees with a squad which, while high on technique, struggled to meet the physical and robust challenge of more agricultural basement division opponents.

They haven't been higher than 17th all season and failed to win a single away match under Stimson before a loss to Aldershot saw him relieved of his duties at the start of 2011.

Despite since securing two wins on the road, Barnet only managed three wins from 16 games under Fairclough, prompting chairman Tony Kleanthous to now call on Allen to try and achieve the impossible.

It's not an unfamiliar scenario to him either. When he left Barnet to join Brentford, he took on a relegation battle in League One at Griffin Park - managing to preserve their third tier status before leading them to successive play off finishes.

He also joined Cheltenham in 2008 with the Gloucestershire side in trouble at the bottom of League One, but this time was unable to beat the drop as the Robins slumped back to the basement division.

Judging by Barnet's heroic fightback from 2-0 down to claim a share of the spoils against runaway leaders Chesterfield at the weekend, Allen hasn't lost his touch of instiling some fighting spirit into a squad.

He will need plenty of it, allied to some quality, to haul them out of the relegation zone and avoid bringing an end to their second stint in the 92 club after just six seasons.

The fixture list hasn't been particularly kind, with remaining games against play off chasers Accrington, Oxford, and Port Vale as well as Gillingham and Bury sides aiming for automatic promotion.

Only Crewe would appear to provide opponents with little to play for, and then there's the small matter of a crunch game tomorrow at Burton.

A win and the Bees will be dreaming of a great escape. Defeat, and the game will be as good as up for a club who only narrowly avoided relegation last season.

One thing is for sure, Allen is continuing to live up to his reputation. Life really is never dull when Mad Dog's around.

Talking Points - April 2011

2011-04-01T06:20:00.007+01:00

With always plenty to talk about, here's what the lads have had to say for themselves during the month of April:

Mad World
After struggling Barnet re-appoint Martin Allen as their manager, Nobes examines their last gasp attempt at saving Football League status.

Destiny Calling
Does destiny exist in football and could it see Northampton relegated from the Football Leagues. Nobes investigates.

From The Ground Up
Prompted by runaway League Two leaders Chesterfield, Nobes reflects on how other sides have fared during their debut season in a new ground.

Gandhi, Brandy, and a Waldorf Salad
Nobes on why Brighton & Hove Albion's League One title success should end one of the myths of the lower leagues once and for all.

When It Rains...
With Preston's relegation from the Championship confirmed, Lakes reflects on a miserable season and a worrying future at Deepdale.

Big Match Preview - Southampton vs. MK Dons

2011-03-31T08:33:00.001+01:00

Southampton vs. Milton Keynes Dons

Saturday April 2, 15:00, St Mary's

There's a crunch game in the race for promotion from League One at the weekend as Milton Keynes Dons make the trip to Hampshire to take on top six rivals Southampton.

The two sides currently sit level on 65 points in 4th and 5th respectively, although the South Coast team boast a vastly superior goal difference as well as having three games in hand on their opponents.

Indeed, the Saints have played fewer matches than all of their promotion rivals, and will hope they can take advantage in the closing weeks as they seek to gain automatic promotion back to the Championship.

Last term they only missed out on a place in the play offs because of a ten point deduction, but this season they will hope to avoid the end of season lottery for an altogether more positive reason.

Tipped for promotion in pre season, Southampton endured a slow start and were rocked by the early sacking of Alan Pardew. However, under the stewardship of his replacement, Nigel Adkins, they are beginning to show their potential.

They've suffered just one defeat in their last seven games, and have an imperious record on home soil under Adkins - winning 11 of his 15 league games at St Mary's and suffering just one defeat.

With just ten goals conceded at home all term, too, Saints have the best defensive record on their own patch in the third tier.

In the guise of 17-goal striker Rickie Lambert, Southampton also have one of the most lethal strikers in the division, and he is ably supported by Lee Barnard, who has 12 goals to his name too.

Nigel Adkins and Southampton are aiming for automatic promotion this term

Their opponents from Buckinghamshire come into the game in fine form themselves though, having only been beaten once in their last 14 league matches.

It's a run which has propelled the Dons firmly into the promotion mix - itself an achievement considering they cut their budget after last season's disappointing mid table campaign.

That saw Paul Ince resign from his position and be replaced by rookie Karl Robinson. The youngest manager in the Football League has risen to the occasion in spectacular fashion though.

Their challenge has largely been built on not drawing matches, with just eight in their 39 matches. Their away record is, naturally, erratic therefore, including seven wins and nine defeats.

However, Saints will need to be wary against a side that have suffered just one away defeat in 2011 and recently registered impressive wins against fellow promotion contenders Peterborough and runaway leaders Brighton.

Top scorer for Milton Keynes this term is homegrown talent Sam Baldock, with 11, and midfielder Peter Leven with eight goals is another key man for the Dons.

This could be a very entertaining spectacle between two sides who are in top form, like to play good football, and have everything to play for with the season reaching its climax.

It will be tight, but I'll go for home advantage to help Saints to just edge it on the day against a Dons side who have been League One's surprise success story of the season.

Nobes' Prediction: Southampton 1 Milton Keynes Dons 0

JPT Final Preview - Brentford vs. Carlisle

2011-03-30T08:39:00.003+01:00

We continue our build up to this weekend's JPT Final as Nobes previews the two teams involved.

Brentford vs. Carlisle United

Sunday April 3, 13:30, Wembley

The irony isn't lost on me that I'm here trying to make the final of a competition that I have very little affection for sound like one of the season's showpiece occasions.

What's that you say? Turls has already milked it for all it's worth and I can just focus on the actual football rather than glorifying a competition which isn't really worth caring about?

Well, that's a relief. Not least because it would have involved me discovering a heart, but also because, like Mario Balotelli with grass, I have an adverse reaction to any kind of cup competition which detracts from a league season.

Still, I have no doubts that fans of Brentford and Carlisle will be feeling very different in the build up to the 28th Football League Trophy final.

It's a match both will be desperate not to lose, and one in which a win will provide the highlight for what looks like being a season of mid table nothingness for the Bees and Cumbrians.

Not that it's been totally uneventful, particularly for the Londoners. They enjoyed a profitable run to the Fourth Round of the League Cup earlier in the campaign including knocking out Everton along the way.

They ultimately fell to eventual winners Birmingham at St Andrew's and, once out of the cup, quickly turned around their league form which had seen them struggling towards the wrong end of the table.

This was all under the guidance of boss Andy Scott who, in his first two years, had taken the Bees to the League Two title before a respectable 9th place finish in the third last term.

However, the natives were restless at Griffin Park, with the manager coming in for criticism. His biggest crime seemed to be his outspoken belief that "tippy tappy" football wouldn't be successful.

It was no surprise then when Scott was given the axe at the beginning of February after a poor run saw Brentford sliding back down the table - despite them progressing to the Southern Area final of the JPT.

In his place came experienced player Nicky Forster, who has done the rounds in the lower leagues during his career as a striker. He enjoyed the classic New Manager Syndrome, which was enough to see them past Exeter.

Home games against struggling sides Plymouth, Tranmere, and Bristol Rovers were also all won, which has helped lift the Bees into the comfort of mid-table.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of Scott's sacking - and in my opinion it was a sad indictment of the modern game - Forster has overseen an improvement in results and been handed the reins until the end of the season.

Should he steer them to a win in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy final on Sunday, it would make the case for giving him the job next summer even stronger. Don't underestimate just how much this game means to Forster himself.

In a neat twist, the Bees actually hosted Carlisle at Griffin Park last Friday, running out 2-1 winners. They will hope to have gained a psychological advantage over their opponents.

The sides also met on the opening day of the season in the North West, when United emerged comfortable 2-0 victors. Sunday's final really does represent a best of three encounter therefore.

Key men for the Londoners this season have been striking pair Gary Alexander and Charlie McDonald, who have notched up 22 goals between them.

As a rule though, the Bees have largely struggled for goals this season - only twice scoring more than twice in a game.

With them also boasting one of League One's better defences, it would be fair to say not to expect too many goals at the weekend.

This could be a crucial game for both Nicky Forster and Greg Abbott's futures

What of opponents Carlisle though? The masters of reaching the JPT Final are back once again, looking to right the wrongs of last year and actually return home from this fixture with a smile on their faces.

If the winners of a competition were determined by their effort and commitment to it, then Carlisle would win it every year. Indeed, a United boss not taking the competition seriously is frowned upon by the Brunton Park supporters.

Not that the current incumbent of the manager's seat has found it easy to win over the Carlisle fans despite a record which deserves respect.

Greg Abbott - no, not the '80s popstar - took over at Carlisle in 2008 with the club battling against relegation. He ensured they stayed up and last season built on that escape.

The Cumbrians had a solid mid table campaign and topped it off with that JPT Final against Southampton. They have been similarly solid this term, never looking like struggling and never being good enough to challenge for the top six.

This time though, a win at Wembley would surely increase Abbott's support amongst the Carlisle fan base and win around more doubters who still think he is the wrong man for the job.

It would have been fascinating to see what would have happened had Carlisle, 4-0 up from the first leg of their Northern Area final, not actually made it to Wembley.

In the end, they restricted Huddersfield to just the 3-0 scoreline back in West Yorkshire, to reach Wembley in the most underwhelming and deflating way imaginable.

Had they thrown away that advantage though, the knives would have been out for the United boss. Forget Forster needing a win to keep him in his position, Abbott could do with some job security himself.

One of Carlisle's outstanding performers this term has been Francois Zoko. The Ivorian striker is reportedly attracting the interest of clubs higher up the league scored ten goals in all competitions.

The burden of scoring the goals has also fallen on him after the loss of set piece wizard Ian Harte to Reading and the sale of top scorer Gary Madine to Sheffield Wednesday.

Fortunately, Abbott has been able to hold onto the services of midfield maestro Tom Taiwo, who remains a vital cog in the Carlisle team and could be key if United are to emerge victorious at the national stadium.

The Cumbrians have certainly been more dangerous going forwards than their opponents this term, particularly on home soil.

However, they've also been more vulnerable at the back, and in recent away trips conceded four at Brighton before being thumped for six at Peterborough.

With both sides being so close in the League One standings, as well as having beaten one another this season, this match is very difficult to call.

I can't lie, I am biased going into the match, as Carlisle are a club I have a soft spot for, and I would like to see them win the match.

However, I just have a feeling that this may be Brentford's year. They have proved to be a decent cup team, and will have a good backing with a long awaited trip to Wembley being not far for fans to travel to.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see this going the way of the Bees in a tight encounter and adding another disappointing conclusion to a JPT campaign for Carlisle.

Nobes' Prediction: Brentford 2 Carlisle United 1

JPT Final - Brentford vs. Carlisle

2011-03-29T08:42:00.002+01:00

With Brentford and Carlisle United meeting at Wembley for the Johnstone's Paint Trophy final on Sunday, Turls gives his thoughts ahead of the showpiece occasion.

As I sit and hide from angry Sheffield Wednesday fans in my underground bunker, eating tins of red kidney beans and drinking cans of Shandy Bass, I came up with a foolproof plan of writing an article that can in no way vex the Megson Mob.

The Football League Trophy is being contested this weekend as North meets South at Wembley. This has no impact on Wednesday fans because they soon won't be in it as the glorious Gary Megson guides his mighty Owls to League One glory.

But enough about the Total Football that is being seen at Hillsborough and let's move on to the most magical day of the year: Football League Trophy Final Day.

Brentford make the short trip to Wembley to compete in their third JPT Final, having beaten Exeter in the Southern Final. The Bees had a few scares on the way, having to use the non-lottery that is penalties.

They've never won the Football League Trophy and will be looking to banish the demons of defeats in 1985 and 2001. They are a strong outfit and should cause some problems on their day.

They also have an almost identical record to their opponents and actually beat the boys from up North in their most recent fixture.

They'll certainly fancy their chances of walking away from Wembley with the trophy tucked under their collective arm.

I'm not going to dwell on Brentford too much though, because I want to talk about their opponents - who seem to be a permanent attendee of this occasions.

Carlisle United have been to the final of this competition six times. Six! That's twice more than any other club and yet they need a victory to become the competition's most successful team.

Despite going to the national stadium more times than a Club Wembley member, Carlisle have only won the competition once, and that was back in 1997.

Carlisle will be seeking to avoid a repeat of last year's defeat in the final

The Cumbrians got to the final last year, where they had their asses handed to them by Southampton. I happened to be in Cumbria on the day of the final, as I was visiting my fiance's family.

It wasn't a good day, mainly because they thought I wanted Saints to win because I was more southern than they are - and also because I had predicted them to win, comfortably.

Anyway, that's not important. Carlisle are a club who seem to focus on this Trophy every year. They live for the competition.

Why? Is it because they think that they don't have the resources to fight for promotion? Is it because they realise they are too good to get dragged into a relegation battle?

Or is it because the majority of their players recognise that this competition may be their only chance to win a trophy at Wembley?

I don't know the answer to any of those questions, but I do know this - Carlisle United love the Football League Trophy.

I've covered my passion for the JPT before, and Nobes will be putting up his beautiful preview of the game later in the week - if he doesn't I'll give him a kicking.

Carlisle need to win for two reasons - firstly by winning they will become the most successful club in the history of the competition and they need to forget about the three defeats since their last triumph.

Secondly, I'm visiting the fiance's family again this weekend. If they don't win, I reckon the wedding might be off!

Turls' Prediction: Brentford 0 Carlisle United 2

Big Match Review - Port Vale 0 Bury 0

2011-03-28T08:39:00.003+01:00

Port Vale 0-0 Bury

Saturday March 26, Vale Park (Att: 5,510)

Promotion-hunting Bury were happy to claim a share of the spoils after finishing with ten men against a Port Vale side frustrated in their own chase for the play offs.

The hosts dominated proceedings in the first half and were unfortunate not to go ahead when a Tom Pope header came off the bar and Marc Richards blasted the rebound over.

Richards was then denied by the woodwork himself as he slid to meet a low centre from the right only to see the upright prevent giving Vale a first half lead.

The Staffordshire side, under the caretaker management of Mark Grew, continued to press for a goal after the interval but once more were denied by the frame of keeper Cameron Belford's goal.

This time a low cross from Lewis Haldane was met with a thundering drive by Doug Loft. However, his effort ricocheted back off the post.

The Shakers ended the game with ten men after captain Steven Schumacher saw red for his challenge on Anthony Griffith. However, they were able to see out the remainder of the game.

It sees the Potteries side remain 9th, just outside the play off positions. For Bury though, while the draw means they slip to third in the table, they will be more concerned with the speculation linking Knill to the vacant managerial post at Scunthorpe.

Prediction League Week 34

2011-03-25T08:58:00.008Z

No change in the order but, with the season in its final straight, how crucial could a nine point advantage at this stage be for Nobes?

After a blank midweek comes another quiet weekend, with just the Skyrockets in action as the international break sees Preston and Forest off duty.

Solihull Moors vs. Boston United

Lakes: Solihull Moors 1-2 Skyrockets
Nobes: Solihull Moors 1-1 Skyrockets
Turls: Solihull Moors 0-2 Skyrockets

Big Match Preview - Port Vale vs. Bury

2011-03-24T10:41:00.000Z

Port Vale vs. Bury

Saturday March 26, 13:00, Vale Park

Two sides with eyes on promotion from the basement division to League One meet on Saturday lunchtime in Staffordshire as Port Vale host Bury.

It pits the visitors - who currently sit in second - against a Valiants team who, despite recently slipping out of League Two's top seven, lie just five points behind.

That loss of form saw the departure of Jim Gannon from his post as manager after a tumultuous 14-game spell at the helm. Vale won four, drew four, and lost six under the Irishman, who took over from Micky Adams.

It wasn't just on the pitch where things were tough for Gannon, as he displayed a tempestuous attitude alongside his desire to change the team's formation and playing style.

He also struggled to forge a working relationship with the club's coaching staff, including being part of an embarrassing episode where he left the team coach en route to a match at Aldershot last month.

Youth Team coach Mark Grew is now in temporary charge and began his reign with a 1-1 home draw against Hereford, a result which left the Potteries club 9th.

Only a stoppage time equaliser prevented a second successive defeat at Vale Park, although they do still boast one of the division's tightest home defences with just 16 goals conceded.

In strikers Marc and Justin Richards, too, Vale have two forwards in double figures this term and they are capable of giving any League Two defence a problematic afternoon.

Alan Knill and Bury are in a strong position to win promotion from League Two

Problems of their own are exactly what they will face from Bury though, who make the trip to the West Midlands with the best away record in League Two.

The Shakers have won ten and drawn four of their 19 games on the road this term, scoring 37 goals along the way.

Indeed, after successive home defeats to Torquay and Cheltenham, boss Alan Knill may well be relieved for his side to be back on their travels, where they will be seeking to keep a fourth straight clean sheet.

Knill will also be keen, after missing out on automatic promotion in 2009 on goal difference before losing in the play offs, to ensure the Lancashire side maintain the top three position they currently hold.

The Gigg Lane outfit sit four points clear of the play off positions going into the final nine games - but then they had been sitting second in 2009 with just four games remaining.

Without a doubt, the stand out man for the Shakers has been striker Ryan Lowe who recently scored in ten successive matches and is the division's top scorer having registered 23 goals.

This is a match-up between two sides who faced one another on the opening day of the campaign.

On that occasion it went the way of Vale. However, I can see Bury exactly some long awaited revenge this weekend to continue their great away record.

Nobes' Prediction: Port Vale 0 Bury 1

Big Match Review - Torquay 2 Cheltenham 1

2011-03-24T08:34:00.001Z

Torquay United 2-1 Cheltenham Town

Tuesday March 22, Plainmoor, (Att: 2,186)

Promotion-chasing Torquay moved up to fourth in League Two as their fine recent form continued with victory over Cheltenham in this game postponed from Boxing Day.

The Gulls had already had a goal disallowed before they took the lead just before the half hour mark. Defender Guy Branston powering in a header from a Craig Stanley corner to put the Devonians ahead.

Town tried to respond, but chances for Matt Green and Wes Thomas were both spurned as they went into the break behind.

Paul Buckle's men went in search of a second after the interval, eventually doubling their advantage with less than 20 minutes remaining.

Ronan Murray took advantage after Cheltenham failed to deal with a cross in the box to finish put the ball in the net and put Torquay out of sight.

With injury time looming, the Robins did reduce the deficit courtesy of keeper Scott Bevan's error in allowing Danny Andrew's long range free kick to beat him.

However, they couldn't find a leveller and returned to Gloucestershire empty handed. In-form United appear to be peaking at just the right time though.

A Little Goes A Long Way

2011-03-23T08:32:00.007Z

After Championship strugglers Scunthorpe part company with boss Ian Baraclough, Nobes talks about the importance of keeping perspective.

Ian Baraclough was in charge at Glanford Park for just six months

They're not used to sacking managers at Scunthorpe. Not since Mick Buxton left Glanford Park in 1997 have the Iron had to issue their boss with a P45.

It's just one of the reasons why chairman Steve Wharton's decision to axe Ian Baraclough last week - a first for Wharton himself - was one of the most surprising managerial departures of the campaign.

Baraclough, who spent the final four years of his playing career with United - winning two promotions along the way - had only been in charge of team affairs since September when Nigel Adkins left to join Southampton.

The chairman admitted that, although the 38-year-old inherited a squad destined to struggle towards the wrong end of the Championship, recent performances had not only shown a lack of quality but, more worryingly, belief.

Saturday's 2-0 loss at Ipswich, under the caretaker charge of Tony Daws, has left Scunthorpe second bottom of the division, five points shy of Crystal Palace - who currently occupy the final position of safety.

A repeat of last season's escape from the drop, where they secured consecutive campaigns in the second tier for the first time since the 1960s, is looking increasingly unlikely.

However, while it's a statistic which is at the heart of why Baraclough has lost his job, it's also why the Iron must now keep some perspective if they do lose their battle against the drop to League One.

In truth, Adkins was always going to prove a tough act to follow for whoever took over the reins at the Lincolnshire club.

The former physio delivered two promotions - including a title, a final appearance in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, and survival in the second tier during his tenure.

It was also achieved playing an attractive brand of football despite having a budget dwarfed by rivals.

Much of the criticism aimed towards Baraclough has stemmed from Scunny adopting a more direct game in their fight against the drop. All well and good when results are coming, but a noose around a manager's neck when they're not.

Iron fans would also argue that last season's heroics proved that staying up can be achieved by playing your way out of danger.

However, it would be worth pointing out that the loss of last season's top goalscorer Gary Hooper to Celtic along with the departure of midfielder Grant McCann severely weakened United's ranks.

Baraclough also had to contend with the sale of Martyn Woolford to Bristol City in the January transfer window - a decision which didn't aid their fight against the drop in any way.

His capturing of Joe Garner on loan from Nottingham Forest also appeared inspired, with the former Carlisle forward scoring vital goals to secure wins over Sheffield United and Swansea.

It makes the removal of Baraclough from his position appear all the more harsh. After all, their history and resources, not to mention attracting the division's lowest average crowds of just 5,600, aren't of Championship standard.

Nor would relegation be a disaster for the Iron. Under Adkins they were instantly demoted back to the third tier in 2008. However, he then helped them bounce back immediately.

For the club who finished just a few points above the drop zone in League Two in 2004, the history books will show they have spent three of the last four seasons in England's second tier.

Fans who spent years making trips to the likes of Macclesfield and Chester have become accustomed with visiting Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace in recent years - and they don't want to give it up without a fight.

Nigel Adkins brought unprecedented success during his time at Scunthorpe

Relegation to League One next season wouldn't be the end for Scunny, but expectations are now that they should be challenging for a return to the Championship.

Baraclough's tenure suggested he was not the man to lead that expected charge next term, and Wharton must now seek somebody to build on the legacy established at Glanford Park over the past seven years.

However, while it's natural for United to want to continue to punch above their weight in the Championship, just how realistic an aim is it?

Their average attendance would still only place them in mid table in the third tier - and that would be with smaller clubs bringing fewer away fans with them.

While the argument could be made that winning more games would bring more home fans, their average crowds in 2008/9 were still only around the 5,000 mark.

Of course, Scunthorpe have already proved that fan base and resources needn't hold you back when it comes to achieving things. The difficult part comes when consistently trying to punch above your weight though.

Their local rivals Grimsby were amongst a clutch of clubs ten years ago who held down a place in the second tier - looking down on much bigger and more illustrious opponents.

The Mariners now find themselves in the Conference, another such side, Stockport, are on course to join them there next term. Gillingham, Crewe, and Rotherham are all in League Two, which Walsall are battling to avoid dropping into.

Now the Championship is the fifth most watched league in Europe, with two thirds of its membership former Premier League teams, many playing in top class all-seater stadia.

The division below includes clubs like Southampton, Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Charlton, Milton Keynes, and - when they move grounds during the summer - Brighton, all of whom are ready made for playing at that level of football at least.

In comparison the compact Glanford Park, with its capacity of under 10,000 and still sporting a terraced stand behind the goal, sticks out when viewed alongside more grand arenas.

It's why, compared to even ten years ago, clubs like Scunthorpe face an increasingly difficult job to muscle in with the big boys of the English game.

Depending on who comes up from League One, it's entirely plausible that next season's Championship won't see a single side with a four-figure average attendance. That's almost unheard of.

In the era of transfer windows and those with bigger budgets being able to carry larger squads, money is becoming even more important at all levels. Scunny may well find themselves priced out of the market.

The truth is, managers like Adkins who produce attractive and winning football on the pitch to a budget are rare. Throw in his ability to find cheap players and selling them on for a profit, and United's search for another may be an impossible one.

The reality may be that this was Scunthorpe's zenith, years spent competing with bigger and richer clubs that they can reflect upon with pride in the future.

The immediate future must now be treated with realism and looking to ensure that, like so many before them, relegation from the Championship doesn't begin a slide back down to the basement division.

While promotion back is the dream, the focus must be on solidifying in League One. For the club from a county known for its flatness, it's time for Scunthorpe to keep their feet on the ground.

More Than Words

2011-03-22T08:55:00.010Z

Does what managers say really make a difference? Nobes looks at psychological warfare as the season enters its final straight.

Nottingham Forest boss Billy Davies is playing down his side's promotion chances

It's not as snappy as Homer Simpson's "D'oh!" or as recognisable as Victor Meldrew's "I don't believe it."

However, so often has Billy Davies uttered the words that his Nottingham Forest side are "great candidates for the play offs," you'd think he was attempting to coin his own catchphrase.

It's classic behaviour from the Scot who, throughout his managerial career, has been quick to downplay his club's chances despite a managerial record in the Championship that's almost unrivalled.

At Preston he twice took the Lancashire side to the play offs, including losing in the 2005 final to West Ham. At Derby he went one better, guiding the Rams into the Premier League in 2007 during his first year.

Last season he turned Forest from relegation strugglers to the third best team in the Championship before bowing out in the end of season lottery to eventual winners Blackpool.

It's a record which is notable not only for the manager's ability to bring instant success, but also in how it has been accompanied by Davies's almost constant dialogue that his team is overachieving in challenging.

Going into the 2005 play off final, the 46-year-old spoke about how Preston were in "bonus land" against a West Ham side he branded as favourites due to their size, tradition, and history.

The reality was that the Lilywhites had beaten the London club home and away that season and finished above them after 46 games. Preston were no more the underdogs that day at the Millennium Stadium than West Ham.

Again, taking over at a Derby side that only narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, he spoke about having a three year plan for challenging for the play offs.

However, with six games of the season remaining the Rams were top of the division before a late stutter saw them finish third behind Sunderland and Birmingham.

Davies described it as "no disgrace" and remarked that whatever happened in the play offs the season it had been "a fantastic achievement."

For the manager though, another play off contest meant he had to postpone a planned vacation in Dubai as the Rams saw their season extended.

It begged the question if, when making his reservation in the Middle East believing his side's season would already be over, did he do so because he thought they wouldn't be in the top six or, rather, they'd have already clinched promotion?

That's the thing with the Scot, you never know whether he's actually telling the truth. Does he really believe his side isn't good enough or is he actually simply engaging in some managerial mind games.

Along with the phrase "squeaky bum time" it's a phrase which inevitably crops up at this time of the season in context with words emanating from Sir Alex Ferguson.

Leeds boss Simon Grayson believes his side are under no promotion pressure this term

The Manchester United supremo is apparently the master of the mind game, seeking to psyche out opposition managers and teams with the comments he puts out to the media.

Mind you, like the censorship of a Soviet state, history only seems to record the times his mind games worked. Nobody mention Devon Loch.

So what about his fellow countryman, Davies? Just last month, after beating promotion rivals Cardiff to move second, he was still playing down Forest's chances - bemoaning the size of the squad at his disposal.

Since then, the East Midlands side have failed to win in seven - their worst run of the season. In the process they lost their 36-match unbeaten home run and have slipped down to sixth.

Going into the two week international break - something welcomed by the Forest boss - he has been quick to point to Blackpool's late form last season which ended in promotion and has declared the race to be "far from over."

He's not wrong. Forest are only seven points shy of the automatic promotion spots, and still have crucial six pointers to play at Leeds and Norwich. However, why now is he choosing to be positive?

True, he's looking to restore confidence and belief within his ranks after a poor run. Why though, when these particular assets were already high, did he decide against boosting them further instead of continually talking down his side's chances?

It's the delicate psychological balance between confidence and pressure. Too much confidence can be dangerous, but too little can be debilitating. Too much pressure can crush a team, too little can lead to a lack of urgency though.

Davies's track record portrays a man who is keen to downplay expectations, deflecting any pressure off his players and looking to move it elsewhere, preferably to rival clubs.

It's little surprise the driven, yet diminutive, Scot wants to keep his side's feet on the ground. There will be no getting carried away under his watch.

However, while avoiding over-confidence and complacency is important, would there have been so much harm in declaring that Forest were at least the equals of their opponents and had every much a chance as them to earn promotion?

While nobody argued with his assertions that they were way behind Newcastle and West Brom last term, his comments this season don't ring as true.

Forest finished third last season and have a highly talented squad with a blend of both the mental and physical qualities required for promotion.

It's hard to use their current sticky spell as evidence to support Davies's earlier warnings too when the same manager is now declaring himself still bullish over his side's chances of going up.

Forest's seven match run has included dropping points to struggling Preston and Middlesbrough, as well as losing to relegation haunted Sheffield United. They're the kind of results which smack of the kind of complacency he was desperate to avoid.

If so, his words clearly didn't have the desired effect. Or, had he issued more positive re-enforcement of Forest's prospects, they may have walked out believing they would comfortably see off their opponents and done so.

Paul Lambert is striving to find the right balance between positivity and relieving pressure

Nobody knows of course, and I'm the last person to want to point a finger of blame towards Davies who, in this writer's opinion, is the best manager in the Championship.

It's also the case that he's not the only manager looking to suppress expectations and take the pressure off his players as the season reaches its climax.

Simon Grayson claimed recently that there were no nerves in his Leeds United camp and has encouraged his squad to enjoy finding themselves in the promotion mix.

The Yorkshire side were in League One this time 12 months ago, so Grayson's belief that they have exceeded expectations has some validity. He has also suggested the budgets spent by rivals clubs demands they win promotion.

It's a brave statement from a man whose chairman is Ken Bates, but it would be fair to say that, whatever happens in the remaining few weeks, it has been another positive season at Elland Road under Grayson's stewardship.

Down in East Anglia, it's a similar story. After clinching the League One title last term, Norwich are sitting in second and are firmly in the race to secure back-to-back promotions.

Despite being in the play offs at Christmas though, boss Paul Lambert was still talking about just staying up. He then described the club's lofty position as "unthinkable."

He has been quick to dismiss claims his side are in "the driving seat" to finish runners-up to a QPR team whose march to the Premier League has been unflagging.

However, he seems to have found the right balance between keeping expectations suppressed while bullishly declaring he has no fears over his players who he thinks are strong minded enough to handle any pressure.

Contrast that with Davies though, who has consistently lamented Forest's transfer policy and how his squad is lacking.

Politicking with his bosses or just some clever reverse psychology maybe, but one wonders how the Forest players feel when their manager is telling people he doesn't think they can deliver promotion.

After all, you can read a lot into what a manager does and doesn't say and the motivation behind it. It's what makes taking seriously Lambert's recent claims that he "can't influence any other club's players" a bit difficult.

It all comes down to handling the pressure and the less there is to contend with, even if it's just a perception, the better. That's why managers like Grayson will be keen to shift it elsewhere in the run-in.

The fight for promotion has a new front. The war of words has started, the downplaying begun. Don't believe all you hear.

That's because if, come the end of play, one of them does win promotion will they, like Mr Meldrew, really be unable to believe it?